onchainanalysis

Дата анализа: 17/02/2026 ~12:42 EET
Проверка выполнена по авторской 20-балльной модели ПРЕДПАМП (4 блока оценки).
Минимум для сигнала: 15/20 + полный проход Блока 1.
На текущий момент — ни одна монета фильтр не проходит.
Разбор по блокам.
1️⃣ Фильтр вселенной: кандидатов почти нет
Критерии:
Binance Spot
Market Cap < $7B
24h Volume > $80M
Нет unlock >3% supply в ближайшие 7 дней
Исключены BTC/ETH
Проблема — unlocks.
Исключены:
ZRO — 5.98%
STRK — 4.6%
AVNT — 4.6%
ESPORTS — 24.9%
MERL — 3.2%
Это прямое давление предложения.
Такие активы не подходят под модель дисбаланса.
После фильтра остаётся узкий пул,
но дальше они не проходят.
2️⃣ Блок 1: Spot-дисбаланс отсутствует
Требования:
24h volume ≥150% от 7D avg
1h spike ≥200%
Цена < +12% за сутки
Netflow нейтральный/отрицательный
Отсутствие inflow
Факт:
BTC −1.21%
ETH −0.51%
Общий volume +0.36%
OI −0.89%
Нет монет, где:
объём резко вырос
цена при этом стоит
и нет inflow
Если volume растёт — цена уже двинулась.
Если цена стоит — объём не подтверждает.
Блок 1 не закрыт ни по одному активу.
Без него модель не работает.
3️⃣ Блок 2: Деривативы не поддерживают
Требования:
OI ≥ +8%
OI растёт быстрее цены
Funding > 0, но < 0.03
Taker buy/sell ≥ 1.15
Факт:
Общий OI −1.76%
SOL −3.22%
ETH −2.00%
Funding:
BTC −0.0002%
SOL −0.0013%
ETH +0.0017%
Это не накопление.
Это сжатие позиций.
Нет монет, где OI агрессивно растёт до движения цены.
4️⃣ Блок 3: Киты — смешанный сигнал
Плюс:
ETH withdrawals ~$40M
SHIB отрицательный netflow
Минус:
WLD inflow ~$5.76M
UNI inflow ~$1.64M
Нет чистой картины withdrawals без inflows.
Рост активных адресов ≥5% не подтверждён.
Это не скрытый набор.
Это перераспределение.
5️⃣ Блок 4: Социальная активность без денег
X активно обсуждает:
SOL, XRP, DOGE, HBAR, TON.
Но это реакция на уже произошедшие движения.
On-chain и деривативы не подтверждают.
Социальный шум ≠ капитал.
📊 Итоговый скоринг
Spot-дисбаланс: 2–4 / 8
Деривативы: 1–3 / 6
Whales: 1–2 / 4
Соц: 1 / 2
Итого: 5–10 / 20.
Минимум 15 не набирает никто.
Вывод
Рынок сейчас:
в фазе коррекции
после локальных импульсов
без преддвиженческого дисбаланса
Импульс возможен только при:
резком росте OI
объёмном спайке без движения цены
чистом отрицательном netflow
Пока этого нет.
Предимпульсная аномалия — редкое состояние.
Она не появляется по расписанию.
Сейчас её нет.
Ждём подтверждения.
Методология
Анализ выполнен с использованием авторской 20-балльной модели оценки предимпульсных дисбалансов.
Внутренние параметры скоринга и пороговые значения публично не раскрываются.
#Crypto #Binance #Altcoins #SpotTrading #OnChainAnalysis ⚡️ Стратегии : LONG / SHORT, SPOT — как двигается рынок и куда входить—@INVESTIDEA

Bitcoin just touched its mining cost.
That line under price? It’s not decoration. It’s the economic floor.
Miners spend real money; energy, hardware, debt.
If $BTC trades below production cost for long, weaker miners fold.
Hashrate drops.
Difficulty adjusts.
Sell pressure shrinks.

The system self-corrects.
Look back you see same trend:
2018 → bottomed near mining cost.
2020 → wicked below, snapped back.
2022 → tagged it again.
Now? We’re back in the zone.
That’s not random. That’s Bitcoin’s incentive engine.
And here’s the kicker:
Mining cost trends up over time.
More competition.
Bigger operations.
Higher capital intensity.
The baseline keeps rising — which means long-term value drifts upward with it.
Is it a guaranteed bottom? No.

But historically, when price hugs production cost, risk/reward shifts.

This is where panic peaks… and positioning begins.

Bitcoin isn’t driven by headlines.
It’s driven by math.
And the math is getting interesting.
Let me know what you think in the comments
#bitcoin #CryptoMarket #OnChainAnalysis

$BTC is sitting nearly 50% below its October peak.
Fear & Greed just printed 8.
Analysts are throwing out $10K targets.
And yet… retail isn’t gone.
This isn’t just volatility.
This is a cycle stress test.
Let me break down what I’m actually seeing beneath the noise.
The First Thing That Stood Out
While mainstream headlines scream “crypto winter,” something quieter is happening:
Retail flows on exchanges like Coinbase show dip buying.
Spot balances in $BTC and $ETH haven’t collapsed the way they typically do during full-blown capitulation phases.
Now pause there.
In real bear market bottoms (2018, late 2022), retail disappears.
They don’t “buy the dip.”
They uninstall the app.
That hasn’t happened yet.
That doesn’t mean bullish.
But it tells me conviction hasn’t fully broken — and late-cycle corrections often require that final psychological snap.
The $10K Bitcoin Narrative
Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone recently floated the idea of Bitcoin reverting toward $10,000 if equities roll over.
The macro thesis is straightforward:
US equities stretched on valuation
Volatility compressed
Gold and silver gaining relative strength
Liquidity conditions tightening
If the S&P 500 were to retrace sharply, Bitcoin — still behaving as a high-beta liquidity asset — could mirror that downside.
Is $10K insane?
No.
Is it guaranteed?
Also no.
Bitcoin doesn’t move on doom projections.
It moves on positioning, leverage, and exhaustion.
The Indicator I Care About More Than Headlines
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) for long-term holders is sitting around ~0.36.
Translation:
Long-term holders are still comfortably in profit.
Historically, true macro bottoms form when:
Long-term holder NUPL turns negative
Strong hands go underwater
Seller exhaustion completes
We are not there yet.
And that’s important.
Cycle lows tend to form when even the most convicted wallets feel pain.
MVRV Just Entered Accumulation
According to on-chain data providers like CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has re-entered the historical accumulation zone.
The last time this happened in size? Mid-2022.
And what followed wasn’t an instant rally.
It was another leg down before the real base formed.
Low MVRV = undervaluation.
But undervaluation ≠ immediate reversal.
Sometimes it just means you’re early.
I’ve learned that lesson personally.
40%+ of Supply Underwater
Roughly 43% of circulating supply is currently at a loss.
That matters more than short-term price action.
When nearly half the network is underwater:
Weak hands feel pressure
Forced sellers emerge
Strong hands begin absorbing
But here’s the nuance:
Extreme fear can persist longer than most traders can remain solvent or emotionally stable.
That’s where most accounts get chopped.
What This Actually Feels Like
This doesn’t feel like 2019.
Psychologically, it resembles mid-2022:
Retail still somewhat engaged
Long-term holders still profitable
Macro tightening but not broken
Narratives shifting from hype to fundamentals
Valuations being repriced
That tells me we’re likely in a compression phase, not necessarily the final flush.
What I’m Watching Now
I don’t care about dramatic price targets.
I care about:
Are long-term holders distributing or accumulating?
Is exchange supply declining?
Is leverage getting flushed from the system?
Are funding rates resetting structurally?
Are miners holding or selling into weakness?
On-chain absorption shows up before headlines flip.
That’s where edge lives.
My Positioning (Bias, Not Advice)
I’m not aggressive yet.
I’m:
Selective
Patient
Watching for emotional exhaustion
Looking for structural deleveraging
If NUPL turns negative…
If long-term holders go underwater…
If retail sentiment truly breaks…
That’s when asymmetric opportunity historically appears.
What Most Traders Are Missing
Everyone is debating:
“Is $10K coming?”
“Is the bull market over?”
The better question is:
Are strong hands absorbing supply quietly?
Markets don’t bottom when fear appears.
They bottom when fear exhausts.
We’re close.
But we’re not fully broken yet.
And in every cycle I’ve studied, the final flush always feels unnecessary — almost unfair.
That’s usually the opportunity.
If this breakdown helped you see beyond the headlines, follow for more cycle-based analysis.
I don’t trade narratives.
I track positioning.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoCycle #OnChainAnalysis #Marketstructure

$BTC The 7-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has sharply fallen below 1, highlighting that realized losses now dominate on-chain flows. Historically, sustained breaks under this threshold have aligned with periods of emotional capitulation rather than structural cycle tops. Price compression near local support combined with accelerating realized losses signals that selling pressure is behavioral, not structural. In prior cycles—2019, 2020, and 2022—these patterns marked late-stage panic events, where weaker hands were forced to sell while long-term holders accumulated supply, setting the stage for future recovery.
Currently, divergence between loss realization and price action suggests exhaustion among short-term participants. A reclaim of the ratio above 1 would confirm a transition from capitulation to accumulation, signaling that buyers are absorbing excess supply and positioning for the next cycle. Conversely, failure to stabilize could trigger a final liquidity sweep before macro continuation. On-chain metrics don’t predict direction—they map sentiment, and right now psychology is stretched, creating a potential inflection point. Traders watching the ratio, market depth, and realized losses can gain a strategic edge by understanding where emotional selling may end and structural support begins.

#BTC #OnChainAnalysis #MacroInsights

How to follow "Smart Money" wallets

Ever wondered if there’s a secret shortcut to seeing what the most successful traders are buying before it becomes headlines? It feels like having insider info, but it’s totally public!

Imagine you're trying to pick a winning stock, but instead of guessing, you could peek into the portfolios of the most successful investors.

That's essentially what 'Smart Money' wallets are in crypto - public addresses belonging to entities with a consistent track record of profitable trades.

We can track their on-chain movements, like when a big whale scoops up a significant amount of BNB.

But, the common mistake is just copying their trades without understanding the full picture, leading to confusion when prices don't immediately soar.

Therefore, the real secret isn't just seeing what they buy, but understanding when they buy it, and what else they’re doing.

Is it a long-term hold, or part of a larger strategy?

Instead of blindly following, use their movements as a signal to do your own research into the project.

This way, you're not just copying, but truly learning and building your conviction, which feels incredibly empowering because you’re making informed decisions, not just guesses!💡

#SmartMoney #CryptoTrading #WalletTracking #OnChainAnalysis #tradingtips

- Disclaimer: Sharing knowledge and insights as part of learning and growing together. For educational purposes only, not financial advice.

DeepSnitch AI a gagné un sérieux élan, et il n'est pas difficile de comprendre pourquoi. Il se situe à l'intersection de deux thèmes puissants dans la crypto en ce moment : l'IA et l'intelligence on-chain. Une plateforme qui prétend analyser le comportement des portefeuilles, détecter une activité inhabituelle et faire ressortir des motifs avant qu'ils ne deviennent tendance attirera naturellement l'attention dans un marché construit autour de l'asymétrie d'information.
Pourquoi cela devient viral
Une partie de l'élan est psychologique. De nombreux traders de détail ont l'impression que les baleines et les initiés agissent en premier, tandis que tout le monde réagit plus tard. Un outil positionné comme un moyen de "voir sous la surface" résonne immédiatement.
Il y a trois principaux moteurs derrière la viralité :
Le récit de l'IA continue de susciter un fort engagement
La culture de recherche d'alpha récompense les outils de signaux précoces
Le branding de style exposition se propage rapidement sur les plateformes sociales
Lorsque vous combinez l'IA + des analyses de style surveillance + des marchés spéculatifs, l'attention suit.
L'évaluation rationnelle a son importance
La viralité et la valeur à long terme ne sont pas la même chose. Avant de se laisser emporter, il vaut la peine de demander :
La méthodologie de l'IA est-elle transparente et vérifiable ?
Les idées sont-elles propriétaires ou s'agit-il d'une visualisation améliorée des données publiques ?
S'il y a un jeton, a-t-il une utilité structurelle dans l'écosystème ?
La croissance est-elle organique ou motivée par des incitations ?
À mesure que l'industrie mûrit, nous avons vu comment les projets axés sur le récit évoluent au fil du temps. Ceux qui perdurent montrent généralement :
Transparence technique
Documentation claire
Logique de revenus durable
Vrais utilisateurs au-delà des cycles de spéculation
Perspective finale
L'intelligence on-chain alimentée par l'IA a absolument une pertinence à long terme. Une meilleure infrastructure analytique est inévitable à mesure que les marchés deviennent plus compétitifs. Mais dans la crypto, le battage médiatique attire l'attention. L'infrastructure maintient la valeur.
Curieux d'entendre votre avis sur DeepSnitch AI. Discutons-en.
#badr_jo #OnChainAnalysis #BinanceNews #CryptoResearch