🚨 Bitcoin Near $78K. Oil Is Rising. The Market Faces a New Inflation Test.
Markets are entering September with a difficult combination:
AI demand ↑ Oil ↑ Inflation risk ↑ Fed expectations ↑ Liquidity ↓
₿ Bitcoin:
$BTC remains near $78K after losing $80K following Jackson Hole.
The next test is becoming increasingly macro-driven. Rising oil prices could revive inflation concerns, push Treasury yields higher and reduce the Fed’s flexibility.
The chain is simple:
Oil ↑ → Inflation ↑ → Yields ↑ → Dollar ↑ → Liquidity ↓
📉 Stocks: Asia started the week risk-off, with Japan and South Korea falling sharply. Investors are becoming more selective as higher rates challenge expensive growth valuations.
This is especially important for tech: strong earnings alone may no longer be enough if the discount rate keeps rising.
🇨🇳 China: weak domestic demand, property stress and soft credit growth are now colliding with higher energy risks.
Growth ↓ + Energy costs ↑ is exactly the combination Beijing doesn’t want.
🤖 AI: NVIDIA confirmed that AI demand remains strong, but the investment opportunity is moving deeper into infrastructure:
Models → GPUs → Memory → Networking → Data Centers → Power → Financing
The next AI bottleneck may not be model quality or GPU demand.
It could be capital itself.
🎯 My view: this week is becoming a major stress test for Bitcoin.
Watch:
Brent → US 2Y/10Y → DXY → Nasdaq →
#BTC If oil stays above $90, yields rise and Bitcoin still holds the $75K–$80K zone, that would be a meaningful sign of relative strength.
If BTC falls together with Nasdaq, the recent rally still looks primarily like a liquidity/risk-on trade.
September starts with one key question: can risk assets keep rising when money gets more expensive?