Yesterday, the temporary relief in the US government shutdown crisis and strong PMI data (recording 49, higher than the expected 47.7) reinforced expectations that the Fed will maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time. As a result, the US dollar index rose above the 107 level, closing up 0.8%. US Treasury bonds experienced selling pressure, with yields rising more than 10 bps across 5-year to 30-year maturities. The 30-year Treasury yield reached a new high since 2010, at 4.815%. The 10-year yield also continued to climb and is currently hovering around 4.69, reaching a new high since 2007. The three major US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones down 0.22%, while the S&P and Nasdaq rose by 0.01% and 0.67% respectively. Later today (3OCT23 2:00pm UTC+0), the US will release JOLTS job vacancy data, and Fed Vice Chair Bostic expects the US labor market to further weaken.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

Since Monday night at 15:00 (UTC+0), after the release of US data and speeches by Fed officials such as Powell and Harker, the implied volatility in the near term (1 week to 1 month) has started to sharply decline. The upward sloping front end of the volatility curve is gradually flattening. The implied volatility of BTC has decreased by around 1.5% to 3%, while ETH has decreased by approximately 2.5% to 5%. Both of them have returned to a position slightly above 30% volatility.

Source: Deribit (As of 3 Oct 08:00 UTC)

Source: SignalPlus

In terms of trading, over the past 24 hours, bullish spread strategies have dominated BTC trading. Investors have shifted some focus to the medium to long term, leading to a significant volume of trades in bullish triangle spread strategies. Recently, the majority of strategies have consisted of Long Call Spreads and Short Ratio Call Spreads, expressing a view of limited upside potential in prices.

Similarly, for ETH, trading volume has mainly come from two large orders. One is a Long Risky position of 1400 vs 2000 by the end of the year, with a leg quantity of 8000 ETH. Another is a 1900 vs 2000 bullish ratio Call Spread for 20OCT23 (with a size of 5000:10000). If ETH can break through the resistance level at 1900 in the near future, there may be an opportunity to reignite market enthusiasm and challenge the 2000 level again.

Source: Binance & TradingView

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade