2023.10.2 Short rallies
The United States is in constant trouble, and the economic crisis is likely to escalate further.
In the short term, the U.S. government shutdown is a very big negative factor; in the medium term, inflation has failed to meet expectations, and the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a long time even if it does not raise interest rates. This is not only a problem for the U.S. economy, but also a problem for the U.S. debt.
On the last working day of September, the United States released the PCE price index as scheduled.
It doesn't sound like the situation is any worse. Core PCE rose 3.9% in August, which was in line with expectations and didn't look worse. What's more important is that this time it is finally below 4%, setting the lowest level in nearly two years.
But things are not better than expected. Now it seems that inflation is still far away from returning to the 2% target range. The period of rapid decline in inflation data has passed. The downward trend is now very slow and slightly fluctuating.
Therefore, in this case, it is very unrealistic to expect the Fed to cut interest rates.
The Federal Reserve also speaks out through its third-in-command. Williams of the New York Fed told everyone that it may not raise interest rates in November, but that does not mean that the Fed will cut interest rates. He believes that the current interest rate levels will be maintained for a long time.
technical aspect
Daily line: The pressure at 28500 is extremely high. The more it rises, the more it falls. Let’s see if this wave can reach below 2w.
Four-hour line: This is the most optimistic position based on the previous center. Now that the increase has been satisfied, we should prepare for the next 4H decline.
One hour line: At present, the 1H move has not been completed yet. If the back pressure does not break 27200, there will still be a move up to form a 1H level top divergence, and then the waterfall will fall.
Operation plan: continue to hold short positions, the most optimistic is to continue to increase short positions at 28,500, and control the short position liquidation price above 33,000
#BTC
The United States is in constant trouble, and the economic crisis is likely to escalate further.
In the short term, the U.S. government shutdown is a very big negative factor; in the medium term, inflation has failed to meet expectations, and the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a long time even if it does not raise interest rates. This is not only a problem for the U.S. economy, but also a problem for the U.S. debt.
On the last working day of September, the United States released the PCE price index as scheduled.
It doesn't sound like the situation is any worse. Core PCE rose 3.9% in August, which was in line with expectations and didn't look worse. What's more important is that this time it is finally below 4%, setting the lowest level in nearly two years.
But things are not better than expected. Now it seems that inflation is still far away from returning to the 2% target range. The period of rapid decline in inflation data has passed. The downward trend is now very slow and slightly fluctuating.
Therefore, in this case, it is very unrealistic to expect the Fed to cut interest rates.
The Federal Reserve also speaks out through its third-in-command. Williams of the New York Fed told everyone that it may not raise interest rates in November, but that does not mean that the Fed will cut interest rates. He believes that the current interest rate levels will be maintained for a long time.
technical aspect
Daily line: The pressure at 28500 is extremely high. The more it rises, the more it falls. Let’s see if this wave can reach below 2w.
Four-hour line: This is the most optimistic position based on the previous center. Now that the increase has been satisfied, we should prepare for the next 4H decline.
One hour line: At present, the 1H move has not been completed yet. If the back pressure does not break 27200, there will still be a move up to form a 1H level top divergence, and then the waterfall will fall.
Operation plan: continue to hold short positions, the most optimistic is to continue to increase short positions at 28,500, and control the short position liquidation price above 33,000
#BTC