STURMANDOB

#BTC — Similar situation as with ETH. 👀

Below, the liquidation zone remains, so another sweep lower cannot be ruled out.

A scenario is possible where price dips under the $60,000 level to remove liquidity before the next move.

The key is to watch the price reaction after the liquidations are cleared: that’s where potential buyers may show up. 📊🐋

💠 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 ETH — liquidity pinched from both sides

Price 1921, plus 0.43%. The picture for ETH looks more interesting than for BTC: here the clusters are tight and very close to each other. 👀

Above:
— 1.09M around 2220–2360
— 1.54M near 2040–2120
— another layer at 1970–2020, literally within 50 points of the price

Below:
— a large cluster at 1800–1815
— 933K in the 1700–1775 zone

Distance to the nearest density upward is less than a hundred points; downward is about the same. The price is sitting exactly between two magnets, and either of them could trigger first.

Levels: 1968 / 2020 / 2040 on top; 1815 / 1801 / 1774 below.

I also noticed the volume numbers themselves: 1.54M versus 933K. There’s noticeably more liquidity above, and that’s what distinguishes ETH from BTC, where the advantage wasn’t that obvious. But the proximity of the lower cluster balances the odds—reaching it should be faster.

What I do myself: in such a squeezed configuration, I don’t try to guess the direction until the price breaks out of the 1800–2020 range. It’s too tight on both sides, and there will be more false moves than real ones. 🤷

Structural observation, not a signal.

🟠 #BTC / 4H — why a wick is not a breakout

Price 64,900. I’ll cover one moment that cost many positions back in July. 📚

What happened: From mid-July, BTC was building an uptrend structure—each subsequent high and low was higher than the previous one. At the end of July, price dropped to 62.5 and pierced that low with a wick. Technically, the level was lost.

But there was no close below it. The candle went below and then returned; the body stayed within the range. And a structure breaks specifically on a close, not on a wick.

The difference is who leaves a mark. A wick is what happens to the ones who got swept on stop-losses: price touched the level, gathered orders, and moved back. A close below is the majority agreeing to trade at the new price. The first happens within minutes, the second requires volume and time.

Then the market confirmed it: from 62.5, price rose to 65K and has been holding there for a week. There wasn’t a break—there was a cleanup of stop orders under the low. 🎣

Levels now: 65.4 and 66.7 on top, 63.9 and 62.5 below.

A practical takeaway I’m keeping for myself: wait for the candle close. Reacting to a level being pierced in real time is the most expensive habit in intraday.

Watch the structure, not a signal.

💵 #USDT.D — stablecoin dominance is turning downward

Index 8.379%. Today I’ll break down not a coin, but a metric that many people miss. 👀

What it is: USDT dominance is the share of the stablecoin in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. It rises when people move out of coins into dollars and sit in cash. It falls when money comes back into BTC, ETH, and alts. That’s why the chart usually moves in the opposite direction of the market.

Structure: a peak of 9.3% at the start of July, followed by a decline. From mid-July, the index was moving up in a narrowing wedge—typical correction after a drop. Now the price has broken down out of it to around 8.38%.

Levels: 8.20 is the nearest support; below that are 7.85 and 7.55. On top, 8.60 and 8.80—returning there would invalidate the picture.

If the decline continues, that means money is flowing from cash back into coins. That’s also why the correlation with BTC is growing—BTC is just buying the drop for the third week in a row.

One caveat. Dominance is a ratio, not an amount. It can drop even when coins’ prices rise while the stablecoin volume stays unchanged. In other words, the index confirms the move, but doesn’t create it.

Watching the structure, not a signal.

🟠 #BTC / 4H — we’re approaching the trend again

Price: 64,818, up 0.82%. Yesterday’s pullback to 64.2 was bought up, and we’re back at the same spot where we previously turned around.

Structure: the 4H moving averages have turned upward and are moving in a steady bundle—the price has been holding above them for several candles. The volatility bands are widening; the upper boundary is around 65.5. From the 62.5 minimum, the channel upward remains intact, and the lower boundary has moved up to 63.5.

Over all of this, there is still a descending trendline from the old highs. Right now it runs around 66.5–67.0 and is still the thing preventing the picture from fully turning around. Every time it’s been approached since the start of the week, it has ended with a pullback.

Levels: 65.0 and 65.4 are the nearest levels above; then 66.7. Below: 64.0 / 63.9—support from the past few days, and 62.5 is the boundary of the entire move.

As long as the trendline goal holds, any rise remains a move within the correction. It’s a boring conclusion, but there’s no other data.

Third time this week approaching the same level. Either they push it down, or they get tired. 😅

A structural observation, not a signal!

🟠 $BTC / 4H — pullback to the boundary

Price 64,209, down 0.66%. Yesterday’s rise toward 65K wasn’t held—we pulled back again. 😐

Structure: from 58K there’s an ascending channel, and price is currently at its lower third. Above the market, there’s still a descending line from old highs—it runs around 66.5–67K and remains the main obstacle. Between the channel’s lower boundary and the trend line on top, there’s less and less room—the range is squeezing.

The nearest support is 63.9–64.0. This is the level from which price rose yesterday, and holding it now matters more than any upside targets. Below that is 62.5, where the channel’s lower boundary also sits.

On top, the first targets are 65.0 and 65.4; then comes a tight zone 66.7–67.0.

So far, the daily picture isn’t broken: the move up from 58K remains intact as long as 62.5 holds. But squeezing between two lines doesn’t last long—either the trend line will be broken through, or the channel will fail.

Funny how quickly sentiment changes: yesterday the structure looked bullish, and today doubts are back. 🙃

Watch the structure, not a signal.

⚠️ $BTC $ETH — liquidation map: where it’s thin

BTC 64,875, ETH 1,912. I took a look at Coinglass’ liquidation heatmap for the week — the picture is pretty interesting. 👀

The map shows how much money on leveraged positions will be forcibly closed when a certain level is reached. Red is longs from below, green is shorts from above.

BTC:
— A drop to 57,953 wipes out longs by about $5.18B
— The bulk is in the 61,000–64,500 range, right under the price
— Above, toward 71,000, there are about $3B worth of shorts

ETH:
— A fall to 1,703 wipes out longs by $2.85B
— The tightest zone is 1,795–1,860, also right from below
— From above, about $1.5B at 2,100

The advantage is on the long side, and the fuel for the cascade lies under the price, not above it.

What I’m watching:
1️⃣ A loss of 63.5K on BTC — this is where a zone starts in which liquidations can trigger each other.
2️⃣ ETH’s reaction around 1,860: below it is the thickest layer.
3️⃣ Growth without volume — liquidity on top is half as much, so the move will be sluggish.

This doesn’t mean the drop will happen. It only means there’s nothing to slow it down. 📉

Watching the structure, not a signal!

$XRP / 2H — compression at support
Price is 1.0629. Since July 22 we’ve been moving down: from 1.1646 to the current level — minus 8.7% over two weeks.
Structure: the highs are falling one after another, while support 1.0500–1.0535 holds flat. It forms a descending triangle — pressured from above, while the bottom is still being held. The price has reached the lower boundary three times already since July 29, and each bounce has been shorter than the previous one.
Below support lies the low at 1.0450 — that’s where the stops of everyone who bought from 1.05 are. A dense layer of liquidity right under your feet.
Levels of interest: 1.0700 / 1.0960 / 1.1000 from above; 1.0535 / 1.0500 / 1.0450 from below.
What I’m watching:
1️⃣ A break of 1.0500 with a quick return into the range — liquidity was pulled, and the buyer took positions cheaper. This is the only scenario where I’ll believe in an upside reversal.
2️⃣ Breakout without a retest — below 1.0450 there’s no support, and the move will be sharp.
3️⃣ A break of the descending trendline and a close above 1.0700 — then the triangle didn’t play out, and the picture changes.
A triangle with a flat bottom is more often resolved downward than upward. But “more often” isn’t “always,” and the whole point is the reaction right at the boundary. 🤔
Observing the structure, not a signal!

🟠 $BTC / 4H — pressure has eased

Price is 64,417, up 0.53% over the day. Yesterday we sat under 63.7K and couldn’t move — today we took the level and are holding above it. 👀

Structure: those two sell blocks that were pressing all week — 63.5–63.7K and 64.2–64.5K — the price passed right through. Now they’re working the other way, like support. Testing this will be the main event in the next few candles.

Heatmap (map of clusters of traders’ stop orders with leverage):
— Daily: heavy clusters at 65.0K and 67–68K on top; a cushion at 60–61K below
— 4H: about 8.5K is left around 62K; a larger layer is closer to 66K
— Liquidity above is still noticeably higher

Levels of interest: 65.0 / 65.4 / 66.0 on top; 63.8 / 63.5 / 62.5 below.

What to watch:
1️⃣ A pullback to 63.8–64.0 and a bounce up — yesterday’s resistance has turned into support; that confirms the breakout.
2️⃣ A return below 63.5 — then the entire daily rise turns out to be a false breakout, and we’re back inside the old range.
3️⃣ Approach to 65.0–65.4: that’s where the first serious cluster sits, and the reaction there will tell more than the breakout itself.

It’s nice when, after a week of chop, the structure finally gives direction. Only thing is, that’s exactly on exits like this that people most often get trapped. 😅

Watch the structure, not a signal!

🐀 $1000RATS / 30m — a triangle is tightening

Price is 0.04649; per day it’s down 2.6%.

Structure: three consecutive peaks below the prior ones — 0.075, 0.0745, 0.070. From below there’s a horizontal zone at 0.0456–0.0460, which price has already returned to about five times since August 1. A descending triangle: pressure from above, support from below—for now. 📐

Meanwhile, volumes are fading—during compression that’s normal, but it also means nobody yet has the strength for a breakout.

Important note about the repeatedly tested level: each touch is someone’s stops placed just below it. Five attempts = five layers of liquidity under support. The market loves to sweep such zones with one move.

Levels of interest: 0.0500 / 0.0550 on top; 0.04566 / 0.04522 / 0.04283 below.

What I’m watching:
1️⃣ A breakout of 0.0452 with acceleration — under that level it’s empty up to 0.0428; it can be traversed quickly.
2️⃣ A downward wick and return into the triangle within a single candle — then the liquidity is removed, and the priority flips.
3️⃣ A move out above 0.050 — the upper boundary breaks, and that’s a different picture.

A memecoin on the 30-minute chart is a nervous genre. Compression can hold for another day, and resolve in ten minutes. ⚡

Watching the structure—no signal.

🔵 $SUI / 1H — pressed against the upper boundary

Price is 0.6939. Weekly range — 0.662–0.707.

Structure: an ascending channel; for the third day in a row, price is hitting the upper boundary and can’t break through it. But more interesting is what happened earlier: on August 2, the channel was already broken down to 0.662, and almost immediately price returned back inside. It looks like liquidity was taken off under the support (collecting long traders’ stops), rather than a trend break.

Above, there is a zone at 0.699–0.707 — that’s the July 31 high and the short-sellers’ stops accumulated throughout the week.

Levels of interest: 0.6944 / 0.699 / 0.707 from above; 0.6787 / 0.662 from below.

What I’m watching:
1️⃣ An entry at 0.699–0.707 with a quick return below 0.694 — that means liquidity was targeted, and the structure is again looking downward.
2️⃣ Hourly candle close above 0.707 — the upper boundary stops holding, and the picture changes.
3️⃣ Loss of 0.6787 — again the game includes a retest of the 0.662 minimum. A second attempt to reach the level usually goes faster than the first.

Watching the structure, not a signal.

🟣 #GIGGLE / 15m — after the run, we exhale
Price is 34.05. In a day the coin moved down from the 43–45k area to 33 with a bit. A quarter of the value went nowhere. 📉
Structure: on top there’s a sales block 34.6–35.0, from there it was turned around last time. Below is support 33.0–33.2, then it’s fairly empty down to 32.2. The move is stepwise; each pullback is shorter than the previous one — a classic descending structure.
Hitmap (a map of traders’ stop orders clusters with leverage):
— The brightest, yellow bands are around 37.0–37.5. That’s short-seller liquidity; on a bounce, the market can pull there.
— A dense layer 35.3–36.0 is very close above.
— Below, the cushion is thin: a little around 33.0 and almost nothing below 32.4.
Levels of interest: 34.6 / 35.4 / 37.0 on top; 33.0 / 32.4 / 31.4 on the bottom.
What I’m watching for:
1️⃣ A return above 34.6 with confirmation — then the cluster 35.3–36 is calling from above.
2️⃣ A rejection from 34.0–34.2 downward: there are almost no cushions under 33; such areas get passed quickly.
3️⃣ A sharp spike to 37 — more likely a one-off liquidity grab than a reversal.
Separately: the coin is fresh and momentum-driven; liquidity is jagged. Things don’t live here the same way as in BTC. ⚠️
Watching the structure, not a signal!

🟠 $BTC / 4H — hit a ceiling of the channel

Price is 63.7K. For days now we’ve been hovering at the upper boundary of the descending channel, and the breakout impulse still hasn’t come. 👀

Structure: above the price there are two dense sell blocks — 63.5–63.7K and 64.2–64.5K. These are zones where large volume used to be sold (order blocks), and price keeps returning to them as if for a retest.

Liquidation heatmap (a map showing where traders’ stop orders with leverage have accumulated):
— 4H: ~8.4K at 64.3K, a large cluster of 22.5K closer to 66K
— Daily: heavy concentrations around 65K and even denser around 67–68K
— Below, the cushion is thinner: ~8.5K at 62K and large volume in the 60–61K zone

Levels of interest: 63.5 / 64.3 / 65.0 on top; 62.5 / 61.9 / 60.0 below.

What I’m watching:
1️⃣ A false breakout above 64.3K with liquidity sweep of the shorts and a quick return back into the channel — to me, that’s a sign that they’re not letting price go up (yet).
2️⃣ 4H candle close above 65K — then the way opens to 66K, where the fattest cluster is waiting.
3️⃣ Loss of 62.5K — and down, the magnet is the 60–61K area.

There’s clearly more liquidity above than below. The market usually goes where the “food” is. 🍽

Monitoring the structure, not a signal!

$BICO · 15m
Price is around 0.0184.
For almost a full day, the coin slid: from 0.0138 down to 0.0115, quietly and without any events. And then—sudden pump up to 0.0197 literally within a couple of hours.
I understand how it looks when you open the chart and see a candle like that. It feels like the train left without you. Let’s look at it calmly.
On the heatmap, the picture is quite clear. Under the price there’s a dense staircase of bands: the 0.0165–0.0172 zone with bright yellow areas, and below it layers at 0.0145–0.0155. These are positions built up during the breakout.
Above, clusters are rarer: bands around 0.0200–0.0205 and sparse up to 0.0228.
Right now, the price has pulled back from 0.0197 and is consolidating. Here’s what matters to me: if the move continues, there’s fuel from above up to 0.020. And if the pullback deepens, the price will push through the saturated layer, and forced closes there speed up the drop.
Levels higher up: 0.01920, 0.01970, 0.02000. Support below: 0.01660.
What I’m watching:
Continuation: holding 0.0184 and breaking through 0.0192 with volume. Breakdown: slipping under 0.0172, then a tight zone begins. Pause: consolidation 0.0180–0.0195.
Watching the structure—not a signal!

$TUT · 15m
Price is around 0.0203.
For a day, the coin was trading around 0.0172 with almost no movement, and from the night it started a steady climb: 0.0172 → 0.0203, i.e. about +18%. Moreover, the rise was step-by-step with pauses, not one straight vertical candle. This is usually more stable.
The liquidation map here reads pretty interestingly. A dense layer starts right from the current price and goes lower: bright bands at 0.0180, 0.0185, and 0.0187–0.0188. These are the ones who entered during the up-move.
There are also clusters on top, but higher up: the 0.0205–0.0210 zone with noticeable yellow areas.
What I think is important here: the price is currently bumping into the lower boundary of the upper layer. If it breaks through with volume, there’s more “fuel” up to 0.0219. If not, a pullback will move straight through the dense zone from below, and liquidations there can accelerate the move.
Levels above to watch: 0.02135, 0.02250, 0.02383. Support from below: 0.01862.
What I’m watching:
Continuation: a move through 0.0205 on increasing volume. Breakdown: dropping below 0.0200, and a dense layer begins. Pause: chopping between 0.0198–0.0205—which is what’s happening now.
Observation of structure, not a signal 🙏

🚨 #BTC | August — a difficult month for Bitcoin

📉 Over the last 13 completed years, August closed higher only 4 times. The median is -6.99%, one of the worst figures of the year.

🐻 In bearish cycles, the picture is even tougher:

• 2014 — -17.55%
• 2018 — -9.27%
• 2022 — -13.88%

On the charts, you can see how those Augustes ended: declines of 38%, 62%, and 72% by the end of the cycle.

This August closed with a symbolic gain of 0.26%.

⚠️ But seasonality is a weak factor. 13 observations are statistically too few—it's easy to spot a pattern that may not actually exist. What matters more is volumes, liquidity, and levels right now.

👀 According to statistics, September is even worse: median -3.12%.

An observation, not a signal 🙏

$HYPE — two tops? 👀

Price 52.14, minus 0.82%.

I’m looking at the daily chart and I see a structure that’s hard not to notice. Two tops at about the same height, around 75; between them there’s a dip, and both are resting on a shared neckline around 51–52.

If the pattern starts playing out, then 38–40–45 is the move, easy.

A couple of words for those who haven’t traded patterns. A double top is considered a reversal pattern: price twice tried to break through the same ceiling, both times it failed, and the buyer ran out of steam. Usually the signal isn’t the shape itself, but the break of the neckline—i.e., the level below the minimum between the tops.

And this is the most important part: as long as this line holds, there is no pattern formally. It’s just a nice picture on the chart. Half of these formations fade away on their own because price returns upward and breaks everything.

Price is exactly at this boundary right now. The distance between the tops and the neckline is about 23 points, which is why the targets go to around 38–40.

What I’m watching:

Break: a close below 51 with volume—then the pattern is triggered.
Invalidation: a return above 56–57, and the pattern loses its meaning.
Pause: price keeps hanging around the neckline, which can last quite a long time.

Watching the structure, not a signal 🙏

#HYPE 🔥
Price 52,296, minus 0.46%.

The price continues to hold along the trendline. The key level by the end of the month is 45,000—it works like a magnet.

📉 If the trendline breaks and the price consolidates below it, I expect a drop toward the 40,000–45,000 zones.

📈 In the medium- and long-term outlook, the trend remains bullish. This is clearly visible on the weekly chart: despite the current pullback, the price is still within the upward structure that has been building for months.

What the lower timeframes show: on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts there is a clear decline along the moving averages; pullbacks are short and weak. The indicator marks buy points, but so far each of them has been premature.

This reminds me of a simple thing: the higher timeframe trend and the current move can be pointing in different directions for quite a long time. Anyone trying to catch a reversal on the weekly chart while trading on the 1-hour timeframe usually pays for it multiple times in a row.

⚠️ Don’t forget about stop-losses and risk management. In such phases, the position size matters more than the precision of the entry.

What to watch:

Holding the trendline around 52,000.
A reaction in the 45,000 zone—this is the main magnet.
A return above 56,000 will invalidate the current decline.

Watch the structure, not the signal 🙏