做只安静孤独的乌龟

　　Tesla’s plans to roll out a Robotaxi fleet in Nevada in the United States have hit a major setback. The company originally planned to deploy up to 5,000 autonomous taxis in the state, but ultimately received operating permission for only 10 vehicles.
　　In June this year, Tesla filed an application with the Nevada Transportation Authority (NTA), seeking approval to put 5,000 autonomous taxis into operation in Las Vegas. Unexpectedly, however, in the permit documents signed on July 27, the Nevada Transportation Authority allowed it to operate only 10 autonomous taxis locally.
　　The permit also stipulates that these 10 autonomous ride-hailing taxis may operate only on designated corridors along Las Vegas Boulevard approved by the Nevada State Department of Transportation, and their speed may not exceed 45 miles per hour. The most critical point for the tourism industry is this: unless permission is obtained from the airport operator and all required government approvals are secured, the permit prohibits autonomous taxis from picking up passengers within a radius of 0.25 miles of the airport.

　　OpenAI released, on August 18, a statement titled (Developing the model development schedule in an era with key network capabilities). The announcement was also confirmed on a social platform by CEO Sam Altman: the company has paused some advanced reinforcement learning (RL) training in order to ensure that alignment, safety, and monitoring standards match its current capabilities. Altman wrote that model progress has been extremely rapid and that the company had previously promised that it would take action if capabilities were to surpass the safety and alignment pace. The official text attributes this slowdown to two recent developments: first, a Hugging Face safety incident during the evaluation process of an OpenAI model; and second, an internal assessment on August 7 indicating that the unreleased model Astra could reach the “critical cybersecurity capability” threshold defined by the Preparedness Framework. In an interview, the head of safety, Mia Glaese, said that it is still quite a long way from fully resuming normal operations.

　　On Monday, Nvidia announced that it will provide credit support and computing power assurances for OpenAI’s new AI data center in Ohio. The project will be built and operated by SB Energy and located at the PORTS-Pike Technology Park in Pike County. It will be delivered to OpenAI under a 20-year lease agreement. Initial support is for approximately 4.25 gigawatts of IT capacity, with an option to expand by an additional 3.75 gigawatts. The phased rollout is expected to begin in 2028.
　　Deal Structure and Key Terms
　　Nvidia previously discussed a backstop scale of up to $250 billion, but, according to reports, it was scaled down to below $120 billion, ultimately focusing on the initial 4.25 gigawatts.

　　On Thursday, U.S. stocks rose and Treasury yields fell as more evidence pointed to slowing inflation, strengthening investors’ expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates next month.
　　After two straight days of gains, the S&P 500 index set a record high, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.1%. The implied probability of a Fed rate hike in September in the money market fell to below 40%.
　　Although U.S. Treasury yields rose, the auction yield for the 30-year Treasury hit the highest level in about 25 years. Crude oil fell to around $81 per barrel.
　　By the close
　　The S&P 500 index rose 0.7%, to 7,798.99.

　　The U.S. Department of the Treasury released data on Wednesday: driven by a sharp increase in federal Medicare spending and ongoing drag from federal debt interest, the United States’ monthly budget deficit surged to its highest level in more than five years.
　　Not only did the monthly deficit widen sharply, but over the first 10 months of the fiscal year, the cumulative budget shortfall was close to $1.8 trillion, larger than in the same period of fiscal year 2025.
　　In July, the total federal budget deficit was $432.3 billion, up about 48% year over year, marking the largest monthly deficit since March 2021.
　　Federal Medicare spending in the month was $174.0 billion, up from $103.0 billion in June; in the current fiscal year, cumulative spending for this item has reached $955.0 billion. This is also the single largest spending item in July, significantly higher than Social Security payments ($141.0 billion) and net interest on U.S. Treasury debt ($104.0 billion).

　　European natural gas prices have surged sharply. Iran and Oman have held talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but traders do not believe the agreement can quickly restore global LNG shipping.
　　European benchmark natural gas futures rose more than 10% at one point on Monday. Over the weekend, Iran said the deal was “very close,” but it also implied that even if an agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened immediately. This cooled market optimism that LNG shipments would quickly resume, while Europe needs these supplies to replenish its gas inventories.

Special Topic: Focus on the U.S. stock market’s Q2 2026 earnings reports
　　With the summer earnings season drawing to a close, Microsoft has left the market with the impression of disciplined cost control. Its cloud-computing rivals—Amazon and Alphabet (Google’s parent company)—have burned through large amounts of cash due to heavy investment in AI. By contrast, Microsoft not only generated $19.6 billion in free cash flow in the quarter that included June, but also expects to continue producing positive cash flow for at least the next year. This set of results turned investor sentiment around and lifted the stock price by 29% cumulatively.
　　One less-discussed aspect: how Microsoft manages to keep its cash flow positive. The primary reason is that, compared with Amazon and Google, Microsoft leases third-party data-center capacity at a larger scale. Its partners include new cloud-compute providers such as CoreWeave (Neocloud). This approach lowers near-term capital expenditures, but in the long run, companies’ ability to control costs may be weakened.

　　 The Korean Economic Daily, citing industry insiders, reported that LG Group Chairman Koo Kwang Mo will meet with Huang Renxun next week at NVIDIA’s Silicon Valley headquarters.
　　 The two met in Seoul in June and announced cooperation in areas such as robotics, artificial-intelligence infrastructure, and autonomous driving. After that, around 30 executives from LG CNS and other LG departments visited NVIDIA’s headquarters on June 22.
　　 Koo and Huang may discuss areas such as embodied AI and smart factories; they may also discuss details regarding LG’s procurement of Blackwell GPUs.

　Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Federal Reserve should begin a gradual rate-hike immediately to rein in still-too-high inflation.
　During an interview on Wednesday, Kashkari said, “As we get more data, it’s time to start raising rates gradually.”
　At the monetary policy meeting last week, Kashkari was one of the Federal Reserve officials who dissented against keeping interest rates unchanged. He called for raising rates by 25 basis points.
　In a statement released last Friday, Kashkari warned that if policymakers wait too long, high inflation could become deeply entrenched, and the Fed may later have to take more aggressive rate-hike measures.

　　The Pentagon has quietly removed from its public website weapon testing materials released over decades, saying that adversaries might use artificial intelligence to analyze the data. Critics, however, say the move has raised concerns about transparency.
　　In a statement, the U.S. Department of Defense said that on July 30, Amy Henninger, director of the Pentagon’s Office of Weapon Testing, restricted access to non-classified annual reports published over the past 25 years on the status of assessments of major U.S. weapons programs. The Department of Defense said the move was “a proactive measure intended to strengthen the United States’ operational security posture.”

　　Insiders said Anthropic PBC has struck a $10 billion computing-power agreement with Volta Infra Holdings Ltd., an infrastructure startup founded just a few months ago. The move is the latest step by the Claude developer to meet product demand.
　　Insiders said Anthropic has signed an agreement to use data centers managed by Volta, a cloud infrastructure startup backed by Nvidia.
　　Volta announced earlier Tuesday that it has reached a $10 billion agreement with an unnamed AI laboratory and will work with bitcoin miner Bitdeer Technologies Group, which operates data centers, to use facilities in Norway. The deal is for six years.

　　Acting Attorney General Blanch confirmed in writing on Sunday evening that the Department of Justice will give up certain provisions in the agreement it reached with President Trump. The agreement is aimed at settling Trump’s lawsuit against the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. This move is intended to meet the demands of Republican senators, who had previously threatened to block his nomination as attorney general.
　　Republican senators who object to his nomination—Texas Sen. John Cornyn and North Carolina Sen. Tom Tillis—have already stated clearly that they will not support him as attorney general unless Blanch issues a written assurance confirming that the Department of Justice has officially halted a $1.8 billion fund program. The fund is intended to compensate individuals who claim they were unfairly targeted and oppressed by the government.

　　According to an insider, the Trump administration is considering charging international students $100,000 in exchange for a plan to stay and work in the United States after graduation.
　　If implemented, this could cause a more severe impact on student visa holders who have already been hit by recent immigration policies.
　　A White House official said there are no imminent policy changes, but neither did they deny that the proposal is being considered.
　　Once this policy takes effect, many international students would be unable to obtain the highly popular post-graduation visa extension. The extension, called “Optional Practical Training” (OPT), is a core component of the U.S. international student exchange program. It allows student visa holders to extend their stay in order to gain relevant work experience.

　　Swiss commodities trading giant Glencore said in a production report released on July 29 that its marketing division (including energy trading) expects first-half profits of $3.3 billion this year, about double the level of the same period last year. The figure is the second-highest since the energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, and is $1 billion higher than analysts had expected.
　　The sharp increase in performance was mainly driven by severe volatility in energy markets and soaring fuel prices caused by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Since late February, when the United States and Israel launched military actions against Iran, major global oil traders have all reported unusually strong profit levels. Trafigura delivered a profit of $4.1 billion in the six months ended at the end of March, while Mercuria’s net profit doubled over the same period, recording the second-highest first-half profit on record.

　　In the early hours of July 29, Beijing time, U.S. stocks on Tuesday traded mixed. Driven by strong earnings reports, a drop in oil prices, and funds rotating from the semiconductor sector into other market sectors, the Dow closed up more than 500 points. The Nasdaq ended slightly lower. Traders were digesting the latest batch of corporate earnings reports.
　　The Dow rose 537.24 points, up 1.03%, to 52,747.32. The Nasdaq fell 55.17 points, down 0.22%, to 24,876.91. The S&P 500 index rose 15.60 points, up 0.21%, to 7,428.78.
　　The Dow Jones component Sherwin-Williams rose 8.2%. The company had previously reported second-quarter earnings that beat expectations. Beverage giant Coca-Cola shares climbed 5% after its revenue and profits both exceeded expectations and it raised its full-year earnings outlook.

　　Philip Lane, chief economist of the European Central Bank, said the ECB will assess its policy stance in September and may make adjustments.
　　Speaking at a panel discussion in Donegal, Ireland, Lane said that when calibrating interest rates, policymakers will respond based on the data that continues to be released. He said he believes the euro area economy is mainly supported by domestic demand and added that the United States is not the dominant force in global trade.
　　When asked how the ECB should respond to the geopolitical challenges it faces, Lane said, “Our job is more about reacting.” He added that the ECB’s response will be “neither overreacting nor reacting too little.”

　　Starting from the 31st of this month, if South Korean retail investors want to open new positions or add to positions in leveraged products tied to a single underlying asset, whether listed domestically or overseas, they must hold 30 million Korean won in cash in their accounts. Replacement collateral securities, such as stocks, exchange-traded open-ended index funds (ETFs), and bonds, will not be counted toward the minimum base margin.
　　On the 24th, the Financial Services Commission of South Korea said that in order to stabilize market demand for leveraged products tied to a single underlying asset and to protect investors’ rights and interests, it will advance the regulatory measure to raise the base margin ahead of the originally planned schedule, and will implement it formally on the 31st of this month.
　　Previously, when ordinary retail investors opened new positions in leveraged products tied to a single underlying asset, listed domestically or overseas, they were required to deposit 10 million Korean won as the base margin; cash in the account, as well as 70% of the market value of held stocks, ETFs, and bonds, could also be counted as base margin.

　　Brent crude oil prices hover around the $100 per barrel mark. Earlier, Houthi militants launched attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea, opening a new front in the Middle East conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to expand military strikes against Iran.
　　This global benchmark oil price fell on Friday, but it has risen 13.7% this week. In the previous trading session, it recorded the first break above the three-digit level in two months. WTI is trading near $92 per barrel. Trump warned that if ships in the Red Sea are attacked again, he will impose a “major military penalty” on Iran and the Houthis, and told Axios that he is considering launching a “large-scale attack” on Iran.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada is weighing all possible retaliatory measures if it cannot reach an agreement with the United States to avoid 50% tariffs set to take effect next month.
“If an agreement cannot be reached, all options are on the table, depending on the outcome of the negotiations,” he told reporters on Thursday in Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island.
This week, the Trump administration in the United States invoked a law dating back to the Great Depression, threatening 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian products, including electrical equipment, packaging materials, hockey gear, and beer. The tariffs are expected to affect about 5% of Canada’s exports of goods to the U.S., with the earliest start date being August 19.

Special topic: Focus on the U.S. stock market’s Q2 2026 earnings reports
　　Total new orders increase 11% year over year, but orders in Greater China decline
　　Key takeaways
　　Finnish elevator manufacturer KONE remains on track with its full-year earnings guidance despite incurring substantial related expenses due to its proposed acquisition of German rival TK Elevator, as well as restructuring-related costs.
　　Finnish elevator and escalator manufacturer KONE (stock code: KNEBV, down 1.87%) announced that it will maintain its full-year performance target. The company is currently incurring several one-off expenses, mainly related to costs associated with its acquisition of rival German TK Elevator and business restructuring fees.