On-chain analyst Egrag Crypto’s custody release + market cap channel strategy: For XRP to break above, it needs to surpass a market cap of $500 billion. Only then would the price be pushed upward beyond the upper boundary of the long-term channel on the logarithmic chart, breaking above $7. The key variable is Ripple’s custody release cadence—slowing it down means the circulating supply is constrained, providing fuel to drive the market cap higher.
Current price check: XRP at $1.46, up 5.7% in 24h. Against the backdrop of broad synchronized rebounds among major coins like NEAR, it’s performing relatively strong. Using the current price to back-calculate the implied market cap is about $104 billion—still nearly 4x away from the $500 billion goal. Therefore, $7 is a far-future extreme and cannot be used as a direct trading reference right now. You need to wait for custody data to confirm that supply continues to tighten; only then will there be a possibility of the market cap gradually approaching the upper end of that channel. #XRP
Current price check: XRP at $1.46, up 5.7% in 24h. Against the backdrop of broad synchronized rebounds among major coins like NEAR, it’s performing relatively strong. Using the current price to back-calculate the implied market cap is about $104 billion—still nearly 4x away from the $500 billion goal. Therefore, $7 is a far-future extreme and cannot be used as a direct trading reference right now. You need to wait for custody data to confirm that supply continues to tighten; only then will there be a possibility of the market cap gradually approaching the upper end of that channel. #XRP