After experiencing repeated disturbances in the macro markets over the past 48 hours, the crypto market still maintains a high-level rangebound pattern as of today’s midday. Prices have not shown a clear trend-breaking breakout; trading volume has also contracted in tandem. Bulls and bears continue to spar at key levels, and the market is gradually moving from the earlier phase of rapid rebound into a stage of high-level position rotation and structural readjustment.
On a macro level, the Federal Reserve’s policy path remains the key variable that risk assets cannot really bypass. Repeated shifts in interest-rate expectations and fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields have kept market risk appetite under some pressure. At the same time, the demand for safe-haven assets arising from the geopolitical situation has led some capital to remain in a defensive posture.
But note that the market currently has not shown very clear panic-driven withdrawal of funds. It’s more like a game of existing positions due to insufficient incremental capital.
This is also the most worth being cautious about on the current chart:
Price is still high, but momentum has already clearly declined.
If later macro liquidity does not further improve, and price still can’t break through the key resistance area for a long time, then the probability that high-level positions/chips continue to loosen will gradually increase.
Therefore, at this stage, it is not suitable to blindly bottom-fish just because the price retraces. More importantly, we need to wait for structural confirmation.
Big Pie (BTC) analysis: High-level ranging is nearing its end; focus on the 78,500–79,800 range.
BTC is still running within a high-level ranging structure. From the Wyckoff perspective, the market is gradually showing characteristics of a distribution/reallocation phase.
From the Volume Profile:
POC: around 79,200
VAH: around 79,800
VAL: around 78,500
Around 79,200 is the most important current chip (liquidity/position) consolidation center.
If price continues to trade around the POC, it means bulls and bears are still in a state of limited-volume turnover. What truly determines the direction of the next stage is whether price can break away from the current value zone.
First watch 79,800 from above.
If afterward it can break out of VAH with increased volume, and then after a pullback for confirmation continues to hold above, then only the high-level ranging structure would have a chance to extend upward.
On the other hand, if price can never effectively break above 79,800, and volume keeps shrinking, then you need to be alert to insufficient follow-through from high-level buy orders.
Below 78,500 USD is the most critical defense level.
Once VAL is effectively broken to the downside, accompanied by an expansion in volume, the market structure may further shift from high-level ranging to liquidity release toward the downside. The next focus would be around 77,500.
On technical indicators: the 4-hour BOLL continues to contract. Price is running below the mid-band, so the short-term bias is weak.
MACD is below the zero axis, with the two lines sticking together; the histogram keeps switching repeatedly. This indicates that a very clear trend-momentum has not been formed yet.
RSI stays around 46–49, neutral to slightly weak.
KDJ shows signs of a low-level repair, but currently it lacks volume support. Therefore, for the time being it can only be understood as a short-term rebound and repair, not a trend reversal.
So the most important thing for BTC right now is not guessing the direction, but waiting for confirmation after the range breaks.
Above 79,800, look for the validity of a breakout;
Below 78,500, look for continuation of bearish momentum;
Within the range, continue to focus on a ranging approach—avoid chasing price up and cutting losses when selling in panic.
Yiyi (ETH) analysis: Relative strength is still weak; ETH/BTC is the key indicator to watch.
Overall, ETH is still in a passive trend that follows BTC’s movements; it has not formed a very obvious independent bullish strength structure compared with BTC.
For now, ETH’s key focus is resistance around 2,520.
If price cannot effectively break out of this area, then the current rebound is more likely just a technical repair after oversold conditions, not the start of a new trend.
From the technical structure, BOLL is in the lower-band rebound/repair phase. MACD is still below the zero axis. Although bearish momentum has slowed down somewhat, there is not yet enough strong bullish trend confirmation.
KDJ is also in a weak repair state.
Therefore, the most worth关注 on ETH right now is not merely a price rebound, but:
Can ETH/BTC truly strengthen?
If ETH/BTC continues to range-chop in the low area, then ETH’s rise is still mostly driven by BTC’s market.
Only if ETH/BTC shows a clear breakout with expanding volume and forms a relatively strong structure, can ETH possibly gradually shift from “following the rise” to “leading the rise.” Then the altcoin market would have a better chance to see a rebound-with-meaningful-significance.
Midday summary
The biggest characteristic of the current market can be summarized as:
There is macro pressure; prices are high; chips are continuously exchanging, but momentum has not amplified in sync.
So what you most must avoid now is chasing longs just because you see a single bullish candlestick, or panicking and cutting positions just because you see a single bearish candlestick.
Based on the current structure:
BTC: 79,800 is the confirmed breakout level above; 78,500 is the structural defense level below.
ETH: 2,520 is an important resistance in the short term; whether ETH/BTC turns strong will determine the upside room for the subsequent rebound.
In trading, continue to坚持:
Structure > Chipping (distribution of chips) > Momentum confirmation.
Without structural confirmation, don’t place bets early;
Without chip (position) alignment, don’t blindly chase orders;
Without momentum confirmation, don’t treat the rebound as a reversal.
The market is still in a key decision stage.
Be patient—wait for the levels, wait for the structure, wait for confirmation.
A行情 worth taking action on has never been one that appears every minute.
Before an opportunity appears, the most important trading action is really only one thing: wait.