BTC fees down to 1—what was the market doing the last time it was this low?
At 1 sat/vB, it’s basically like nobody is rushing to move. Miners’ willingness to include transactions is very low, which means right now on-chain there’s neither anyone urgently trying to transfer BTC, nor anyone panicking and running. The whole Bitcoin network is basically asleep.
Looking back to August 9th to 10th, BTC hovered around 65,000 for two days, with an up-and-down range of less than one point. ETH was at 1,918, SOL at 76.6—nothing much was happening. The market wasn’t going up or down, and on-chain there were no transfers—these two signals fit together.
But what’s interesting isn’t “quiet”—it’s that while things were quiet, CRV still rose 5.5%, and PENGU jumped 4.6%. The rotation of existing capital is still ongoing. Some people are selling other things and swapping into these. The logical line from the chart analysis I mentioned two days ago hasn’t been broken: there isn’t much water in the pools, but someone is still making ripples a few percentage points at a time.
The fee rate indicator has to be read alongside another metric—the exchange’s stablecoin balances. If stablecoins aren’t moving and fees are low, then it’s just everyone waiting. Waiting for what, nobody knows, but nobody has fled. If one day fees suddenly jump from 1 back to 10 or even 20, then you have to immediately check who is transferring and where they’re sending it. At that point, chasing becomes far more useful than guessing direction like this.
But for now, with this 1 sat/vB, in plain terms, it’s one sentence: the whole network is waiting for the next signal—nobody knows whether it’s up or down.
I won’t guess. Watch the fees—when they move, the on-chain path will be the first real direction.
At 1 sat/vB, it’s basically like nobody is rushing to move. Miners’ willingness to include transactions is very low, which means right now on-chain there’s neither anyone urgently trying to transfer BTC, nor anyone panicking and running. The whole Bitcoin network is basically asleep.
Looking back to August 9th to 10th, BTC hovered around 65,000 for two days, with an up-and-down range of less than one point. ETH was at 1,918, SOL at 76.6—nothing much was happening. The market wasn’t going up or down, and on-chain there were no transfers—these two signals fit together.
But what’s interesting isn’t “quiet”—it’s that while things were quiet, CRV still rose 5.5%, and PENGU jumped 4.6%. The rotation of existing capital is still ongoing. Some people are selling other things and swapping into these. The logical line from the chart analysis I mentioned two days ago hasn’t been broken: there isn’t much water in the pools, but someone is still making ripples a few percentage points at a time.
The fee rate indicator has to be read alongside another metric—the exchange’s stablecoin balances. If stablecoins aren’t moving and fees are low, then it’s just everyone waiting. Waiting for what, nobody knows, but nobody has fled. If one day fees suddenly jump from 1 back to 10 or even 20, then you have to immediately check who is transferring and where they’re sending it. At that point, chasing becomes far more useful than guessing direction like this.
But for now, with this 1 sat/vB, in plain terms, it’s one sentence: the whole network is waiting for the next signal—nobody knows whether it’s up or down.
I won’t guess. Watch the fees—when they move, the on-chain path will be the first real direction.