Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. will release the July Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data and the unemployment rate
Market expectations:
- Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): Expected to rise by approximately 80k–100k
Previous value (June): +57k (significantly weaker than expected, and with a downward revision)
- Unemployment rate: Expected to remain at 4.2% (in line with the previous value)
- Average hourly earnings: Forecast to be around +0.3% month-over-month, and about +3.5% year-over-year.
The current labor market is in a state of “slow hiring, slow layoffs.” Overall, it still shows resilience, but growth has clearly slowed. The Federal Reserve focuses more on inflation persistence rather than just the strength of employment.
Three possibilities:
✅ In line with expectations → consolidation amid range-bound trading
🚀 Significantly above expectations (>130k) → the U.S. dollar strengthens, yields rise, and BTC faces short-term pressure
📉 Clearly below expectations (<60k) → rate-cut expectations heat up, risk appetite improves, and BTC has room to rebound
Volatility is guaranteed—consider staying on the sidelines with a light position. Focus on the actual figures + the unemployment rate + wages + revisions.
As soon as the data comes out, the market prices it immediately—stay steady and don’t chase!
Market expectations:
- Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): Expected to rise by approximately 80k–100k
Previous value (June): +57k (significantly weaker than expected, and with a downward revision)
- Unemployment rate: Expected to remain at 4.2% (in line with the previous value)
- Average hourly earnings: Forecast to be around +0.3% month-over-month, and about +3.5% year-over-year.
The current labor market is in a state of “slow hiring, slow layoffs.” Overall, it still shows resilience, but growth has clearly slowed. The Federal Reserve focuses more on inflation persistence rather than just the strength of employment.
Three possibilities:
✅ In line with expectations → consolidation amid range-bound trading
🚀 Significantly above expectations (>130k) → the U.S. dollar strengthens, yields rise, and BTC faces short-term pressure
📉 Clearly below expectations (<60k) → rate-cut expectations heat up, risk appetite improves, and BTC has room to rebound
Volatility is guaranteed—consider staying on the sidelines with a light position. Focus on the actual figures + the unemployment rate + wages + revisions.
As soon as the data comes out, the market prices it immediately—stay steady and don’t chase!