甜梦讲币

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PIPPIN The air force is crying in the bathroom again... Which big player is causing such a surge!

BTC has once again fallen below the key level of 90,000. This wave of correction is quite strong, and it is currently near a minor support level. However, the strength of the minor rebound is weak, indicating a high likelihood of further downward movement in the short term. Next, pay attention to the support range of 85,000-86,000. If it dips here, I will enter a long position.

The weekend pancake enters a range consolidation; patience is required to wait for definitive signals before entering trades. The recent market seems complex but is, in fact, simple. The complexity lies in the fluctuations that make it hard to grasp, while the simplicity is that the trend is actually a continuous short squeeze.

Due to typically weak liquidity over the weekend, operations should be approached with extra caution.

Two key positions to watch:
The first is the gap below around 87500; if it drops to this level during the day and fills the gap before stopping and rebounding, one may consider positioning for long trades, with extreme rebound levels at 97000-102000. This is a relatively ideal technical formation; do not enter if there is no clear stop signal.
The second is if it cannot break above, then there may be further pullback space, allowing for short trades at highs, with strong support in the 85000-86000 range below.

The weekend is likely to see narrow fluctuations, preparing for next Monday's decline; the market is becoming increasingly quiet, and trading volume has limited reference value, with few opportunities. It is advisable to remain patient and wait for clearer signals to appear!

Currently, there isn't much to say about the market.

A conservative strategy will consider adding one more position if it retreats to 87000.

The large order at 94 is still hanging above.

Let's maintain a low long position approach.

Shanzhai Coin Research
$gps

1. Focused on the field of on-chain security (the first reaction is safety, is there a large profit space? Unlike meme sentiments that take off when in place)

2. The product is continuously iterating and updating

3. Previously, gps was taken advantage of by market makers, who sold off early, resulting in being labeled (st) by Binance.

The important short-term support for Bitcoin is at the 89,900 position. It unexpectedly dropped below that level in a short time. Looking at the trading volume situation, Friday's trading volume is similar to the usual Sunday trading volume, which is indeed surprising.

Next, we will see if the subsequent two 4-hour K-lines can recover the 89,900 level. If this position cannot be reclaimed, the hourly level will revert to a weak zone, and technically, the bullish rebound momentum will weaken.

On a macro level, this may also imply that the market has completed the expected trades for a rate cut in December. Unless there is a larger rate cut in January or significant rate cuts next year, the bullish momentum may not be able to push the price rebound again before the rate cut on December 10!

I somewhat understand the meaning of Binance Blockchain Week; it is a typical reflection of a society based on personal connections:

First, Binance invited a large number of KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) in the form of chartered flights and wine to build good relationships;

Secondly, hundreds of KOLs are queuing up to take photos with CZ and He Yi, which can enhance their credibility and exposure. For example, many KOLs that people may not have noticed before will gain more attention this time because of the photos and videos; the group photo session is also the most critical part of Blockchain Week, it is the essence of the event, and KOLs are very happy to take photos with CZ, and if it were you, you would want that too.

Then, the KOLs attending the conference generally have positive comments about Binance's posts, praising the Zhao couple from various angles, further shaping the personal hero worship of CZ and He Yi in the crypto community, enhancing their influence.

In summary: This week is basically all about news from Dubai; such a high-density concentration of exposure can better promote Binance's values and the values of CZ and He Yi, providing a positive one-way output that shapes a positive personal image and ultimately enhances the Binance brand power.

Many hands make light work.

ETH
Daily Line Breakthrough Trend
Re-test the strong resistance of the daily line (resistance and support switch positions)
Daily line bottom divergence bullish 2 gold
The resistance neckline before the daily line breakthrough
The target for this wave is around 3600

Why can't altcoins rise? Don't say it's because of 'lack of money, lack of liquidity'; that's just the surface.

The truth comes down to two points:

1: The projects lack innovation, all are just old concepts being repackaged, and no one is willing to pay for 'storytelling' anymore.

2: The valuations are outrageous, opening at market caps of several billion, and retail investors are trapped as soon as they buy; who dares to take on that risk?

The result is:

All the funds flow to the top, with 90% of altcoins being ignored;

When project teams slightly pump the price, they get dumped, and they simply give up and stop playing;

New coins are listed and immediately crash, beliefs drop to zero. The market has completely changed:

There are no longer fairy tales of 'holding on with closed eyes and waiting for a hundred times return',

only 'short, fast, and fierce' quick in and out. If you can catch a rebound, you run; if you can't, you're left with nothing.

Be a bit slower, be a bit greedier, and you are completely out.

In short:

The altcoin market of 2025 is not a greenhouse waiting for the wind,

but a blood-soaked arena. Those who can adapt will feast, and those who cannot will be left with nothing.

ZEC has rebounded to the resistance level around 420, and it is time to short again. A short position has been set between 400-430, with a stop loss at 440.

BTC 1H #Consolidation or Pullback
Fast channel model, breaking below the channel to test the channel starting point for a rebound (breaking below the rebound gives a short entry opportunity)
If the rebound cannot break the new high, it is highly likely to continue pulling back
Potential targets 90.7K, 87.7K
If going long
Wait for the pullback at key support levels to go long
Or break 93.8 to go long

The downtrend line of the exchange rate between Ethereum and Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) is about to break, ETFs are starting to net inflow into Ethereum, and whale institutions continue to increase their holdings of Ethereum. If there is a market trend in the future, it is likely to be led by Ethereum. If I manage to break even with Ethereum, I will probably join the ranks of short sellers. There is a high probability of breaking even. After looking around, there are too many people shorting, and they have lost faith.

Open Interest

Open Interest = Long Positions + Short Positions, the sizes of long and short positions are always equal, because as long as there is a buy order executed for a long position, there will be an equal number of sell orders executed for a short position.

The changes in open interest can be distinguished by "New Positions/Old Positions" and "Closing Positions/Open Positions", leading to the following 4 scenarios:

1. In a trending market, if open interest continues to increase, it likely indicates the continuation of the trend. New long positions are being built (buying), and new short positions are being built (selling); conversely, this situation means fierce conflict between longs and shorts, with both sides increasing their positions and significant market divergence. We can use this to help judge that the trend is likely to continue: highly leveraged shorts can easily be squeezed and forced to buy back to close their positions, leading to a large number of buy orders and further pushing the market up.

2. In a trending market, if open interest decreases, it means that divergence is reducing, with losers closing their positions and winners realizing profits. Without external stimulus for new positions, the trend may come to an end. Old longs closing their positions (selling) correspond to old shorts closing their positions (buying).

From the 4-hour chart of BTC in Figure 1, we can see that during the recent downtrend, it conforms to these two principles. In the downtrend marked by the red arrow, open interest continues to increase, indicating fierce conflict between longs and shorts, and the downtrend continues. However, after the drop on 11.21, open interest peaked and began to decline, indicating that the second point mentioned is happening: divergence is starting to decrease, with old longs cutting losses and closing positions in defeat, and old shorts also taking profits and closing positions. The trend is beginning to slow down, likely marking the start of a reversal.

A man who trades contracts, how can he return to a normal life? To be honest, it's very difficult.
My first trade when I entered the market was trading contracts, starting with 30,000 in capital, and within a few days it grew to 90,000. At that time, I felt that making money from contracts was too easy.
Although later due to heavy positions, all-in bets, and stubbornness, the 90,000 turned back to zero, but I was already hooked. Every day I stared at the market, not eating or sleeping, saying "contract traders don’t play," yet whenever there was money and opportunity, I rushed in faster than anyone else. I often found myself in internal conflict while trying to heal, sometimes feeling okay, and other times not, wanting to find a friend to vent and share my suppressed feelings, but I don’t have a friend around who trades cryptocurrencies, and it feels a bit inappropriate to say it. So I swallowed all my emotions as usual, silently opened the trading platform, the cost of growth was too high, stumbling along the way, learning a lesson at every step.
Contracts are, to put it bluntly, fast. With dozens of times leverage, if you bet right in a wave of market movement, the funds shoot up rapidly. It's faster than stock trading, more thrilling than gambling, earning a lot but also losing fiercely.
Stocks can only rise or fall by a maximum of 10% in a day, while contracts can fluctuate by 100% in a day, which is not unusual. And once you’ve tasted the sweetness, there’s only one thought in your mind: I can still turn things around, but the reality is that most people don’t get the chance to turn things around before being cleaned out by the market.
This is also why, once you start trading contracts, it’s really hard to turn back. It’s not because of greed, but because it’s too fast, too exhilarating, too much like a dream. A dream that is too beautiful comes with a high price.
The market is always there, but your capital and opportunities may only come a few times!

SOL is becoming more like the former ETH, perhaps how ETH developed in the past, SOL will develop in the same way.

I have always been curious why the much-rumored SOL Foundation god-tier project from last year has completely disappeared this year. The most absurd thing is that the SOL Foundation's attitude is clearly no longer dedicated to developing memes, which was its original path to success. When BSC memes were jumping so fiercely, they didn't take drastic actions, but instead kept mentioning ICM, CCM... which sound more formal.

I have thought about this issue for a long time, and my final conclusion is: memes have completed their historical mission in the SOL Foundation's positioning, and they now need to go ashore. It's like the first-tier p-marshal made a lot of money through meme pvp and started talking about US stocks, second-tier, and value investment. Accumulating original capital and beginning to squeeze into the old money circle is the way forward.

Memes on BSC have started to resemble the former SOL memes.

History does not simply repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

Today's main battlefield is in ETH
After a surge this morning, Ethereum has entered a resting zone
Currently fluctuating around 3200 waiting for direction

Looking at the liquidation heatmap

There are 132m liquidation positions from 3200 to 3250
There are 163m liquidation positions from 3200 to 3150

Therefore, I think the short positions are likely to push up for a needle
Then slowly decline, creating a double explosion rhythm for both long and short positions

Placed a short order at 3250
Let's see if we can catch a needle

The MEME of BSC that can gain support from Binance falls into two categories:
1. Those that are close to Binance, known as the Binance system, #4 #GIGGLE #BinanceLife, are all included;
2. Those that have trending traffic in WEB2, #哈基米 , #VulgarPenguin, are like this;
Simply discussing narrative significance, Binance currently has no inclination to support these;
#WorldPeace, #CooperationPlan, #Rebirth, #SuccessAtOnce, all have good narrative significance, but none have gained support from Binance~

Does the end of QT mean a bull market is coming right away?

After the end of QT in late July 2019, there were a few days of good market performance
Then the market began to experience frustrating ups and downs
Until just before QE started, there was a 312 black swan event that caused a crash

Some say it might be caused by the pandemic
Actually, I looked into it, and the pandemic has been on the rise since it started

312 was a sudden event, and if we don't consider it
After the last end of QT, there were also several pullbacks that led to the exit of short sellers.

Let's talk about the market for ETH. Recently, it has rebounded strongly.

Recently, BTC rebounded by 1%, while ETH rebounded by 5%.

The main reasons are:
1. This round of ETH fell quite a lot, dropping 46% from its peak, while BTC only fell by 35%.
2. The Ethereum Foundation confirmed that the Fusaka mainnet upgrade will go live on December 3rd, with L2 gas fees reduced by 89%.
3. The net inflow for the ETH ETF turned positive on December 1st at $180 million, reversing the outflow of $1.64 billion in November, with total institutional holdings exceeding $13 billion.

It is clear that ETH's technological upgrades have attracted many Wall Street institutions.

Additionally, the strong demand for rebounds has led to a significant surge in ETH.

I personally have been bullish on the rebound for a week, opening long positions on BTC and continuing to hold.

Everyone should patiently wait with the long positions I hold; I might consider closing my ETH position around 3500.