币道易行

I will open a group here for everyone to communicate and learn together. Friends with ideas can find me in the chat room. $BTC $ETH $SOL

12.9 Evening Thoughts (btc, eth) | Coin Dao Easy Walk
The overall trend still revolves around a consolidation pattern. Ahead of the decision, the market is reluctant to provide direction, with bulls lacking strength to push higher and bears not forming a penetrating force, so the focus remains on the range and capturing reversals.

The structure of $BTC 4 is still a converging pattern, with the Bollinger Bands continuing to narrow. Prices are being constrained at the upper edge of the consolidation channel. Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the expectation of rate cuts has already been priced in, leading to a lack of momentum for further short-term gains.
Key resistance at the upper edge is seen at 92000-92500, and we dare to go up when it reaches that level;
Support at the lower edge is 89000-89500, aiming for the 90000→88000 region.
In simple terms for short-term direction: clear pressure above, primarily short for pullbacks.

Although the daily line of $ETH has seen consecutive gains, the upward momentum at the highs is insufficient. The 4H moving averages are intertwined, MACD momentum is weakening, and RSI has failed to break through 60. Overall, it still resembles a weak rebound structure, remaining within a downtrend channel.
Resistance in the consolidation range is seen at 3150-3180-3200,
while support below is at 3000-3050.
Operationally, it remains: range between 3150-3180, targeting downwards towards 3050→3000.

Researching K-line seems tedious, but once you truly understand it, you will suddenly realize: making your first million in the cryptocurrency world is just like this. Why do so many people keep stumbling? It's not that they can't read charts; they just focus on one cycle, locking themselves into an information blind spot.

The most stable and replicable system I've developed over the past few years is the multi-cycle K-line trading method. The logic is very simple: once you clarify direction, position, and timing, trading becomes smooth.

First, let's talk about direction. The 4-hour K-line determines whether you are going long or short; this is your 'course'. A long enough cycle can filter out noise, allowing you to clearly see where the market is pulling. Whether it's a bullish rise, a bearish decline, or just moving sideways, this cycle can save you from many inexplicable losses. Going with the trend is not just a slogan; it's the foundation of whether you can make money.

Next is position. The role of the 1-hour K-line is not to predict but to define ranges and monitor key levels. Once the trend is established, you use it to look at support, resistance, trend lines, and previous lows; the framework for entry and profit-taking is all here. Many people make mistakes by trying to see trends on the 1-hour chart while looking for levels on the 4-hour chart; if the direction is reversed, the logic gets muddled.

Finally, there’s timing. The real 'pulling the trigger' action happens on the 15-minute chart. You don't rely on it to judge trends; it just tells you when to act. Reversal signals from small cycles, volume release, and breakout confirmations are all your reasons to enter; if you don’t see them, don’t rush to act. Patience is the most important trading skill.

How do the cycles coordinate? Very simple:

First, use the 4-hour chart to set the direction.
Then, use the 1-hour chart to draw ranges.
Finally, use the 15-minute chart to find that precise signal.

A very crucial point: if the cycles conflict with each other, don’t force it; being in cash is always more comfortable than trading recklessly. Don’t get attached to small cycles; if you need to stop loss, then do it; don’t fantasize about turning the tables against the trend with 'operations'. When the three conditions of trend, position, and timing are met, trading becomes naturally easier; if they are not met, no amount of effort can force a trade.

I have used this system for many years; it truly is a system that strengthens through practice and stabilizes through review. Whether you can use it well does not depend on how difficult the technology is but on whether you are willing to look at charts more and summarize more. Charts won’t deceive you; emotions and impulses will. $BTC $ETH $SOL

In the cryptocurrency market, short-term trading is not as mysterious as everyone thinks.
The core of short-term trading is always two things: discipline and execution, not prediction and passion. Over the past few years, I have repeatedly verified six iron rules of short-term trading; following them can save a lot of detours.

First, consolidation always leads to direction; patience is an advantage.
Do not chase during high positions, and do not cut losses during low positions.
If the market does not provide direction, it does not provide opportunities.
The most profitable action during a consolidation phase is often to do nothing.

Second, consolidation is always an ambush area, and liquidations often occur here.
Consolidation can make people anxious, but the real approach is to wait for a breakout and wait for a pullback, not to risk death within the range.
Short-term trading is not about who has a higher trading frequency, but about who can endure more.

Third, buy on bearish candles, sell on bullish candles; going against human nature is an advantage.
Buy when the price drops significantly, sell when it rises steadily.
The vast majority of people panic sell at the floor and exuberantly buy at the ceiling.
As long as you do the opposite of them, your win rate is already much higher.

Fourth, sharp declines often present opportunity windows.
Slow declines wear down emotions, while rapid declines smash structures.
However, high-quality rebounds usually occur after a rapid sell-off.
Opportunities are always found in emotional gaps.

Fifth, pyramid building is the friendliest method for small funds.
In the bottom area, there is no need to go all in; add a little bit with every drop to continuously lower costs and increase profit margins.
This is an effective way to minimize risks.

Sixth, once the market changes, act quickly, decisively, and cleanly.
During a sharp rise and consolidation, first take back the principal, leaving only profits to experiment.
During a sharp drop and consolidation, cut losses immediately, do not hold on stubbornly.
Short-term trading is inherently a fast-paced game; being half a beat slow means losses. $BTC $ETH $SOL

12.9 Morning Analysis (BTC) | Easy Walk

The big pie has been typically 'clinging to the 90,000 line without letting go' in the past two days, moving sideways and grinding, with short-term fluctuations still being the main theme, without providing a clear one-sided trend.

From the hourly level, the previous surge couldn't hold and was quickly slammed back down, with the current price repeatedly consolidating around 90,000, belonging to a typical structure of a surge followed by a pullback, with both bulls and bears unwilling to give in, and the sentiment is also somewhat tugging.

On the 4-hour level, the previous corrective rebound touched the upper track but was directly pressed back down, indicating a clear lack of sustainability from the bulls, who have not managed to take out the previous high; the overall shape has gaps and weak continuity.

$BTC The rebound gives a recommendation for high shorts primarily in the range of 90,800-91,300; just trade with the trend; the lower target looks at the range of 88,800-89,300 first.

In a volatile market, the rhythm is the most important; do not chase orders, high shorts and low longs.

The evening market is clearly influenced by the movement of the U.S. stock market, experiencing a significant correction. The price is currently in the bottom correction zone, and there is still room for a rebound in the technical structure. However, when making trades tonight, it is essential to monitor the fluctuations of the U.S. stock index and U.S. stock futures, as the correlation is very strong.

The key support point for this move $ETH is still looking at the 3080 level.
It is possible to go long based on this level, with the stop loss placed just below 3050. If the rebound comes out normally, first pay attention to the pressure range of 3165—3180.

If 3180 still does not see an actual breakthrough, the market is likely to continue grinding within the range. Once there is an effective breakthrough at 3180, look upwards for the progressive space of 3220—3250.

There is only one risk point below: 3050.
If it breaks, then prepare for the 4-hour test of the lower track at 2980.

$BTC The idea here is not complicated:
The range of 89500—89200 can attempt light long positions, with a stop at 88700.

As it rebounds, still look at the pressure test in the range of 91500—92200.
If this level is successfully opened, the next target is 93200—93500.

In the past few days, ETH has been fluctuating back and forth. To be honest, it's no longer just ordinary range volatility; it feels more like a deliberate attempt to "squeeze out" leverage sentiment. It shot up, triggering a short squeeze of 970 million, then dropped, causing a long squeeze of over 2 billion. The chips are being tossed around repeatedly, yet the direction remains undecided. This kind of market usually only indicates one thing—an important turning point is approaching.

You will find that the price hasn't moved far, but the market's capacity is being rapidly reset. The cleaner the leverage is cleared, the more direct the next trend often becomes.

Next, the focus is still on Vitalik and the Ethereum Foundation. Don't be fooled by their silence on the market; their actions often determine the height of ETH in the next cycle. Vitalik's recent direction is very clear: Ethereum needs to lighten its load. It's not about competing with others on TPS, but rather making the mainnet lighter, stabilizing consensus, and reducing verification costs to allow more nodes to operate. This is not a short-term positive, but it is the core value anchor.

Account abstraction, EIP-7702, and fees continue to be pushed down; these are all laying the groundwork for the ecosystem—not to pump the price, but to make ETH "worthy of being pumped."

The Foundation is more cautious. They haven't crashed the market or made random moves, but are continuing to invest resources into ZK, L2 infrastructure, and MEV reforms—these are the directions that will truly impact the future. Especially MEV, this thing is the shadow financial system of Ethereum. Now the Foundation is seriously working on PBS and market order reforms, which will make staking yields, inflation models, and institutional participation—these core variables—healthier.

So I actually think the current fluctuations of ETH are quite positive. It’s not that it can't rise; rather, it's clearing sentiment in advance, squeezing chips, and making way for the next trend. Once the leverage is cleared, the narrative switches, and L2 expansion, Verkle, and MEV reforms are fully rolled out, Ethereum will enter its "technical reinforcement window."

Looking back later, you will find that this period of torment from 2800 to 3450 is actually building momentum for the real trend. $BTC $ETH $SOL

12.8 Afternoon Silk Road Sharing | Coin Dao Easy Travel

Today, the overall market is relatively strong, with BTC and ETH both continuing to rise.

On the four-hour level, the K line has firmly stood above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the trading volume has also increased. The price is gradually approaching the upper track, and the medium-term upward trend is becoming clearer. The hourly performance is more direct—the short-term oscillation range has been broken, and the price center continues to rise, with bullish momentum being released. In the short term, it shows a clear strong pattern.

$BTC can attempt to take the main position in the 90800-91300 range, following the trend upwards, with a target initially around 93600.

$ETH can attempt to take the main position in the 3090-3110 range, with a short-term target around 3250.

Personal opinion, for reference only, strict stop-loss settings when entering!

I actually reminded everyone of something around Thanksgiving: the real thunder isn't at the Federal Reserve, it's in Japan.

Over the past two months, Japanese government bond yields have skyrocketed uncontrollably. The 10-year yield has soared to nearly a 17-year high, and the 30-year yield has reached an all-time high. For a country that has maintained zero interest rates for twenty years, this is not a normal fluctuation; it's the formal restart of the interest rate era.

Why is the world afraid of Japan raising interest rates? Let's not forget that last July, Japan merely nudged its rates up slightly from 0.1 to 0.25. As a result, U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, and Asian stock markets all plummeted; that was just the power of a “lifted foot.” But this time, it seems Japan is not just lifting its foot; it’s preparing to get up and walk.

Why must Japan raise interest rates? Because this economy, which has been asleep for thirty years, is really starting to wake up. Core CPI has stabilized above 2% for several consecutive months, wage growth has reached a 30-year high, and corporate profits are improving. However, the long-term low interest rates are undermining these achievements, the depreciation of the yen is raising import costs, and CPI is being pushed up while wage increases are being swallowed by inflation. To preserve the hard-won recovery, Japan can only raise interest rates and normalize.

What does this mean? It means that the “cheapest funding pipeline” that has supported the rise of global risk assets for over a decade is about to be shut off.

The core of the risk lies here: the tens of trillions of dollars in yen carry trades are being cornered.
The logic has always been simple: borrow cheap yen in Japan, convert it to dollars, and then buy U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, or real estate. As long as the yen does not appreciate, it’s a steady profit. But once Japan raises interest rates and the yen strengthens, this chain will instantly reverse; the borrowed money becomes more expensive, and the assets priced in yen shrink, leading to forced selling and ultimately a collective stampede.

This isn't theory; it's something that has happened in history.

Why is this time more dangerous?
Because Japanese government bond yields can no longer be suppressed. Interest rates are determined by the market, not something a central bank can suppress with a few words. Now, the trend in yields is pushing the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. Additionally, the Bank of Japan's attitude has begun to turn hawkish, and the market has already priced in that “Japan will enter an interest rate hike cycle.” $BTC $ETH $SOL

From the current market perspective, the bears are exhausting, and the bulls are gathering strength. Bitcoin has repeatedly been pulled back by long lower shadows near 91800, indicating that there is solid buying support at this price level. Ethereum also has support around 3150, with the lows continuously rising, and the trend is biased towards a volatile upward movement.

$BTC can attempt to go long near 91800, targeting 93500, with a stop loss set below 91400;
$ETH can go long near 3150, targeting 3250, with a stop loss set below 3090.

Overall thinking: focus on low-level layouts, do not chase highs, and follow the trend.

Personal advice, for reference only.

12.4 Evening Silk Road Thinking Update

Today, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have given a short-term rebound as expected. The long position strategy mentioned this morning has already generated over a thousand points of profit. Friends who have positions, remember to take profits if needed, as the market has been very volatile these past few days, and greed can easily return profits back.

The market is now entering a consolidation phase. The MACD golden cross continues to expand, and the EMA moving averages are trending upwards, indicating that there is still room for short-term upward movement. But don’t forget, there is also selling pressure accumulating above, and a surge followed by a pullback is basically the norm; once the pullback is complete, it presents another opportunity to go long.

Make sure to maintain good defense; recently, the market cannot bear without stop losses.

$BTC It is recommended to consider going long when returning to the 92000-92500 range, targeting 93500-94000.

$ETH It is recommended to consider going long when returning to the 3100-3150 range, targeting 3230-3500.

The rhythm remains “rebound relay, bulls dominate, buy on pullbacks.”

In the early session, it surged to 93900 in one go, and when it couldn't go higher, it was slammed down. The market was stagnant for a while, and this kind of trend actually indicates: there are people running at the top, but the trend hasn't deteriorated; it's just digesting the chips.

The U.S. stock market experienced extreme fluctuations, waking up all the emotions. I also told my brothers: a pullback is an opportunity, not a panic point. Now the big coin is stable above 93000, and there may not be many short-term big moves, but the rhythm remains oscillating upward.

The 4-hour structure is very clear: consecutive bullish candles, moving along the upper track, and the Bollinger Bands continue to open - a typical strong bullish trend. No resistance means there is space above.

The operational logic in one sentence: a drop is to give you a chance to get on board, not to scare you away.

$BTC : around 92600 for buying, target at 94500, 95000, and if strong, 96000 is not difficult.
$ETH : buy at 3050, and just take a glance at 3220—3300 to understand.

This wave of pullback continues to align with the buy strategy, 94000 has also arrived as expected

In the past few days, BTC has increased from 84,000 to 93,000, a rise of 11%, and the sentiment has clearly improved. My habit with such a sudden surge in volume is to first analyze the structure, then assess participation.

Over the past few years, I have been well educated by the market that this type of rebound is not important; what matters is who is taking the position.

A true trend reversal is never driven by the shouts of retail investors, but rather by the migration of funds.

This time, I focused on three signals.

First: Continuous net outflow from exchanges

In the past 4 days, BTC has experienced continuous net outflow from major exchanges, which represents two things:
1. Short-term selling pressure has decreased
2. Someone has withdrawn their coins and is not in a hurry to sell

Among all on-chain data, this is what I value the most.
Because no matter how sentiment changes or how the K-line moves, funds do not lie.

Currently, the flow appears to be healthy.

Second: Whale accumulation direction is consistent

Several large addresses I have been monitoring have taken very consistent actions in recent days:
Continuously accumulating, with a ratio of about +2%.

Whales do not become impulsive because of a single large bullish candle;
their rhythm is often:
"Determine that the large fund range is reasonable → Gradually accumulate → Use sentiment to amplify the market."

This accumulation rhythm is very similar to the prelude of the reversal at the end of 2022.

This indicates that at least this round of increase is not driven by retail excitement.

Panic index: Approaching critical point

The index has remained in the range of 28-29 over the past few days, without breaking down or showing a clear rebound.
This indicates that the selling sentiment has almost been digested.

However, be aware that I will not rely solely on this single indicator for judgment, as sentiment is always lagging.
If panic persists for another 1-2 days, it is highly likely that the emotional bottom will be basically confirmed. $BTC $ETH $SOL

12.3 The afternoon thought continues here.
The current four-hour structure is still a standard bullish market, with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands moving upwards, and both the upper and lower bands expanding, indicating that the trend is still extending upwards. Recently, the K-line has been consistently bullish, with larger bodies, and pullbacks have all stopped above the middle band, showing insufficient strength and time, which has not formed an effective reversal. Therefore, overall, it still leans towards a continuation of the bullish trend within a strong oscillation.

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are both in the same structure and direction. Ethereum has good follow-through and has not shown any independent weakness signals. Therefore, the short-term strategy remains focused on taking advantage of pullbacks rather than chasing highs. It is better to enter during a low-volume pullback, as the success rate will be higher.

For BTC, considering going long around the 92500-92000 range, with an expected target looking towards around 94000-94500. Note a key point: if it breaks below 92000 and cannot quickly recover, then this round's rhythm may weaken, so it’s best to exit in a timely manner rather than forcefully resist.

For ETH, the same logic applies for going long on pullbacks; consider buying in the 3030-3000 range. In the short term, aim for 3100 first, then 3200, and if strong, there’s a chance to touch around 3400.

Overall, the trend is still intact, and the bullish sentiment has not deteriorated, so the strategic tone remains "a pullback is an opportunity, exit when breaking key levels." The above are personal views for reference only, everything is subject to actual market conditions.

Gold's overall structure today is still trending upwards with fluctuations; the pace is neither urgent nor anxious, but the bulls are steadily pushing upwards. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the BOLL middle track continues to move upward, with the lower track support around 4135, which has not been truly broken; horizontal support is in the range of 4165 to 4155, indicating that short-term pullbacks still present opportunities.

On the daily chart, the stochastic indicator is dulling, and the MACD is also in a dull state. The price has not yet completely stabilized above the BOLL, but this does not affect the overall upward oscillation trend. The major axis is at 4095, which has a large amplitude, but as long as it does not break below this area, the bulls still hold the advantage in the larger direction.

In summary, today the main strategy is still to follow the trend. Focus on three support zones: 4135, 4165 to 4155, and 4200 to 4190. Buy on pullbacks around these levels, maintaining a bullish outlook, with the strategy unchanged.

This is only a personal opinion and for reference only; the market carries risks, and operations require caution.

Recently, many people have asked me:
"In China, does buying and selling virtual assets between individuals count as illegal?"

In fact, many people think too extreme about this issue.

First, let's state the conclusion—regulatory authorities do not recognize it as currency, but that does not mean it is classified as illegal goods.
The document from 2013 has made it very clear: it does not possess legal tender status, but belongs to "virtual goods."
In other words, it has property attributes; you can hold it, and it can become the subject of civil disputes.

The real risk is not "whether you bought it," but rather how you buy it and how you sell it.

Small-scale exchanges between individuals, to put it bluntly, are a form of high-risk civil activity, not protected by financial regulations. However, as long as you do not cross the lines of fraud, money laundering, or illegal operations, simply having digital currency or exchanging it will not automatically lead to criminal charges.

However—cases of missteps in recent years have also told us:
Once your actions are labeled with "operation, organization, and public openness," the nature changes completely.

The risk gradient is very clear:

Team-based, studio-based—highest risk
OTC merchants—naturally high risk
Public platforms attracting people for business—gray area
KOLs with referral and commission—also walking the tightrope

And what is truly "relatively safe" is the kind of small-scale P2P activities that are not external, not for companies, and not operational.

So don't simplify the question to "can I buy it." What you should think about is—what position are you in from the regulatory perspective? Is your behavior considered "business"?

The currency itself is not the problem; your role and manner of behavior determine your risk.

Understanding this, you won't miss opportunities due to ignorant fear, nor will you step on the red line due to blind confidence. $BTC $ETH $SOL

The midline of this wave of Ether was also arranged three days ago. In fact, according to the original idea, it was prepared to see if the market could pull to a higher position for replenishing positions. As a result, this morning a waterfall came down, and they directly reduced positions to stabilize profits and continued to look down at $BTC $ETH $SOL .

The core reason for this morning's drop was actually pointed out by me three days ago, and I also took a small position to grasp the long-term space for shorting:

Expectations of interest rate hikes in Japan and the exit from quantitative easing have increased, triggering a global capital return, forcing arbitrage positions to close, and the cryptocurrency market is facing a chain reaction of plummeting.

The specific mechanism is very simple:

The market is worried about Japan raising interest rates → The yen strengthens
A large number of arbitrage positions borrowing yen to buy risk assets (Carry Trade) start to close
U.S. stock futures initially plunge
Cryptocurrencies, as the highest risk assets, have their declines magnified

"Once expectations for yen interest rate hikes come, global arbitrage positions are trampled, and cryptocurrencies are hit first."$BTC $ETH $SOL