静静看趋势

2025.12.9早10:39BTC/ETH今日走势分析
昨晚BTC击中89700后喊破喉咙让你出手撸多，听话的都撸到了，不听话的都只能干瞪眼了，凌晨最高反弹91338走出1660+空间，足够800/1500止盈，昨晚已经说了可以不挂止损，但是必须挂止盈，比如90500挂40%，90800-91200分别挂40%！此刻这不就都分批止盈剩底仓了，保本损一设置就0风险博弈了！
BTC
支撑87250/82845
压力96422/102400
关键点位88035/92228目前的走势有点爆发的前奏，给你走出弱不拉几的走势，让你感觉涨不动了，甚至还要屡次给你深蹲诱空你，起码今明两天我依然保持乐观态势，具体美联储利率决议落地会不会更改预测那得等落地后看走势再说；以目前的走势来说不破位的情况下迟早再摸96422和102400！
ETH
支撑2941/2749
压力3400/3592
3170已经多次测试，3000以下会不会在次测试静静等待即可，在次测试就又是上车机会；
操作上：暴涨暴跌不正是你喜欢的行情吗？没有波动没有赚钱效应，有了波动你还是不赚钱，这就不是行情的问题了，不赚钱的根本原因是自己操作问题；
仓位大小取决于自己能承受多少，取决于亏损后你还有多少资金以及多少机会，这一点很多人经常搞混淆，今天深蹲继续找机会出手多，不回踩的时刻保持点耐心！

For 10 years, I've been saying that housing prices are too high, and then real estate prices dropped, but no one bought...

For 2 years, I've been saying that BTC is too expensive, and then BTC also dropped in price, yet still no one bought...

It is clear that buying behavior is based on optimistic expectations, rather than simply the price being high or low.

A classic meme faces a dilemma on sol: the funding attention on sol switches too quickly, with new hot topics emerging every day. The classic meme community lacks the necessary development period, making it difficult to achieve long-term balance in price consensus and cultural consensus.

BTC Market Analysis:

The Bitcoin price is starting to consolidate at a relatively high level, digesting the emotions brought by this wave of increase. The overall parallel channel is still effective, and the upper edge has not been touched. If it starts to decline from here, pay attention to the central line around 90500!

The overall rhythm is still in a rebound phase, and no reversal has occurred. The rebound has formed a parallel channel, so for now, just focus on the reactions at the upper and lower edges of the channel! This is not a trending phase; it is recommended to operate primarily based on segments and not to get too carried away!

Recently, the topic of interest rate hikes in Japan has become the biggest variable affecting the financial markets after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is not just a domestic issue; it is a 'pricing anchor' concerning global capital costs. If the Federal Reserve controls the faucet's switch, then the Bank of Japan controls the water temperature. The sharp drop last August was a 'shock therapy,' and the current hawkish signals are akin to 'boiling a frog in warm water.' Although there won't be an instantaneous crash, it will continuously siphon off speculative liquidity from the market.

The price of U has dropped, the sky has fallen, and I have all the U prepared for buying at the bottom. I guess one reason is that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in December, and the other reason is that the University of Tokyo continues to crack down on virtual currencies, especially targeting money laundering and illegal currency exchange involving stablecoins, leading many people to sell their U, hahahaha, damn it.

In some places, virtual currencies are recognized because they are free and democratic, and the people have the right to choose, while in other places, some officials see the common people as fish and meat, and the national treasury as private property, squandering without restraint. We have internal pests.

FARTCOIN
After a good increase, FARTCOIN went fully direct last time!

Now at the current price, I've entered a small position to go long again, with a stop loss at 0.35 and the target remains what was previously mentioned, 0.48-0.5!

After breaking through the trendline channel and pulling back twice, this time it shouldn't be a scam, right?

Recently, the FIR ecological project has seen a significant increase in trading activity on the Alpha platform. This project combines AI with the music industry, and ecological construction continues to advance, with multiple collaborative singles performing outstandingly in the market. Among them, Kay Tse's new work "Cheng Guang Zhu Meng" has accumulated over 100 million plays on Tencent Music platform, ranking high on the charts and continuously contributing stable copyright revenue.
Latest updates show that the project team has released a development plan, expecting that by 2026, annual revenue based on music copyrights is likely to exceed $30 million. At the end of December this year, they plan to launch the "Copyright Pledge Pool" feature, at which time users participating in FIR liquidity provision (FIR-LP) can receive 50% of the pool's profit share (distributed in USDT).
Currently, the overall market value of FIR is approximately $6 million, still in the early stages of development. With business progress and market attention driving each other, combined with the current increase in trading volume and expectations for subsequent mechanism implementation, its valuation has certain growth potential. Investors should pay attention to its future developments based on their own judgment, be aware of market volatility risks, and make decisions cautiously.

This market is not pricing facts, but pricing fantasies

The market is ultimately driven by confidence and emotions:

Recently, I don't know if everyone has seen this truth:
The crypto market has never been priced based on fundamentals, nor based on data; fundamentals and data are merely the results of narrative changes, while emotions and confidence are the main drivers!

Because the market is fundamentally not rational and linear, after the significant drop on 1011, the lack of liquidity in the market is just a surface issue, but the real problem is that confidence has been shaken; after the collapse of confidence, even good news will be seen as bad news, and a slight rise will be seen as an opportunity to sell; however, if confidence returns, every bullish candle might be interpreted as a new cycle.

So when you see the market rising, there are good news everywhere, but when it's falling, there is bad news everywhere!

If you don't believe it, search today; everyone will see quite a lot of good news today.

So do you think the market is pricing facts? Wrong! In fact, the market has always been pricing fantasies: most of the time, what can be different in the market mainly depends on the inner thoughts of market participants;

Prices are merely the average of everyone's fantasies: in a market driven by emotions, the value of all information depends on what the market currently wants to believe.

So, family, what do you believe in now?

Is this wave a rebound from a scam or a reversal after the washout is complete?

Come on, vote: let's see if we can avoid the emotional extremes of most people!

Currently, the fluctuations of Bitcoin are almost highly synchronized with the Japanese yen. Why is that? Let’s talk about the arbitrage logic behind it. Simply put, in the past, the interest rates of the yen were extremely low (the cost of borrowing was almost zero), and many big players borrowed a large amount of yen, then exchanged these yen for US dollars to invest in high-risk, high-return assets like $BTC. This is called yen arbitrage trading. Now, the Bank of Japan is going to raise interest rates, and the cost of borrowing yen has increased. The big players must quickly close their positions (sell $BTC to exchange for US dollars, then convert back to yen to repay their debts).
Therefore, once the yen strengthens (arbitrage liquidation leads to increased buying of yen), $BTC will face selling pressure. Naturally, the price movement of $BTC is synchronized with the yen.

Thus, Bitcoin has completely integrated into the global macro liquidity cycle! It is no longer an isolated market but rather a barometer for the massive movement of global funds. The biggest risk now is the concentrated liquidation of yen arbitrage trades. This amount of capital is enormous, and once there is a large-scale withdrawal from the $BTC market, we will face continuous downward pressure.

A friend has been stuck with a long position in SOL for a while, and the forced liquidation is around 112. Around 2 AM yesterday, SOL was still near 137 and I suggested to open a short hedge, but he didn't. Today it suddenly dropped to 125, and if it breaks 120, it could easily accelerate down to around 114 and 104. It's hard to avoid a forced liquidation below 100.

Constantly adding to a long position that is stuck is a very dangerous behavior. After adding, you need to reduce your position in the rebound range of 137-144. Just adding without reducing leads to heavier positions, and if the position blows up, the losses will be greater. Especially since the forced liquidation of SOL long positions is between 110-100, all within this month's correction range, the position is very risky. This time the rebound didn't even touch 150; the next phase of volatility will be in the range of 144-100. One could say 150 has already become the ceiling. First, save your life; don't take chances. Japan hasn't raised interest rates yet, and if they do this month, 100 in January will be hard to maintain.

Putting the traditional web2 company valuation system onto real crypto projects is simply tying one's own hands and feet.

If someone talks about valuation in terms of how much a chain is currently making, what the PE is... and so on, I will immediately shut up and walk away, because there is no point in arguing.

Making a fortune = Basic skills of technical analysis + The market must have rules

If you want to make a fortune, part of it comes from the basic skills of technical analysis, and the other part comes from whether the market itself has rules.

The so-called rules mean that there is large capital participation, it will respect support and resistance, and it will react to key signals.

Taking FART as an example, from the 23rd to today, the price has responded clearly to oversold, overbought, volatility warnings, and key EMA moving averages. This indicates that the structure of this market period is stable, and there is coherence between signals and prices.

Do not interpret the market with subjective emotions and a victim's perspective, and do not treat the rules of movement as "trapping yourself" (the only opponent of the retail investor is themselves).

Keep your stop loss in check, execute trades according to the system, and a regularly trending asset will eventually bring profits.