先生Crypto

12.09 Market Dynamics

1. BTC continues to fluctuate with a significant amplitude, between 89000-92000, and a small-level trend reversal is expected within this week;

2. ETH keeps receiving positive news, whether from DAT company continuing to buy or ETF applications, showing a stronger performance than before;

3. Strategy's CEO Phong Le stated that the company will continue to hold Bitcoin until at least 2065, adhering to its long-term accumulation strategy;

4. BlackRock transferred $78.3 million in Ethereum to Coinbase;

5. Gold reached a historic high, breaking $2800 per ounce;

6. Deutsche Bank predicts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points and signal a pause;

7. Bitcoin ETF attracted $352 million, XRP fund remains popular, and a Pakistani minister suggested including Bitcoin in the national reserves;

8. BlackRock submitted a prospectus for a staking Ethereum trust ETF, expanding its crypto products;

12.08 Market Dynamics

1. BTC started to rebound after breaking below 88000 in the evening, reaching nearly 92000 at night and currently oscillating around 90000;

2. A lot of big players are opening positions in ETH, and it's uncertain what positive news this week will bring. All I can say is that ETH is performing quite strongly, and there are indeed many big players willing to open positions;

3. The long positions of the 'whales' who opened short positions after the flash crash on 1011 have increased to 14,277 ETH, worth over 42.95 million dollars; I can see that many 'whales' have been liquidated;

4. Michael Saylor has once again released Bitcoin Tracker information, which may disclose accumulation data; Strategy has joined the Open Semantic Interchange standard OSI;

5. SEC head: the entire U.S. financial market may migrate on-chain within two years;

6. According to Cryptoslate, the SEC will hold a roundtable on cryptocurrency, financial regulation, and privacy on December 15;

7. If Bitcoin reaches $100,000, it will liquidate 9.1 billion in shorts;

8. Gold may welcome a historic year, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates;

#加密市场观察

12.06 The medium-term view on BTC remains unchanged: waiting for this descending flag pattern to complete before starting to position for a medium-term short; currently in the second segment of the zigzag structure;
The small cycle is in the second segment of the zigzag structure, in the 2nd wave; in a state about to complete;
Ideally, wait for a pullback above 92,000 to consider a position; if no opportunity is given, then wait for the right timing; #加密市场观察

12.06 Market Dynamics

1. BTC's small structure 📉 is said to have directly crashed the market price, and the news is hard to understand; let's wait for opportunities over the weekend with lower volume;

2. ETH's overall cycle is still quite strong, now still above 3000, let's see, after all, many people are saying that BE trends are different;

3. U.S. September core PCE fell short of expectations, giving the Federal Reserve a green light for further rate cuts;
U.S. Bank: The market may quickly digest expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut in January;

4. CoinShares: The DAT bubble has basically burst, which may support the market if the macro environment improves;

5. ETH's recent pullback has caused significant profit-taking, increasing liquidation risks;

6. Strategy transfers 6536 BTC to Fidelity, with 28% of holdings already custodied by Fidelity

#美联储重启降息步伐

This backhand hole is still quite flexible#ETH走势分析

12.05 Market Dynamics

1. BTC has been fluctuating, touching 94,000 and then starting to pull back. After dipping to around 90,800 in the early morning, it has now returned to 92,000. It's Friday, so let's see if there will be a small structural change;

2. ET seems to be stronger than Bitcoin, as Bitcoin started to pull back first while Ethereum maintained a high position for a while before it couldn't hold on and followed suit. Keep a close watch on this;

3. Sui: The first 2x leveraged SUI ETF has been approved by the U.S. SEC and is listed on NASDAQ;

4. JPMorgan: The decline in Bitcoin prices, combined with high electricity prices, has led to selling pressure from high-cost miners in the market;

5. BlackRock CEO calls BTC a "fear asset," holding 780,000 BTC;

6. The market expects a 94% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December;

7. Schwab and Citibank will offer BTC mortgages in early 2026;

8. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 29 dropped to 191,000;#美SEC推动加密创新监管

12.04 Market Dynamics:

Once again, we must rely on the U.S. stock market and narratives created by Trump to survive. Yesterday, we called in robotic relay AI to see if it can work.

1. BTC is fluctuating; last night it suddenly dropped from 9.3 to around 9.16, then slowly climbed back up. It is currently fluctuating around 93500. There is a stagnation performance appearing in the 1-hour chart; if you watched last night's video and opened a long position this morning, it's up to you to decide on the pattern;

2. ETH is performing strongly, rising steadily, and is close to surpassing 3200, basically recovering last week's losses;

3. The Federal Reserve's three-year loss period has come to an end, and it is now back to profitability;

4. BlackRock predicts that the surge in U.S. Treasury bonds will drive institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies;

5. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 89%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 11%;

6. Bank of America predicts that the strong upward trend of the S&P 500 index will fade by 2026;

7. SEC: The Bitcoin Market Structure Bill is about to pass; tokenization needs to continue advancing; #ETH巨鲸增持

12.03 Market Dynamics; (Video to be updated later)

1. BTC surged with a flood of positive news, it's just a matter of whether this will be a V-shaped reversal or a rebound; a long-awaited increase of $8000; fortunately, I was clever enough to withdraw my limit orders;

2. ETH followed the surge of Bitcoin, and the companies in DAT have recently seen their investments increase again, with enough arguments to persuade shareholders to continue buying;

3. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is 89.2%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 10.8%;

4. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: The U.S. will achieve low inflation growth, and inflation will continue next year;

5. Trump: Will announce the new head of the Federal Reserve early next year, Yellen does not want the job;

6. Musk warns that the U.S. debt crisis could trigger severe fluctuations in BTC;

7. BlackRock CEO: The current state of Bitcoin is similar to the internet in 1996; $BTC

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Citing the analysis of the artist, it seems that my judgment on this small structure consolidation starting from 80,000 is basically consistent. Unfortunately, I was too busy during the day to record a video;
The lower edge of the 4-hour level oscillation channel received support, followed by a rebound with increasing volume but gradually decreasing. It looks like the judgment is correct, and the market has officially entered a range oscillation!

In the short term, there seems to be hope for an ascending wedge to test the midline of the 4-hour channel, followed by a structural pullback, and then testing the upper range.
Forming a double sawtooth structure;

Doing this type of structure usually involves participating in small levels within the range.

12.01 Market Dynamics：

1. BTC has been volatile for three days, and on Monday it opened without hesitation, directly breaking 8.7. If you ask me why, I can only say that those buy orders over the weekend were lured;

2. ETH has risen a lot, and similarly has fallen a lot; following the sentiment;

3. Spot silver has broken through 57 dollars/ounce, reaching a historical high; did those who sprinted for silver futures last Friday make a lot of money?

4. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in December on Polymarket has risen to 88%;
Goldman Sachs: A rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the upcoming December meeting has basically become a settled matter;

5. Michael Saylor has once again released Bitcoin Tracker information, possibly indicating a further increase in BTC holdings;

6. The Swiss National Bank holds over 750,000 shares of MicroStrategy stock;

7. Yearn yETH was attacked, with 3 million dollars worth of ETH stolen and transferred;

8. The pullback in gold prices has ended, and it may rise to 4,700 dollars/ounce;
#加密市场反弹

According to the volume indicator, the bearish energy has continued to weaken; the probability of the head extending to 97,000 has increased;
In simple terms, the fluctuation and rebound consolidation starting from 80,000, approaching 91,000, represents potential resistance;
The probability of this three-wave style rebound making another move before the weekend was 90%, but now it is only 60%;
The probability of directly extending the head has increased to 40%;
Let's see how Monday's daytime market performs; ​​​#加密市场反弹

This Week's Macroeconomic Outlook: A Week of Fed Guidance and a Flood of Data

Next week, the Federal Reserve will enter its customary "quiet period" before the December meeting, and a number of economic data points are set to be released. Additionally, with many large traders returning from vacation, the market may experience significant volatility. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the coming week:

Monday 22:45, US November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final;

Tuesday 09:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at a commemorative event;

Tuesday 23:00, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman testifies before a House committee;

Wednesday 21:15, US November ADP Employment Change;

Wednesday 22:45, US November S&P Global Services PMI Final;

Thursday 20:30, US November Challenger Job Cuts;

Thursday 21:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29;

Friday 23:00, US December 1-Year Inflation Expectations Preliminary, December Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary, September Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year, September Personal Spending Month-over-Month, September Core PCE Price Index Month-over-Month.

After several Federal Reserve speakers made a series of hawkish remarks, doves have made a comeback over the past 10 days, bringing the prospect of a rate cut back to the negotiating table for the December meeting. This has caused the probability of a 25 basis point cut on December 10 to soar from about 25% to nearly 80%, a dramatic reversal that has resonated throughout the financial markets. Federal Reserve officials typically guide Wall Street towards their final decision before meetings to avoid surprises. Over the past two years (covering a total of 20 Federal Reserve meetings), traders have only failed to fully digest the results three times close to policy decisions. #加密市场反弹

11.29 Market Dynamics

1. BTC has been fluctuating continuously after breaking through 93000, potentially facing resistance; it has started to pull back and is currently fluctuating around 91000;

2. ETH almost broke through 3100 and has started to pull back following BTC, currently fluctuating around 3020;

3. BitMine increased its holdings by 20,532 ETH, worth approximately 63.32 million USD;

4. Binance's spot testnet will be updated on December 1st, with parameters supporting UTF-8 encoding; as a result, the Chinese market collectively surged;

5. The market on Polymarket has bet on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with the probability rising to 87%;

6. BlackRock received 78.15 million USD in BTC and ETH in 10 minutes;

7. CME data center failure caused a suspension of futures trading, with severe impact; #加密市场反弹

11.28 Market Dynamics

1. BTC has been fluctuating, after a rise close to breaking 92000 yesterday morning, it started to pull back. Currently, it is making another push towards 92000, especially since U.S. stocks are not trading and ETFs cannot come in, let's see how it goes;

2. ETH is following Bitcoin, fluctuating around 3000, let's see if there is a good performance today;

3. The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 85.1%;

4. Gold prices have broken through 2800 USD/ounce, creating a new historical high, with safe-haven sentiment rising;

5. VanEck has added 12,600 ETH in staking, with a total value of about 37.9 million USD;

6. BlackRock holds 2.397 million shares of Bitcoin ETF, valued at 155.8 million USD;

#加密市场反弹

11.27 Market Dynamics

1. BTC broke 90k, currently it has recovered all the losses from last Friday. The US stock market is still strong, and the current expectation of interest rate cuts has been priced in earlier; let's see how this rebound is digested; there will be another low point in the future;

2. ETH is following Bitcoin's surge, currently standing around 3050;

3. JPMorgan economists changed their forecast, believing that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in December, reversing the bank's judgment from a week ago that policymakers would delay cuts until January;
(Institutions may not necessarily adhere to one viewpoint)

4. SEC's new guidelines may accelerate the approval process for cryptocurrency ETFs;

5. Bloomberg analysts: Nasdaq ISE proposed raising the IBIT options position limit to 1 million contracts;

6. BlackRock withdrew 953 BTC and 15,722 ETH, monitoring shows significant capital flow;

7. S&P Global downgraded USDT's ability to maintain its peg to the dollar to the lowest, warning of collateral shortfall risks;

8. Grayscale submitted an application to the SEC to establish a Zcash ETF, betting on the growth of privacy coin demand;

9. Ethereum saw a new inflow of stablecoins of $966 million in 24 hours, setting a record for the same period;

#加密市场反弹

11.26 Market Dynamics

1. BTC has been fluctuating and adjusting. After a little shake from MSTR's opening tonight, it has come back up. This week, the U.S. stock market is only open for three days, so today is essentially Friday;

2. ETH follows suit and is about to challenge the 3000 mark again;

3. Powell may consider interest rate cuts in December. The Federal Reserve's policy remains strict, and analysts suggest there may be an excess cut of 150 basis points next year;

4. BlackRock has deposited 4,471 BTC into Coinbase Prime, worth $390.8 million;

5. Gold prices are rising, the dollar index is approaching the 100 mark, and market volatility is increasing;#加密市场反弹

The number of buy orders on the Bitcoin order book continues to decrease +8.0-8.8, this rebound sees a market outflow of 160 million dollars;

Confused, is the ETF selling while retail investors are bottom fishing?

Bullish momentum is weakening because the market expectations for the next few days do not have overly positive news, so if any good news is given, we must be on guard against a dead cat bounce;

The market is likely to shift to a wide and disorderly fluctuation; as stated in the video, the structure will be very complex; #加密市场反弹

11.25 Market Dynamics

1. BTC has been fluctuating upwards, and after the US stock market opened, it filled a CME gap downwards. It rebounded along with MSTR, reaching close to 89500, and is currently adjusting around 88000;

2. ETH's rebound exceeded that of BTC, with a lot of hype as major whales opened large long positions, just a stone's throw away from 3000;

3. CME 'Federal Reserve Watch': The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 81%;

4. Grayscale has launched its first XRP spot ETF, GXRP, which started trading on NYSE Arca last night;

5. BlackRock transferred 2,822 BTC and 36,283 ETH to Coinbase;

6. VanEck submitted an update for the BNB spot ETF S-1 filing, with the code VBNB;
#加密市场回调

The mid-term structure of 11.25 Bitcoin will undergo a consolidation rebound structure lasting about 40 days under the condition of not breaking 80,000. The ideal position of 9.1 is a critical point; 9.7 is the most extreme position currently visible. After the consolidation, there is a high probability of a second test of the low point; it could be slightly lower or below the previous critical point of 80,000!

In the short cycle, this consolidation structure will be relatively complex, possibly involving a complicated double sawtooth structure to maintain consolidation by exchanging time for space; #加密市场回调

11.24 Market Dynamics

1. BTC approaches the expected rebound target of 91,000, theoretically stabilizing at 85,000, basically completing the stop 📉; retaining expectations for a second test;

2. ETH follows overall;

3. The number of addresses holding at least 10,000 BTC has increased to 90, reaching a 5-month high;

4. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 69.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut at 22.3%;

5. Linea mainnet bridge connects over 1.22 million ETH, with 420,000 interaction addresses;

6. Michael Saylor stated in a post that he will not yield, possibly hinting at increasing BTC holdings;

7. The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the government shutdown could result in a GDP loss of $11 billion;

8. BlackRock's BTC ETF achieved a daily trading volume of $8 billion, setting a new record; #美国非农数据超预期