老k
116 Posts
老k
生命的厚重总是要时间去感受，所以还是活得长点会更好。
51 Following
119 Followers
64 Liked
Posts
All
Quotes
Companies in the glass substrate category may have a good premium space.
The global glass substrate market is expected to reach USD 18.6 billion in 2026. From 2026 to 2030, the CAGR is estimated to be about 14.5%, far higher than the 6% for organic substrates. In the long run, from 2028 to 2040, the CAGR could be as high as 67.2%.
II. Investment opportunities in the industrial chain
1. Upstream materials: glass wafers
Specialty glass wafers are the core foundational materials in the industrial chain. The high-end market is dominated by overseas manufacturers such as Corning and Schott, making the room for domestic substitution especially clear.
· AVIC/China National Building Materials (CSG): progressing with process validation for an 8-inch TGV pilot line
· Qibin Group: research and development is moving relatively quickly, but the company has clearly stated that it has not yet invested in a mass-production line
· Linuo Pharmaceutical Packaging, Gobioca: accelerating to catch up
It is worth noting that semiconductor glass substrates and pharmaceutical neutral borosilicate glass share the same core materials system, giving domestic pharmaceutical glass companies an entry advantage.
2. Midstream manufacturing: substrate processing
BOE A is a domestic leader in terms of progress. In the first half of 2026, its trial line for glass-based encapsulation panel/board substrates achieved end-to-end automation, with fully automatic equipment passing through the line and being submitted for customer certification. Vowgen Optoelectronics is one of the few companies worldwide that has mastered the full TGV process and achieved mass production. However, the company indicates that the related business is still in an early stage and has not yet formed scaled mass-production revenue.
The global glass substrate market is expected to reach USD 18.6 billion in 2026. From 2026 to 2030, the CAGR is estimated to be about 14.5%, far higher than the 6% for organic substrates. In the long run, from 2028 to 2040, the CAGR could be as high as 67.2%.
II. Investment opportunities in the industrial chain
1. Upstream materials: glass wafers
Specialty glass wafers are the core foundational materials in the industrial chain. The high-end market is dominated by overseas manufacturers such as Corning and Schott, making the room for domestic substitution especially clear.
· AVIC/China National Building Materials (CSG): progressing with process validation for an 8-inch TGV pilot line
· Qibin Group: research and development is moving relatively quickly, but the company has clearly stated that it has not yet invested in a mass-production line
· Linuo Pharmaceutical Packaging, Gobioca: accelerating to catch up
It is worth noting that semiconductor glass substrates and pharmaceutical neutral borosilicate glass share the same core materials system, giving domestic pharmaceutical glass companies an entry advantage.
2. Midstream manufacturing: substrate processing
BOE A is a domestic leader in terms of progress. In the first half of 2026, its trial line for glass-based encapsulation panel/board substrates achieved end-to-end automation, with fully automatic equipment passing through the line and being submitted for customer certification. Vowgen Optoelectronics is one of the few companies worldwide that has mastered the full TGV process and achieved mass production. However, the company indicates that the related business is still in an early stage and has not yet formed scaled mass-production revenue.
Gold can be added to further
The AI risk premium has passed its peak. AI is starting to concentrate toward leading companies, but debt has not decreased at all—it continues to accumulate. In addition, the external pressures brought by the mid-gap period of industrial transfer, as well as the continued elimination of other industries, will further squeeze debt pressure.
Debt continues to accumulate: global government, corporate, and household debt remains high. In the end, it often requires low real interest rates, currency depreciation, or debt restructuring to digest it. Gold does not generate cash flow, but when real interest rates are suppressed and fiat-currency credit is questioned, its relative value tends to rise.
· AI risk premium fades, concentration increases: If AI shifts from “broad-based gains” to “monopolistic profits among a handful of leading companies,” market breadth will deteriorate and the fragility of U.S. equities will increase. Once volatility in risk assets rises, the value of gold as a safe-haven allocation will improve.
· The mid-gap period during industrial transfer + elimination of other industries: This implies growth momentum will lag and falter, and unemployment and credit risks may be released locally, increasing the risk of debt defaults. This environment typically benefits gold while hurting pro-cyclical assets.
· Central bank gold buying trend: In recent years, global central banks have continued to increase their gold holdings. At its core, this is a hedge against the U.S. dollar credit system. This trend is unlikely to reverse in the short term.
So, looking at the bigger picture, the long-term bull logic for gold has not been broken.
2. But in the short term, adding to positions “to continue going long” must be done cautiously.
Gold is not priced only by the debt cycle. In the short term, it is also affected by three factors:
· Real interest rates: The cost of holding gold. If U.S. inflation remains “sticky” beyond expectations and the Fed delays rate cuts, real interest rates will stay elevated, putting pressure on gold.
· Strength of the U.S. dollar: Gold is priced in U.S. dollars. If the dollar strengthens due to safe-haven demand or interest-rate spread advantages, gold may pull back in the short term.
· Trade crowding: Gold has already risen significantly in the prior period, and bullish sentiment is relatively strong. If there is a liquidity shock or a reversal in expectations, the pullback can happen quickly.
There is also a key risk: if “the disaster movie” really begins, gold may not rise immediately.
Reference: March 2020. At the start of the pandemic shock, the market panicked and liquidity dried up. Gold was also sold off to cover margin calls—first it fell sharply, then it surged significantly afterward. If you were fully invested at high levels and using leverage, you might have fallen before dawn.
Gold is a direct long-term investment. For short-term trades, you need to manage the risks yourself.
The AI risk premium has passed its peak. AI is starting to concentrate toward leading companies, but debt has not decreased at all—it continues to accumulate. In addition, the external pressures brought by the mid-gap period of industrial transfer, as well as the continued elimination of other industries, will further squeeze debt pressure.
Debt continues to accumulate: global government, corporate, and household debt remains high. In the end, it often requires low real interest rates, currency depreciation, or debt restructuring to digest it. Gold does not generate cash flow, but when real interest rates are suppressed and fiat-currency credit is questioned, its relative value tends to rise.
· AI risk premium fades, concentration increases: If AI shifts from “broad-based gains” to “monopolistic profits among a handful of leading companies,” market breadth will deteriorate and the fragility of U.S. equities will increase. Once volatility in risk assets rises, the value of gold as a safe-haven allocation will improve.
· The mid-gap period during industrial transfer + elimination of other industries: This implies growth momentum will lag and falter, and unemployment and credit risks may be released locally, increasing the risk of debt defaults. This environment typically benefits gold while hurting pro-cyclical assets.
· Central bank gold buying trend: In recent years, global central banks have continued to increase their gold holdings. At its core, this is a hedge against the U.S. dollar credit system. This trend is unlikely to reverse in the short term.
So, looking at the bigger picture, the long-term bull logic for gold has not been broken.
2. But in the short term, adding to positions “to continue going long” must be done cautiously.
Gold is not priced only by the debt cycle. In the short term, it is also affected by three factors:
· Real interest rates: The cost of holding gold. If U.S. inflation remains “sticky” beyond expectations and the Fed delays rate cuts, real interest rates will stay elevated, putting pressure on gold.
· Strength of the U.S. dollar: Gold is priced in U.S. dollars. If the dollar strengthens due to safe-haven demand or interest-rate spread advantages, gold may pull back in the short term.
· Trade crowding: Gold has already risen significantly in the prior period, and bullish sentiment is relatively strong. If there is a liquidity shock or a reversal in expectations, the pullback can happen quickly.
There is also a key risk: if “the disaster movie” really begins, gold may not rise immediately.
Reference: March 2020. At the start of the pandemic shock, the market panicked and liquidity dried up. Gold was also sold off to cover margin calls—first it fell sharply, then it surged significantly afterward. If you were fully invested at high levels and using leverage, you might have fallen before dawn.
Gold is a direct long-term investment. For short-term trades, you need to manage the risks yourself.
Personally I feel Old Ma is starting to drift; the plates he sets up are too big and it’s easy to cause trouble. A person’s energy is limited. We need to do new energy, build a computing center, build power plants, rocket launches, Starlink communications, robots, and brain-computer interfaces—now we also need to do AI chips. Don’t you need time to take care of your few wives and children?
Each link in the chain burns money; there’s also a trend of developing toward becoming like Jia Boss. The current US doesn’t have the same style as before. I feel he’ll be doomed sooner or later.
Each link in the chain burns money; there’s also a trend of developing toward becoming like Jia Boss. The current US doesn’t have the same style as before. I feel he’ll be doomed sooner or later.
Before SpaceX’s first commercial launch is realized aboard Starship, the company’s quarterly financial reports have been unable to give investors a clear roadmap.
The logic for the company’s future growth is built on two foundations: a steady increase in Starship flight frequency, and the gradual retirement of the operational mainstay rocket, Falcon 9.
What investors should pay the most attention to in this earnings season is management’s latest statements on Starship’s path to commercialization, along with the specific plans for the test schedule—this is the key basis for cutting through current market noise and assessing SpaceX’s long-term value.
For short-term action, whether to proceed cautiously or not mainly hinges on the reference point of an issue price of 135; the downside potential is limited, mainly around the 100 mark.
For the long run, the outlook remains positive above 300, but it requires time to be validated.
The logic for the company’s future growth is built on two foundations: a steady increase in Starship flight frequency, and the gradual retirement of the operational mainstay rocket, Falcon 9.
What investors should pay the most attention to in this earnings season is management’s latest statements on Starship’s path to commercialization, along with the specific plans for the test schedule—this is the key basis for cutting through current market noise and assessing SpaceX’s long-term value.
For short-term action, whether to proceed cautiously or not mainly hinges on the reference point of an issue price of 135; the downside potential is limited, mainly around the 100 mark.
For the long run, the outlook remains positive above 300, but it requires time to be validated.
Old Ma's big rocket and AI still have room for a premium—go get him
Don’t touch the stocks of small countries—repeat it three times in your mind. Especially countries like this, where things like kimchi and flax end up dropping—struggling is useless!!!
Why is that? Because in small countries, the more something is done well, the more dangerous it becomes. A small country isn’t the chess player; it’s the best prey. There are too many hunters in great-power games, and the food isn’t enough to be divided. Great powers can just make up a rule and you’ll end up with rivers of blood. Now international trade isn’t like it used to be, where fairness and justice mattered—only what you can protect is yours. Look at the UN now—does it still have any use? That’s all. It’s all human nature, after all……
Why is that? Because in small countries, the more something is done well, the more dangerous it becomes. A small country isn’t the chess player; it’s the best prey. There are too many hunters in great-power games, and the food isn’t enough to be divided. Great powers can just make up a rule and you’ll end up with rivers of blood. Now international trade isn’t like it used to be, where fairness and justice mattered—only what you can protect is yours. Look at the UN now—does it still have any use? That’s all. It’s all human nature, after all……
Gold can be followed up in the long run. The bubble has already been removed. This hard currency hasn’t gone out of date yet—the bottom has already formed. You can buy slowly at the bottom and then, in the next year or two, you’ll know how important the choices you make now are.
The market has temporarily entered a relatively balanced state, and the range-bound trading is really exhausting. Take your time to enjoy the挂机人生—who knows how long the peaceful period will last.
#BinanceTurns9 9th anniversary, Binance with you
After weathering storms, everything is a smooth path
After weathering storms, everything is a smooth path
#K line master is online—Big Boss knows it, and he's about to start talking big again. Don’t stop—everyone’s meal money depends on you!
Crude oil can’t just sit there—no matter whether it’s the Russia-Ukraine battlefield or the likelihood of escalation in the U.S.-Iran-Israel front. The Russia-Ukraine battlefield has already killed nearly two million people; they’ve basically descended into chaos. One side has to be eliminated—if they drag this out any longer, the people can’t take it anymore. It’s like watching a show through open grating. The negotiations on the U.S.-Iran-Israel front are already dead; trust has collapsed. The only option left is to go for real action on the ground. The negotiators probably already have to lose their hair while fighting— the chance to negotiate while fighting is long gone.
The current plaza is really a chaos of demons and monsters—more exciting than even Douyin.
In the future, still watch less. Remind yourself every day: if you really want to lose less money, watch less.
In the future, still watch less. Remind yourself every day: if you really want to lose less money, watch less.
Buy $1000 worth of Nvidia stock; Binance trading cost is around $1, significantly lower than Tiger and Futu.
On June 1st, news came out indicating that based on publicly disclosed data, assuming Nvidia's stock price is around $216.15, the trading cost for buying $1000 worth of Nvidia stock on Binance is about $1 (0.1% spread); the minimum fees for Tiger Securities and Futu in Hong Kong are both around $2; Interactive Brokers (IBKR) has a fixed fee rate of about $1, with a tiered fee model estimating costs around $0.35. This calculation only considers the buying side trading fees and does not include currency conversion, selling regulatory fees, or financing interest, so actual costs may vary based on trading methods and market conditions.
Today, Binance announced that platform users will be able to trade over 7000 U.S. stocks and ETFs, with an investment threshold of just $5, supporting the purchase of stocks using stablecoins and BNB. The company also announced an upcoming plan allowing customers to convert their held stocks into crypto-like digital assets. This is part of Binance's grand vision to become a 'multi-asset financial super app.'
On June 1st, news came out indicating that based on publicly disclosed data, assuming Nvidia's stock price is around $216.15, the trading cost for buying $1000 worth of Nvidia stock on Binance is about $1 (0.1% spread); the minimum fees for Tiger Securities and Futu in Hong Kong are both around $2; Interactive Brokers (IBKR) has a fixed fee rate of about $1, with a tiered fee model estimating costs around $0.35. This calculation only considers the buying side trading fees and does not include currency conversion, selling regulatory fees, or financing interest, so actual costs may vary based on trading methods and market conditions.
Today, Binance announced that platform users will be able to trade over 7000 U.S. stocks and ETFs, with an investment threshold of just $5, supporting the purchase of stocks using stablecoins and BNB. The company also announced an upcoming plan allowing customers to convert their held stocks into crypto-like digital assets. This is part of Binance's grand vision to become a 'multi-asset financial super app.'
Log in to explore more content