夏木KRIS

Dual Anchor Currency Era: Why Only Gold and Bitcoin Will Survive in the End

I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.

China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.

When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.

The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.

I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.

This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.

$BTC
$PAXG

Oil prices have fallen to around $74, but the matter of the Strait of Hormuz is not truly over yet.

Recently, oil prices have clearly cooled down, with WTI back around $74. One important reason is that there has been progress in the temporary navigation arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman.

But I don’t think it’s too early to say the crisis is over.

What’s being discussed at the moment is temporary routes and navigation arrangements, which doesn’t mean the Strait of Hormuz has fully returned to normal. It also doesn’t mean that the issues between Iran and the United States have been resolved.

That’s why oil is prone to this kind of movement right now: it falls when negotiations make progress, then rises quickly when a new conflict suddenly emerges.

At around $74, oil prices have already priced in many optimistic expectations. Going forward, as long as the agreement doesn’t end up being implemented for a long time, the geopolitical risk premium could return at any time.

$CL $NVDAB $AAPL.US

$SNDK 月13日还有一场大的，财报之后真正的重点来了

Recently, people have been asking me about $SNDK , and I think it’s worth noting that the timeline of August 13.

SanDisk has confirmed that on that day, the 2026 Investor Day will be held, and the CEO, CFO, and other members of management will all be there. The focus will be on the company’s current business situation and the direction it will take going forward.

Why do I think this event is more important than a typical one?
Because the earnings report figures have already been analyzed. What everyone really wants to know now is: how long can the NAND and enterprise storage demand driven by AI last? Can the future profit margins be maintained? And how will the company position itself to capture the upside from the AI data center expansion?

$SNDK has already risen a lot earlier, so the market now wants more than just “strong performance.” It wants to know whether the company can deliver a bigger long-term story.
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How management talks on August 13 will, I believe, directly affect how the market values $SNDK in the next phase.

With two empty hands, you go chasing chickens—
they’ll just run all over.

But if you have a handful of grain in your hands,
the chickens will follow you.

Whatever you do, don’t get carried away.
Because what chickens like has never been you.
It’s the grain in your hands.

If there’s no grain in your hands,
then in the chicken’s eyes, you don’t exist.

If you feed her until she’s full,
she’ll still leave you—secretly laying eggs all over the place behind your back.

So your grain can only be shown to the chickens;
it can’t be eaten by them.
That’s how she’ll be genuinely willing to stick with you.

But if you just keep watching and never feeding,
the chicken will slowly lose patience and turn away.
Knowing when to scatter a little grain is the measure that keeps her for the long run.

Why waste all your effort trying to please a chicken?
Better to focus on saving up more of your own grain.

Don’t expect to keep a chicken with sincerity alone.
For long-lasting attraction, what always matters is that you continue to have grain.$NVDAB $AAPLB $NVDA.US

Musk is going big this time: building his own AI chip plant with $16.8 billion

Tesla and SpaceX have officially announced that they will build a super chip fabrication facility in the U.S. state of Texas called Terafab. In the first phase alone, they are preparing to invest $16.8 billion, with a planned site area of more than 100 million square feet. If all further expansions are completed later, the total project investment could even reach $119 billion.

I think this is worth paying attention to, because what Musk wants to do now is no longer just buying chips. Instead, he plans to integrate logic chips, memory, advanced packaging, and testing entirely in-house. In the future, these chips will directly supply Tesla’s Optimus robots, the Cybercab, and the space-based AI data centers planned by SpaceX.

Musk previously stated very directly that the computing power they will need could exceed 1 TW, and the existing global chip production capacity simply can’t meet demand. So rather than continuing to compete for capacity from TSMC and Samsung, he decided to enter the field and build a factory himself.

If Terafab really comes together according to plan, then Musk’s holdings—Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI—will essentially cover everything from AI models, chips, and robots all the way to space data centers.

$SPCXB $SPCX $SPCX.US

Polymarket, the Prediction Market, Is Reportedly Raising More Funds Again — Valuation Soars to $20 Billion

The prediction market platform Polymarket has reportedly received financing news again.

According to Bloomberg, Polymarket is in talks for a new round of funding, targeting about $1 billion in raised capital. The company’s valuation exceeds $20 billion. Just back in April this year, it completed a funding round then valued at roughly $15 billion. In only a few months, the valuation has surged significantly once more.

Why is the market so optimistic? Because prediction markets are becoming increasingly popular—spanning everything from U.S. elections and the World Cup to Federal Reserve interest rates and cryptocurrency prices. More and more people are starting to back their views with real money. As trading volume continues to grow, Polymarket is gradually becoming one of the most representative platforms in this space.

# $SNDK $SPCX $DOGE

Google AI team reorganization—could the real problem be talent starting to leave?

Google has recently adjusted the architecture of its AI team again, but the market is paying more attention not to the reshuffling of the organization, but to the loss of core talent.

Over the past year, more and more Google AI researchers have been lured away by companies like OpenAI, Meta, and Anthropic with high salaries. Now, AI competition is no longer just about model performance—it’s about talent. Whoever can retain top engineers has the best chance to build the next generation of AI products.

The purpose of this reorganization is also to integrate resources such as Gemini and DeepMind in order to speed up product development and reduce internal redundant investment. However, as competition grows fiercer, adjusting the organization is one thing—whether you can keep the most critical people is what truly determines future competitiveness.

#美股收盘涨跌不一英伟达提振道指 $SNDK $GOOGL $PLTRB

Russia will officially regulate cryptocurrencies in September—what can and can’t be done?

Russia’s new cryptocurrency regulatory law will take effect on September 1.

The biggest change this time is that trading and payments have been completely separated. Going forward, Russian residents can buy and sell cryptocurrencies through compliant platforms; ordinary investors, after passing the test, may purchase up to 300,000 rubles’ worth of major cryptocurrencies per year. Qualified investors have no spending limit.

However, one rule has not changed: cryptocurrencies still cannot be used as a payment tool for goods and services within Russia. In other words, you can buy, sell, and invest, but you can’t use BTC or USDT directly to buy coffee or pay rent. On the other hand, cross-border trade remains open: businesses can use cryptocurrencies for international settlement. This is also an important step toward Russia’s effort to diversify cross-border payments.

$ETH $BTC $SNDK

Has the Strait of Hormuz begun to recover quickly?

Iran and Oman negotiations enter the final stage
The world’s most important energy transport corridor may see new developments.

Iran says that its temporary navigation agreement with Oman for the Strait of Hormuz has entered the final stage. According to the方案 currently being circulated, both sides plan to open a temporary waterway: Iran would handle the inbound shipping routes, while Oman would handle the outbound routes. The goal is to restore partial vessel traffic first, and then continue negotiations on the long-term plan.

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global oil and LNG transportation. As long as navigation gradually resumes, market concerns about crude oil supply will ease—this is also one of the important reasons behind the recent decline in oil prices.

However, the agreement has not been formally signed yet. Whether it can be implemented smoothly afterward still depends on how the negotiations progress among all parties.

$SNDK $XAUT $NVDA.US #伊朗阿曼达成霍尔木兹航线协议

After all these days, gold has finally kicked off. I’ve been waiting a long time for this rally.

Recently, gold has staged a strong rebound. Spot gold once surged from 4032 to around 4253 USD per ounce, jumping about 4.4% in a single day and hitting the highest level in nearly 7 weeks—also the largest single-day gain since February this year.

This upswing is not driven by just one factor. U.S. long-term Treasury yields have pulled back, the dollar has weakened, and the market has started to reprice safe-haven assets again—so capital has clearly flowed back into gold. At the same time, progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations has also led the market to readjust its expectations for inflation and global risk.

I still hold the same view as before: gold’s long-term logic hasn’t changed. Daily rises and falls are normal in the short term, but as soon as the dollar and interest rates start to turn, gold has the potential to keep following its own trend. From what we can see now, this rebound doesn’t look like mere technical correction—it looks more like the start of a new round of rally. $XAU $XAUT $PAXG

US stocks fell across the board after-hours—what happened?

Tonight, after the US stock market closed, nearly the whole market weakened, and tech stocks couldn’t hold up either.

I think the reason isn’t complicated. Recently, although many large tech companies have reported solid earnings, expectations for AI are already extremely high. As long as the results don’t clearly beat expectations, it’s easy for funds to choose to take profits first. For example, SpaceX and AMD also pulled back after the bell, which reflects that the market is starting to reassess valuations rather than simply chasing AI purchases.

Also, the US market only recently hit a new high a few days ago. Many popular stocks have already gained a lot in a short period, so a pullback at this level is actually pretty normal. Short-term volatility increasing doesn’t mean the long-term trend has ended. If anything, it looks more like funds are rotating and changing hands at high levels, waiting for the next round of new catalysts.

$SNDKB
$SPCXB $NVDA

SpaceX’s earnings look good—why did the stock price drop anyway?

Many people’s first reaction to the earnings report is: “Didn’t revenue beat expectations? Why is it still falling?”

From what I can see, the issue isn’t revenue—it’s that the rate at which they’re spending is faster than the market expected.

This time, SpaceX revenue reached $7.8 billion, which is indeed above market expectations. But AI-related capital expenditures were as high as $15.8 billion—far higher than analysts originally estimated. That has led the market to worry that the company’s profitability over the next few years could be continuously squeezed.

There’s another reason many people may have overlooked: the IPO lock-up period is coming to an end. Next, a large amount of stock that previously couldn’t be sold will gradually become eligible for trading. Naturally, the market starts to worry about upcoming selling pressure ahead of time, so some investors choose to take profits early.

I don’t think this drop looks like the fundamentals suddenly deteriorated. It’s more like the market has started recalculating valuation. After all, the stock has risen too quickly—so as long as capital expenditures continue to increase and the overhang from the lock-up expiration remains, short-term volatility is actually quite normal. As for whether the long-term thesis has changed—my view is that I’d rather keep watching the next few quarters.

#SpaceX上市后首份财报跌11% $SPCX $SNDK

The Trump family’s crypto project has been targeted by U.S. senators

This time, the one mentioned is World Liberty Financial.

Some U.S. senators have urged regulators to investigate, mainly because this project previously used a large amount of $WLFI tokens as collateral and borrowed $75 million. What has really upset the market is that many ordinary investors’ tokens can’t be freely sold, but the project team can already use them to raise financing—such a setup naturally raises questions.

In addition, the senators are also looking into the source of the funds behind it. Previously, there were reports that capital related to the UAE royal family bought nearly half of the equity, with a deal size of roughly $500 million. So what everyone is worried about now is whether there could be more complex financial interests between foreign capital and the Trump family.

At the moment, it’s only a request for an investigation; it doesn’t mean a violation has already occurred. But this matter will definitely continue to develop further.

$TRUMP $USD1

$SNDK SanDisk surged after its earnings report, again validating my previous view.

AI is not only driving GPUs; storage is also an important beneficiary of this round of the market. As AI models continue to get larger, enterprise demand for SSDs, NAND, and enterprise-grade storage keeps rising, and the market has begun to revalue the entire storage sector.

I still believe this main theme of AI infrastructure has not ended. As long as data centers keep expanding, storage demand will not disappear easily.

$SNDKB #

SanDisk $SNDK : Earnings report hits tonight—how long can the AI storage supercycle last?

Tonight, the market is focused not only on Nvidia, but also on the storage leader $SNDK (SanDisk).

The reason is simple: AI is driving storage into a new supercycle. HBM still remains in short supply, and as AI models keep getting larger, enterprise demand for enterprise SSDs and NAND Flash continues to rise. Many institutions believe that over the next few years, storage could become one of the most beneficiary segments of AI infrastructure.

This earnings report is no longer just about revenue and profit. What the market wants to know is whether management will raise its full-year outlook, and what the latest views are on NAND pricing, long-term supply agreements, and AI data center demand. If the company continues to send positive signals, the entire storage sector could attract fresh capital attention again.

$NVDA

South Korea’s leveraged ETF trading volume plunges 90%

Retail traders in South Korea’s most frantic trading has suddenly cooled off.

After regulators raised trading thresholds for single-stock leveraged ETFs, trading volume in related products shrank dramatically from 124 trillion won to about 12 trillion won in just a few trading days—nearly evaporating 90%.

In the past, large amounts of capital used 2x and 3x leverage to chase popular stocks, and market volatility kept rising. As leveraged funds clearly pull back, volatility in South Korea’s stock market has recently begun to decline, and retail speculation fever has also cooled noticeably. Whether this regulatory move can restore rationality to the market remains to be seen and will require time to observe.

#ACT吁三星电子回购320亿美元 $NVDAB $AAPLB $GOOGL.US

Has the market completely changed? The Fed's first-ever public “defiance” from within

Over the past year, markets have been debating when the Fed will cut rates. But now, what the Fed is discussing isn’t whether to cut rates—it’s whether to raise them again.

At the latest policy meeting, there was an unusually large split among Fed officials in recent years. Some officials believe inflation is still too high and even haven’t ruled out another rate hike. Others argued for keeping rates unchanged and continuing to watch economic data.

In the end, the meeting voted 9 to 3 to keep interest rates unchanged. Three officials publicly cast dissenting votes, marking the most obvious policy split in recent years.

Markets are starting to realize that the Fed’s future policy path is no longer as clear as it used to be. If employment and inflation remain strong, expectations of further rate hikes are likely to heat up again.

#穆迪首予SK海力士A级评级
$SNDK $HOME $SKHYNIX

Has Bitcoin faith changed? $MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC

For a long time, Strategy (MSTR) has been the world’s largest enterprise-level Bitcoin holder, and is seen by the market as a long-term bullish representative.

However, the latest data shows that the company has again sold 1,638 BTC for proceeds of about $105 million. Although the scale is clearly smaller than in previous sell-offs, it has still sparked market discussion.

Notably, even after completing the sale, Strategy will still hold about 4% of the world’s circulating Bitcoin, and its position will not change. This sell-off looks more like capital management rather than abandoning a long-term strategy. But for the market, once the largest holding institution starts selling, Bitcoin’s short-term sentiment is bound to be affected to some degree.

$HOME $CRCL

AI, space, stablecoins—three most critical earnings reports of the week are here

What the market is watching most this week isn’t the index, but three companies.

AMD represents AI chips. Market expectations put second-quarter revenue at around $11.3 billion. Data center business is expected to be close to $6.5 billion. Whether demand for AI chips can keep surging is the biggest highlight of this report.

SpaceX faces an important test after going public. Investors are not only focused on Starlink’s continued growth, but also on the large block of internal shares set to be unlocked soon—and how the company plans to respond to the potential sell pressure that may follow.

Circle represents the stablecoin industry. The circulating supply of USDC has fallen somewhat compared with the previous quarter. Investors are watching to see whether stablecoins can still sustain rapid growth. These three companies—AI, the space economy, and crypto—may also help determine where capital flows next.

#SpaceX将公布Q2财报 $AMDB $SPCX $CRCL