紫月湾湾_91391

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This week’s crypto market enters **the “Super Central Bank Week”**
In the early hours of Thursday (9/17), the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the latest interest-rate decision and economic projections. Throughout the week, the market is expected to follow a pattern of “low-volume, wait-and-see action in the first half, with the decision unleashing a directional move in the second half.”

1. Key logic for this week
“Before the rate decision is finalized, it suppresses sentiment and encourages caution. After the decision is announced, direction is revealed through pin-like reactions from above and below.”

From Monday to Wednesday (accumulation period): Market risk-hedging sentiment is strong. The broader market is expected to trade in a range with low volume and narrow fluctuations, and neither bulls nor bears are willing to take an aggressive, heavy position.
From Thursday to the weekend (positioning period): The Fed’s rate decision and Powell’s remarks will set the tone for year-end liquidity. This often leads to “false breakouts / false breakdowns” followed by a quick reversal—i.e., a washout行情.

2. Bull/Bear scenario walkthrough for this week
Scenario A: Dips followed by rebound (high probability; mainly range-building and bottoming)
Path: In the first half of the week, price weakly tests support (BTC retests $76,000 / ETH retests $2,380–$2,400). If the decision signals that the “rate-hike cycle is close to ending,” or is less hawkish than expected, it may trigger short-covering and buyers stepping in, pulling price up with a long lower wick rebound.
Scenario B: Break down lower (medium probability; more hawkish than expected)
Path: If the Fed shows a strongly tightening stance, and ETH breaks below $2,330 and BTC breaks below $75,500, leveraged long positions will be further liquidated. Then price may retrace to $2,200 to seek stronger support.

3. Key ETH levels to watch this week
Overhead rebound resistance:
$2,480 – $2,500 (primary checkpoint: resistance from short-term moving averages on the daily)
$2,550 – $2,600 (strength/weakness line: only a breakout with volume can reverse this daily downtrend)
Downside defense supports:
$2,400 – $2,420 (short-term psychological level: breaking below may trigger stop-losses for short-term longs)
$2,330 – $2,350 (swing “lifeline”: once the real body breaks below, the structure is likely to shift into a deeper pullback)

4. Trading recommendations for this week
Tone: Stay conservative and wait for signals
Strategy:
1. Do less before Wednesday; observe more: Avoid blindly guessing direction or adding leverage during low-volume, range-bound volatility.
2. Closely track the key needle-points (pin reactions): If before/around Thursday, near $2,400 or $2,350 there is a stop-the-bleeding signal such as a high-volume close with a long lower wick, that’s a higher-probability “right-side” entry timing. Until price stands above $2,550, treat all rebounds as weak corrective moves first.

$BTC $ETH

Recently feeling a bit good~
Those four red boxes are really displeasing 😛

Yesterday (9/17) before and after the U.S. stock market close, the daily close structure was forming (at the time, it was mostly accumulating power in the $1,340–$1,380 range). And this morning through the move just now has been a second burst of bullish momentum—straight into a violent short squeeze breakout:

♦️Current market situation: Once the $1,400 integer psychological level was swept through with volume, the entire short-sell defense line above was liquidated, triggering stop-losses, and pushing the coin price directly toward a sprint to $1,470+.

♦️Key levels updated immediately:
Resistance above: $1,500 integer strong resistance (if it can close above it with a real body, next we’ll look at $1,550).
Support below turned into: What used to be resistance in the $1,400–$1,420 area has now flipped to become the first pullback support; stronger defensive support for the swing moves up to $1,340–$1,360.

♦️Short-term reminder:
1H and 4H chart RSI is already severely overbought. After this sharp surge, it’s extremely likely to see a “wick/pin test” for stop-hunts or a brutal pullback to confirm. At this stage, avoid blindly opening high-leverage market longs; watch for profit-taking sell pressure in the $1,470–$1,500 zone.

📝From the 1086 long on 9/14, rolling and carrying all the way up,
right now I’m taking a small short position to see 😛
Don’t randomly chase shorts and get knocked out—I won’t manage that 😂

$SNDK $ETH

Damn it—clumsy me accidentally closed my low position 😵‍💫

Lick it and run 😆

Keep it a bit rough; a little wool feels a bit good.

Yesterday (Friday, September 11, 2026)
The cryptocurrency market continued to maintain a weak defensive posture,
with rising U.S. Treasury yields driven by hotter U.S. inflation data,
which suppressed overall risk-asset sentiment.
After backtesting at the lower end, the market saw a weak rebound.
Sentiment fell to neutral but cautious (Fear & Greed Index around 56).

♦️Bitcoin (BTC):
Intraday pullback of about 1.2%–2.0%. Pressured during the session, it dipped to a low of around $76,500 – $76,800. Ahead of and around the U.S. stock close, it rebounded slightly from the lows and then stabilized near $77,000 – $77,300.
♦️Ethereum (ETH):
Down about 1.2%, closing around $2,430 – $2,440. Price action continued to underperform BTC.
♦️Altcoins & Market Share:
Bitcoin’s market dominance (BTC Dominance) rose to about 58.5%. Capital withdrew from mid/small-cap altcoins to take a safer stance; the Fear & Greed Index fell to 56 (neutral to cautious).

CPI inflation persistence weighs on the market:
Core inflation data boosted hawkish expectations for next week’s FOMC meeting. U.S. Treasury yields stayed elevated, and high-risk assets—such as tech stocks and cryptocurrencies—faced broad pressure.

♦️BTC key support: $76,500 – $77,000
(Daily EMA20 and the bottom of the short-term range box; held successfully yesterday.)
Key resistance: $78,000 – $78,500
(Breaking prior-wave neckline; a rebound counts as strengthening only after the body can stand back above.)

♦️ETH key resistance: $2,480 – $2,500
(An area of dense resistance around the daily EMA; first key test for any rebound)
Strong resistance: $2,520 – $2,550
(The prior-wave neckline that broke plus a dense trapped-fund zone; volume is needed to hold and confirm a shift to short-term strength.)

Key support: $2,400 – $2,420
(Recent dip lows and the round-number psychological level; yesterday initially halted the selloff.)
Strong support: $2,330 – $2,350
(Bottom of the swing structure; if it breaks to the downside with volume, it could open up correction room.)

♦️A range-building period dominated by the bears.
No clear reversal structure has formed yet.
Right now it’s a “churn phase” with overhead resolution/unwinding pressure near the highs, and below that, defense from swing moving averages.
With lower weekend liquidity, maintain a conservative watch-and-wait stance—don’t chase shorts and don’t rush into a heavy bottom-buy. Wait for next week’s rate decision to become clearer.