奔跑财经-FinaceRun

CoinGecko Q1 2026 Report: Cryptocurrency Market Total Value Shrinks Over 20%, Trading Volume Hits New Low Since November 2023

According to Coingecko's Q1 2026 report, the global cryptocurrency market has undergone a deep adjustment. The total market value of cryptocurrencies has dropped from $3.02 trillion to $2.4 trillion, a decrease of 20.4% (approximately $622 billion), retreating about 45% from the historical peak in October 2025.

Bitcoin led the decline, with prices falling 22% in the first quarter, significantly underperforming major U.S. stock indices. Traditional assets have shown greater resilience, attracting some funds away from the cryptocurrency market.

The stablecoin market remains overall stable, maintaining a total market value of $309.9 billion, but there is a clear trend of divergence within the market structure;

Specifically, the issuance of USDT has seen a significant decrease for the first time since the second quarter, dropping by 1.6% to $184.1 billion; USDC has grown against the trend by 2.4%, reaching $77.1 billion; while emerging stablecoins such as USDS and USD1 have increased by over 30%.

Meanwhile, market trading activity has also significantly contracted. The spot trading volume of the top ten centralized exchanges has declined by 39.1% compared to the fourth quarter of last year, down to $2.7 trillion. Trading volume in March fell to $0.8 trillion, marking a new low since November 2023.

In decentralized trading, Solana continues to lead with a 30.6% market share. BSC slightly outperformed ETH in the first quarter with a 24.5% market share (approximately 23.7%), maintaining its position as second in market share.

Additionally, against the backdrop of rising tensions in the Middle East, the demand for perpetual contracts on the decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid has surged, with both open contract volume and trading volume hitting historical highs for several consecutive weeks.

Overall, the market in the first quarter has been under dual pressure from geopolitical tensions and expectations for Federal Reserve policy, but the growth potential shown in specific areas such as commodity derivatives on decentralized exchanges provides new operational direction references for the contract market.

#CoinGeckoQ1报告

The American think tank calls for the abolition of capital gains tax on Bitcoin, allowing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to compete freely

Recently, the American think tank Cato Institute has called on Congress to abolish the capital gains tax levied on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, arguing that the current tax system hinders monetary competition and suppresses the practicality of cryptocurrencies as a payment tool.

Cato Institute policy scholar Nicholas Anthony pointed out in a report on Wednesday that the capital gains tax hinders the use of alternative currencies like Bitcoin, as it encourages long-term holding and increases the reporting burden on users.

He also mentioned that Bitcoin users suffer greatly during tax season; although Bitcoin transactions are now very convenient, the tax law burden makes it difficult for law-abiding citizens. For example, simply purchasing coffee can generate nearly a hundred pages of tax reporting materials.

Anthony believes that the most direct solution is to abolish the capital gains tax entirely, creating a more competitive market environment; another solution is to eliminate the special capital gains tax on the use of cryptocurrencies and foreign currencies, thereby reducing government intervention and allowing the market to naturally compete to determine the quality of tokens.

He also mentioned the “de minimis” exemption scheme, where users would only trigger the capital gains tax once a specific threshold is reached. He cautioned that requiring users to prove each transaction was for the purchase of goods or services to qualify for the exemption could create “another compliance nightmare.”

According to a survey by the National Cryptocurrency Association in 2025, 39% of American cryptocurrency holders have used crypto assets to purchase goods and services.

Meanwhile, academic publishing company Springer Nature has utilized BTC Ma tracking statistics to find that there are currently about 11,000 merchants worldwide accepting Bitcoin payments.

Overall, Anthony believes that Congress should simplify tax laws to enable ordinary Americans to easily meet compliance requirements. This would not only greatly alleviate the pressure on Americans during each tax season but also create a more competitive economic environment.

#加密货币资本利得税

Analyst: BTC accumulation trend and selling pressure coexist, with clear divergence in the flow of funds in the crypto market

CryptoQuant analyst "Darkfost" stated that Bitcoin has experienced two months of outflows from exchanges, with a monthly average net outflow of 1,640 BTC since the beginning of March.

The analysis suggests that this ongoing phenomenon of BTC outflows from exchanges indicates that investors are accumulating and holding long-term, which has formed a clear structural accumulation trend and is seen as a positive signal.

However, according to another report from CryptoQuant's on-chain data on Wednesday, after Bitcoin reached the resistance level of $75,000, exchange inflows surged, with approximately 11,000 BTC flowing in per hour, reaching the highest level since December 2025.

Currently, the average deposit amount on exchanges has soared to 2.25 BTC, primarily driven by large transfers exceeding 1,000 BTC to Binance, indicating that large holders are selling at a high, suggesting ongoing selling pressure and price correction.

The Glassnode weekly report pointed out that $78,100 is a key resistance level recently, and the current Bitcoin price is only about 5.2% lower than this price. However, the analysis also noted that while the BTC price has not yet stabilized above this threshold, there is still a significant possibility of a breakthrough in the medium term.

It is worth noting that after Bitcoin reached a high of $75,200 on Wednesday, it fell back to $74,500, and on Thursday morning in Asia, it rebounded again above $75,000. Its price is still encountering strong resistance around the upper boundary of the nearly ten-week range oscillation channel.

Analyst Ted Pillows provided a clear viewpoint predicting that Bitcoin has broken through a seven-month downtrend and may move towards the $77,000-$78,000 mark, and then drop to a new low in the second quarter of 2026.

Overall, the ongoing outflow of funds from exchanges highlights investors' accumulation confidence, but large holders selling at high prices warns of potential selling pressure risks; in this tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the future trend still depends on whether the accumulation strength can effectively withstand the selling pressure risks.

#比特币 #市场分析

The X platform launches the Cashtags feature to integrate real-time US stock market and cryptocurrency data

Recently, Elon Musk's social platform X has launched a new feature called "Cashtags," allowing users to view real-time price charts for stocks and cryptocurrencies directly within the app. This feature is currently available only to iPhone users in the United States and Canada.

Nikita Bier, the product head of X, announced this significant news and pointed out that the X platform has long been an important channel for traders and investors to access financial news and information.

The newly launched Cashtags feature on the platform is similar to traditional tags but is specifically designed for the financial sector. When users enter a stock code or cryptocurrency token with a dollar sign (e.g., $BTC), the system automatically converts it into a clickable link;

Users can simply click on this link to directly see the price chart and discussion posts related to the asset. This feature greatly facilitates traders, allowing them to avoid frequent switching between X and other charting tools.

According to Bier, when users search for or post a cashtag for a specific asset or contract address, X will automatically recommend relevant stocks or cryptocurrencies for users to choose from. By clicking on the cashtag, users can view relevant posts and price charts without leaving the X app.

This way, users can align platform discussions with the corresponding tokens or stocks, and traders do not have to switch between X and separate charting tools to verify the content they read.

It is reported that the launch of the Cashtags feature is not a completely new concept. As early as the end of 2022, X had conducted a brief trial using data from TradingView and eToro.

Earlier this year, Bier revisited the topic of how to widely promote cryptocurrencies on the X platform while eliminating spam interference, leading to renewed market anticipation for Cashtags.

The community has responded positively, with users praising the feature as "well-designed" for tracking cryptocurrency and stock market sentiment. Some even suggested expanding Cashtags to cover real-time events in sports, news, and other areas.

It is noteworthy that as this feature goes live, the cryptocurrency market is showing signs of recovery. Bitcoin broke through $75,000 yesterday, reaching a new high in nearly a month, and Ethereum also touched $2,400.

#Cashtags #实时数据

The total net inflow of the US BTC and ETH spot ETFs reached nearly $254 million on Wednesday

On April 16, according to the latest data from SoSovalue, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a total net inflow of $186 million yesterday, marking the second day of inflows this week;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT and Morgan Stanley's MSBT recorded nearly $292 million (approximately 3,900 BTC) and $19.32 million (258.16 BTC) in single-day net inflow, respectively;

Meanwhile, Fidelity's FBTC, Ark 21Shares ARKB, and Grayscale's GBTC had net outflows of $47.35 million (632.51 BTC), $42.22 million (564.09 BTC), and $23.35 million (311.95 BTC), respectively, making them the top three for net outflows yesterday;

Next, Bitwise BITB and VanEck HODL had single-day net outflows of $8.54 million (114.04 BTC) and $3.70 million (49.50 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $97.57 billion, accounting for 6.51% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of $57.05 billion.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a total net inflow of $67.85 million, continuing a five-day streak of inflows; and yesterday, there was also no single ETH ETF with net outflows;

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA and Grayscale's ETH had net inflows of $31.51 million (approximately 13,290 ETH) and $24.79 million (approximately 10,450 ETH), ranking first and second in net inflows yesterday;

Next, BlackRock's ETHB and Franklin EZET recorded net inflows of $9.76 million (approximately 4,120 ETH) and $1.80 million (758.16 ETH), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $13.79 billion, accounting for 4.84% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of $11.80 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

The analyst who accurately predicted and shorted the top raises the short-term short target for BTC

An analyst in the cryptocurrency space, Doctor Profit, who successfully predicted the shorting of Bitcoin in the range of $115,000 - $125,000, has now adjusted his trading plan.

Although he still holds a bearish outlook on the mid-term market for BTC, the path to his target price has changed significantly.

Doctor Profit originally planned to establish a long position at $71,000 and completely close out and establish a short position in the $79,000 - $84,000 range.

However, based on the latest market analysis, he now decides to close half of his long position in the $76,200 area to lock in some profits while adjusting the stop-loss level to the entry price.

Doctor Profit's analysis suggests that there is a high probability of Bitcoin's price rising to the $76,000 area in the short term, but the probability of reaching the $79,000 - $84,000 range is only moderate.

This judgment is based on the recent price uptrend of Bitcoin due to inflows of funds. Especially in the past few days, the inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have continuously pushed its spot price above $76,000.

Doctor Profit initially established a short position around $120,000, which proved to be an excellent timing for the decision. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000 in October last year, but subsequently, due to new tariff threats from the U.S. against China, the BTC price continued to decline until the end of January, validating his bearish judgment.

In the following two months, Bitcoin's price oscillated within the range of $65,000 - $75,000. Although Doctor Profit has secured some profits, he remains firmly bearish, with his original short position target price consistently set below $55,000.

Doctor Profit also marked three short downside targets in the chart he shared, which are: Short Target 1 at approximately $54,396, Short Target 2 at $46,392, and Short Target 3 at $39,388.

However, at this point, he plans not to open new short positions near $76,000. He believes that the market frenzy and subsequent buying might push the price up to the $79,000 to $84,000 range, which would be a more ideal entry point.

How do you view the market outlook for the cryptocurrency market? Do you lean more towards a short-term bullish breakout or a bearish correction?

#Bitcoin price analysis

Analyst: Bitcoin short squeeze pattern may drive its price to break through to $85,000-$88,000

Bitcoin price touched a high of $76,000 on Tuesday, but then fell back to around $74,000. Although this rise did not manage to hold at the peak, the market dynamics have attracted analysts' attention.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out in a post on X on Wednesday that the current negative funding rates and the rising open contracts near resistance levels are typical signals of a short squeeze;

Based on this, van de Poppe predicts that these factors may lead to a significant increase in Bitcoin prices, with a target range of $85,000 to $88,000.

From the market performance perspective, although a "shooting star" pattern appeared on the daily chart at $76,000, which is usually interpreted as a bearish signal, the higher lows and higher highs in the shorter time frame indicate that the buyer's market is still active.

Therefore, he sets the support level for BTC at around $72,000, leaning towards going long above this price. However, if it successfully breaks through and holds above $75,000, the next resistance level is expected to be in the $85,000 to $88,000 range.

But almost at the same time, trader George took a relatively cautious stance. George believes that only if the weekly closing price is above $74,000 can a real breakout be confirmed;

He also warned that without confirmation of the weekly closing price, this could just be another liquidity grab, and the price may return to range-bound trading.

In terms of market background, the main driving factor for this round of price increase is that U.S. Vice President Vance stated on Tuesday that progress has been made in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to a macro positive impact, increasing the cryptocurrency market's daily market value by about $100 billion.

In summary, although analysts have differing views on the short-term market trends, the short squeeze pattern, as well as macro positives and technical support create conditions for an increase.

As for how the subsequent market trends will unfold, it is still important to observe whether this week's closing price can break through and hold above the key resistance level of $75,000, as this will serve as an important reference for judging market trends.

#Bitcoin

The State Bank of Pakistan overturns the 2018 cryptocurrency ban, allowing banks to open accounts for licensed virtual asset service providers

Recently, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) overturned the cryptocurrency ban issued in 2018 and officially allowed banks to open bank accounts for licensed virtual asset service providers (VASP).

This policy adjustment is based on the "Virtual Assets Bill" promulgated in 2026, marking the first time Pakistan has included crypto-related enterprises into the formal banking system.

According to the new regulations, banks must verify the license issued by the Pakistan Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (PVARA) held by virtual asset service providers before accepting them and must open separate "client funds accounts" for customers in Pakistani Rupees.

The new regulations implement strict account segregation standards, requiring that such accounts must be completely separate from the service provider's own accounts, with a strict prohibition on fund commingling; at the same time, the accounts do not accrue interest, cash deposits and withdrawals are prohibited, and the balance cannot be used as collateral for any form of loan or financing guarantee.

In terms of risk management, banks still need to undertake customer due diligence, risk analysis, and suspicious transaction reporting obligations to ensure that business operations fully comply with regulatory requirements.

In addition, banks must dynamically adjust customer risk profile models in conjunction with various risks in the virtual asset field and continuously monitor the business relationship with virtual asset service providers. If suspicious transactions are discovered, they must promptly report them to the financial monitoring department.

It is worth noting that banks may provide account services to licensed virtual asset service providers, but it is strictly prohibited to utilize the provider's own funds or customer deposits for investment, trading, or holding operations in virtual assets.

Additionally, entities holding a No Objection Certificate (NOC) from PVARA can open limited-purpose accounts for license applications, but only after the entity officially obtains the license can the bank provide comprehensive services, including transactions related to virtual assets.

#巴基斯坦 #Ban Lifted

Société Générale ramps up its crypto business, reaching a vast number of users through MetaMask

According to Cointelegraph, Société Générale is collaborating with Consensys through its crypto division SG-FORGE to integrate its USDCV stablecoin into the MetaMask wallet, expanding its usage channels to millions of users.

As a European financial institution with over 160 years of history, Société Générale had previously launched the USDCV stablecoin, which is backed by the US dollar, on the Ethereum, Solana, and Stellar blockchains, with custody managed by BNY Mellon.

Before the launch of USDCV, the bank had already issued a euro stablecoin, EURCV, compliant with EU MiCA regulatory standards, and deployed it to the XRP Ledger in February this year, making it the fourth blockchain network to support the stablecoin after Ethereum, Solana, and Stellar.

However, despite having a strong brand background and regulatory compliance advantages, the euro stablecoin EURCV initially underperformed in a market dominated by established crypto institutions.

Currently, the total market capitalization of stablecoins worldwide is approximately $321 billion, with USDT and USDC dominating. The CEO of SG-FORGE stated that launching the US dollar stablecoin is a natural choice for the bank in the context of rapidly increasing market acceptance of stablecoins.

Specifically, the stablecoin market is still primarily dollar-denominated. Therefore, the launch of the new USDCV stablecoin will allow our clients, whether they are institutions, corporations, or individual investors, to enjoy the advantages and services provided by institutional-grade stablecoins.

Overall, Société Générale is promoting institutional-grade compliant stablecoins through user self-custody wallets, aiming to cover millions of users, with expectations to enhance on-chain liquidity and accelerate the integration of traditional finance and DeFi.

This initiative not only reflects traditional financial institutions' ongoing exploration of the digital asset space but also showcases the bridging role of compliant stablecoins in connecting traditional finance with decentralized finance ecosystems, providing new pathways for industry innovation and development.

#法国兴业银行 #稳定币

STRC's Monday trading volume set a single-day historical record, with daily liquidity far exceeding that of the seven major American technology giants.

According to a post by Strategy on X, the STRC perpetual preferred shares achieved a record single-day trading volume of $1.1 billion on April 13, 46.5% higher than the previous record, and more than four times its 300-day average trading volume of $274 million.

This growth is also directly reflected in the trading share, with the current STRC daily trading volume accounting for 90% of MSTR's total daily trading volume, up from only 10% five months ago.

STRC is listed on Nasdaq and pays an annual cash dividend of 11.5%, with the interest rate adjusted monthly to keep the stock price close to its $100 par value. This security has no maturity date and does not return principal, but rather raises funds through dividends and issuing new shares to purchase Bitcoin.

Market analysts estimate that this market-priced acquisition process is expected to purchase 9,894 BTC. In the previous week, Strategy spent $1 billion to acquire 13,927 BTC at an average price of about $72,000.

Analyst Adam Livingston estimates that if the annual dividend expenditure is about $98 million, the total over ten years would be less than $1 billion;

If Bitcoin grows at a compound annual growth rate of 25%, its corresponding value will approach $8 billion, with a theoretical interest differential of about $7 billion after deducting dividends.

Additionally, according to Strategy President Phong Le's sharing last week, STRC's 30-day average trading volume accounts for 4.8% of its market value, surpassing the seven major American technology giants. This means that a $100 BTC preferred share has liquidity that exceeds all major tech stocks in the U.S.

Strategy co-founder and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor previously stated that the company's ability to pay dividends indefinitely depends on whether Bitcoin's long-term growth rate continues to exceed the 2% annual breakeven point.

Boosted by easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, Bitcoin's price surged past nearly $75,000 on Monday, while the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies briefly increased by over $100 billion to $2.54 trillion.

In summary, STRC's record trading volume showcases the strong demand in the capital markets for Bitcoin investment tools and reflects that Strategy's innovative financing model is gaining market recognition.

As Bitcoin prices continue to rise and market liquidity strengthens, STRC is expected to continue playing an important role in the cryptocurrency investment field, becoming a vital bridge connecting traditional finance and digital assets.

#STRC

South Korea plans to promote the reform of the basic pension system, incorporating overseas assets and virtual assets into the income recognition scope

According to a report by Edaily on April 15, the South Korean government is promoting significant reforms to the basic pension system (기초연금), planning to include overseas financial assets and virtual assets (cryptocurrencies) in the calculation of income recognition. This reform initiative aims to prevent high-asset individuals from exploiting loopholes in the system to obtain pensions while enhancing the fairness of the system.

It is reported that the current basic pension review in South Korea only checks domestic assets, making it impossible to accurately grasp applicants' overseas financial assets and virtual asset holdings. The core of this reform is to address this long-standing shortcoming in the system.

To this end, the South Korean government plans to amend the Basic Pension Act by strengthening the obligations for reporting overseas income and assets and enhancing tax information linkage to achieve comprehensive verification of personal assets. The bill was proposed in 2025 and is currently under discussion in the National Assembly.

In addition to expanding the scope of asset verification, the South Korean government will also optimize the property deduction system. The government will adjust the property assessment standards in light of rising living costs, making the deduction standards more aligned with reality, ensuring that the basic pension truly benefits elderly individuals in need.

At the same time, the government plans to introduce domestic residency duration requirements, referencing practices from OECD countries such as Australia, Canada, Norway, and Sweden, to restrict the eligibility of returnees who have lived abroad for an extended period.

Specifically, the current system stipulates that individuals over 65 years old with income in the lowest 70% can apply for pensions, without any domestic residency time limits. The new system proposes adding eligibility criteria requiring individuals to have resided in the country for a certain number of years after turning 19.

It is worth noting that since the introduction of the basic pension in South Korea in 2014, it has played an important role in alleviating poverty among the elderly, with the payment amount increasing from 200,000 KRW per month to approximately 350,000 KRW this year.

However, with the rapid aging population leading to increased financial burdens, ensuring the sustainability of the system has also become an important issue. Experts emphasize that while strengthening residency requirements, supplementary measures need to be formulated to prevent vulnerable groups from falling through the cracks.

#韩国 #养老保障

The U.S. BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of nearly $465 million on Tuesday.

On April 15, according to the latest data from SoSovalue, the U.S. BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of nearly $412 million yesterday, marking the first day of net inflow of funds this week; and there was no net outflow from any BTC ETF yesterday;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT, Ark 21Shares ARKB, and Fidelity's FBTC ranked the top three in net inflow yesterday with nearly $214 million (approximately 2,880 BTC), $113 million (approximately 1,520 BTC), and $45.28 million (609.67 BTC), respectively;

Following them were Morgan Stanley's MSBT and Bitwise BITB, which recorded single-day net inflows of $15.54 million (209.24 BTC) and $12.50 million (168.35 BTC), respectively;

VanEck HODL and Grayscale BTC saw single-day net inflows of $6.30 million (84.84 BTC) and $4.93 million (66.36 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $96.56 billion, accounting for 6.51% of Bitcoin's total market value, with a cumulative net inflow of $56.86 billion.

On the same day, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $53.03 million, continuing a trend of net inflows for four days; and similarly, there was no net outflow from any ETH ETF yesterday;

Fidelity's FETH and BlackRock's ETHA led the net inflow rankings yesterday with $38.06 million (approximately 16,440 ETH) and $10.49 million (approximately 4,530 ETH), respectively;

Grayscale ETH and BlackRock's ETHB saw single-day net inflows of $3.29 million (approximately 1,420 ETH) and $1.19 million (514.43 ETH), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $13.39 billion, accounting for 4.79% of Ethereum's total market value, with a cumulative net inflow of $11.73 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

The IRS reporting rate among U.S. cryptocurrency investors is low, with only 12% to 21% holding and just 6.5% reporting.

On April 15, Bloomberg reported that U.S. cryptocurrency investors generally have a significant issue with underreporting their digital asset holdings to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), which has caught the attention of regulatory agencies.

Tyler Menzer, an assistant professor at Texas Christian University, found through analyzing anonymous IRS tax data that a large number of cryptocurrency investors failed to accurately report their digital asset transactions to the IRS, leading to a significant tax compliance gap.

Specifically, between 2013 and 2021, only 6.5% of taxpayers reported cryptocurrency sales, while surveys during the same period showed that 12% to 21% of U.S. adults had held cryptocurrency.

Additionally, data from a CoinTracker survey indicated that cryptocurrency investors needed to report an average of 836 transactions for the 2025 tax year, but the high frequency and complexity of transaction records added real challenges to compliance reporting.

From the characteristics of investors, cryptocurrency holders tend to be younger and have lower incomes, and they are more inclined to hold meme tokens, with trading behaviors significantly differing from traditional stock investors.

Research also found that after the IRS added a checkbox for virtual currency on tax forms, the reporting rate of self-reporting investors significantly increased;

However, this situation has also led to increased enforcement pressure on the IRS in terms of tax regulation, as tax reporting is mainly concentrated on compliant taxpayers rather than on potential non-compliant individuals.

To address this phenomenon, the IRS has launched a comprehensive upgrade of its cryptocurrency tax regulatory system, aimed specifically at cryptocurrency tax reporting issues.

This multi-year plan includes measures such as upgrading the reporting system, enhancing data analysis capabilities, and providing specialized cryptocurrency tax training for auditors.

At the strategic level, the IRS has explicitly classified digital assets as a high-priority enforcement area and has invested substantial resources to narrow the identified tax gap.

This series of actions indicates that the IRS's future tax regulation on cryptocurrency transactions will become increasingly strict, and the risk of enforcement for non-compliant behaviors is also rising.

#税务申报

Bernstein predicts: the prediction market will reach a scale of 1 trillion US dollars by 2030, and regulatory games will not change the long-term growth trend

According to the latest estimates from Wall Street brokerage Bernstein, the prediction market is expected to reach a scale of 1 trillion US dollars by 2030.

The agency's report predicts that the trading volume of the prediction market is expected to reach 240 billion US dollars by 2026, an increase of 370% compared to 2025, and this market trend is expected to maintain an approximate 80% compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2030.

From the market landscape, the prediction market shows a dual oligopoly situation, with Kalshi occupying over 90% of the market share, its weekly trading volume skyrocketing from about 100 million US dollars a year ago to over 3 billion US dollars, being rated by Bank of America as one of the fastest-growing non-AI companies, with Polymarket following closely behind.

Data shows that from the beginning of this year to now, the cumulative trading volume of the two major prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, has reached 60 billion US dollars, exceeding the total trading volume of 51 billion US dollars for the entire year of 2025;

At the same time, platforms like Robinhood, DraftKings, and Underdog are also entering the market. Among them, Robinhood's prediction market has achieved an annualized revenue of 350 million US dollars in its first year, with trading volume accounting for about 30% of Kalshi's total, becoming the fastest-growing business line on the platform.

The explosive growth of the prediction market began in 2024, when trading volume surged significantly due to the US presidential election, and then expanded to sports events, cryptocurrencies, and macroeconomic political contracts in 2025, further driving the market's continuous growth.

Bernstein analysts point out that as the federal level of regulation becomes clearer, it will further enhance the potential of the prediction market, while the integration of blockchain tokenization and cryptocurrencies will also provide more liquidity to the market.

Although the CFTC has always advocated for exclusive regulatory authority over the prediction market, 14 states in the US have already initiated judicial proceedings against the prediction market under the pretext of sports betting regulatory authority, and there are also 4 related bills pending in Congress, indicating that concerns about insider trading in the market have significantly increased.

Overall, despite the uncertainty in the short-term regulatory environment, Bernstein still maintains a long-term optimistic judgment, believing that gradually clearer regulations will enhance the legitimacy and mainstream acceptance of the market, and related prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket will continue to benefit from the explosive growth of the industry.

#预测市场 #伯恩斯坦

Strategy invested $1 billion last week to increase its BTC holdings, Bitmine recorded the largest single-week purchase of ETH in months

According to a post on the X platform by Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, last week, Strategy purchased approximately 13,927 bitcoins with about $1 billion in funds, with an average purchase cost of about $71,902 per coin.

It is noteworthy that the previous two purchases of BTC by Strategy were 1,031 coins and 4,871 coins, respectively, and this increase far exceeds the sum of the previous two, highlighting the significance of this increase.

This transaction pushed the company's total bitcoin holdings to over 780,000 coins, reaching 780,897 coins, with a total investment cost nearing $60 billion, currently valued at about $59.2 billion.

Despite the market crash in early February, the company's bitcoin position has remained below the average cost line of $75,577. However, at current prices, about 6.3% of the large bitcoin holdings are in a loss position.

However, Saylor claimed in another post that the breakeven point for Strategy's bitcoin investment is only 2.05%, and if the long-term increase in bitcoin exceeds this figure, the company will be able to maintain dividend payments without issuing MSTR stock.

Meanwhile, another company with ETH as its core reserve, Bitmine, is also maintaining a weekly increase, having added 71,524 ETH in the past week, the largest single-week increase since the end of December 2025.

Overall, despite the continued consolidation in the cryptocurrency market over the past few months, institutions have not retreated due to short-term price fluctuations but instead accelerated their accumulation during the market adjustment phase.

If geopolitical conflicts worsen and prices continue to decline, whether the leveraged models relied upon by institutions can be sustained remains a point of continuous attention for investors. This is because tracking the layout trends of these institutional whales often provides more meaningful reference than blindly predicting short-term market trends.

#Strategy #机构吸筹

The easing of the US-Iran situation has spurred a market rebound, with Bitcoin approaching $75,000

Influenced by the news of the easing US-Iran situation, market risk aversion has significantly cooled, leading to a collective rebound in risk assets. Bitcoin has risen sharply, nearing $75,000, reaching a new high in nearly a month.

Analysts believe that as the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East de-escalates, market concerns about sudden risks have eased, creating a relatively loose external environment for the cryptocurrency market, which is an important driver for Bitcoin's short-term strength.

According to US Vice President JD Vance, significant progress has been made in US-Iran negotiations. He also hinted this week that the outcome of the final negotiations will depend on Iran's side, and he anticipates that both sides will move towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The positive signals from this geopolitical situation not only boosted Bitcoin's rise but also led to a rebound in the entire cryptocurrency market, adding over $100 billion to the total market capitalization of the entire industry.

It is worth noting that the performance of some mainstream altcoins, such as Ethereum, has even exceeded that of Bitcoin, indicating a significant warming of market sentiment in the short term.

However, some analysts claim that Bitcoin's recent rise may not necessarily indicate an improvement in fundamentals, but rather could be due to the previous market decline being too steep, causing everyone to be "overly pessimistic." This rise may just be a technical rebound and not a true market reversal.

Overall, although the easing of geopolitical tensions provides short-term positive support for the cryptocurrency market, it is essential for the market to remain vigilant against potential risks such as geopolitical fluctuations and regulatory negotiations that could change, maintaining rationality during rapid upward trends and avoiding excessive chasing of highs.

#比特币 #价格分析

The US BTC spot ETF saw a total net outflow of $291 million on Monday, while the ETH ETF recorded a daily net inflow of $9.44 million.

On April 14, according to the latest data from SoSovalue, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a total net outflow of $291 million yesterday, marking the first day of net outflow for the week;

Among them, Fidelity FBTC and Ark 21Shares ARKB recorded the highest and second highest net outflows yesterday, with $229 million (approximately 3,140 BTC) and $62.89 million (862.73 BTC), respectively;

Grayscale's GBTC and BTC and VanEck HODL recorded net outflows of $38.25 million (524.74 BTC), $11.03 million (151.38 BTC), and $2.58 million (35.35 BTC) in a single day;

It is worth noting that BlackRock IBIT, Bitwise BITB, and Morgan Stanley MSBT recorded single-day net inflows of $34.70 million (476.06 BTC), $11.88 million (162.92 BTC), and $6.28 million (86.14 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF is $94.51 billion, accounting for 6.45% of the total market capitalization of Bitcoin, with a cumulative total net inflow of $56.45 billion.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $9.44 million, marking the third consecutive day of net inflow;

Among them, BlackRock ETHB, Grayscale ETH, and Fidelity FETH recorded net inflows of $5.78 million (approximately 2,570 ETH), $5.15 million (approximately 2,290 ETH), and $3.93 million (approximately 1,750 ETH), respectively;

Meanwhile, BlackRock ETHA and 21Shares TETH recorded net outflows of $4.07 million (approximately 1,810 ETH) and $1.35 million (599.06 ETH) in a single day;

As of now, the total net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF is $12.98 billion, accounting for 4.77% of the total market capitalization of Ethereum, with a cumulative total net inflow of $11.68 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Trump signs $2.5 trillion U.S. economic stimulus bill? Investors should be wary of short-term sentiment speculation

According to market news, U.S. President Trump has just signed a massive U.S. economic stimulus bill that will inject $2.5 trillion in liquidity into the market over the next year, which may provide a strong boost to the global financial markets.

Although this news will undoubtedly create short-term positive sentiment in the market, no official confirmation has yet been released.

From a policy perspective, such a large-scale economic stimulus plan must go through congressional review procedures before it can be signed into effect by the president, so the authenticity of this news is questionable;

Even assuming Trump indeed forces the policy into effect through a presidential order, large-scale fiscal spending may temporarily boost stock market asset valuations, but it will also exacerbate the U.S. fiscal deficit and inflationary pressures, potentially overextending the market's long-term growth momentum.

For the cryptocurrency market, such news serves more as a short-term sentiment catalyst. Investors need to be cautious about the volatility risks brought by speculative news and should return to the fundamentals to rationally assess the true trends in the market.

#刺激政策 #市场情绪

In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network reached $532 million, with short positions suffering the most severe losses.

According to Coinglass data, a large-scale liquidation phenomenon occurred in the cryptocurrency market within the last 24 hours, with the total liquidation amount reaching $532 million.

Among these liquidations, the short position liquidations accounted for the majority, reaching $428 million, while long position liquidations amounted to $104 million, showing that the severe fluctuations in market conditions have had a greater impact on short investors.

From the perspective of specific cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, as mainstream cryptocurrencies in the market, have particularly noteworthy liquidation situations. Among them, the liquidation amount for Bitcoin short positions reached $218 million, far exceeding the long position liquidation of $11.225 million;

Ethereum also exhibited a similar trend, with short position liquidations reaching $115 million and long position liquidations at $20.9753 million. This distribution of data reflects that in the current market environment, short traders face significantly higher liquidation risks than long traders.

Statistics indicate that in the past 24 hours, a total of 179,086 traders globally encountered liquidations, a figure that fully illustrates the widespread impact of market fluctuations on a large number of investors.

Among these liquidation cases, the largest single liquidation occurred in the Aster-BTCUSDT trading pair, valued at $12.4072 million, highlighting the tremendous risks of high-leverage trading under extreme market conditions.

Overall, this large-scale liquidation event also serves as a reminder to investors that while participating in leveraged trading, they must pay more attention to risk control, set reasonable stop-loss levels, and avoid significant losses due to erroneous judgments in short-term extreme unilateral market conditions.

#加密货币 #爆仓数据

The second round of talks between the U.S. and Iran may take place this Thursday, with Islamabad and Geneva as alternative locations.

After failing to reach an agreement in the last round of negotiations, both sides are still in contact and are discussing the arrangements for holding the second round of face-to-face talks.

According to foreign media reports, U.S. government officials are internally discussing specific arrangements for holding the second round of talks before the temporary ceasefire agreement expires, and whether the talks can ultimately take place will depend on the progress of communications among the parties in the coming days.

Regarding the location of the talks, two main options are currently being considered. The capital of Pakistan, Islamabad, has again become a topic of discussion for hosting the talks, and Geneva in Switzerland has also been listed as a possible alternative location.

Sources reveal that before finally confirming Islamabad as the venue for the last negotiations, various alternative locations were considered, including Vienna, Austria, and Istanbul, Turkey, with Geneva and Islamabad now back on the list for consideration.

Although the specific timing of the talks has not yet been finalized, there are indications that the talks may take place on Thursday. However, according to reports from Russian News Agency's social media, the next round of "direct negotiations" between the U.S. and Iran may be held on the 16th in Islamabad.

It is noteworthy that both sides are making progress in their efforts to reach an agreement. A U.S. official disclosed that contacts between the U.S. and Iran are ongoing, and progress is being made towards reaching an agreement.

Additionally, according to informed sources, the U.S. and Iran may extend the existing ceasefire deadline by another two weeks based on the progress of communication in the coming days, to allow more time for subsequent negotiations.

Looking back at the last round of negotiations, the talks in Islamabad between the U.S. and Iran concluded on April 12, but no agreement was reached. The Iranian side indicated that the negotiations were conducted in an atmosphere of "distrust and suspicion," with differences existing on two or three important issues.

The U.S. side stated that it had very clearly outlined its "red lines," but the Iranian side did not accept the U.S. conditions. This background makes the upcoming second round of talks particularly significant.

#美伊第二轮谈判