๐จ The verdict on Trump's tariffs is expected tomorrow, and it's time to take stock of the situation!
๐บ๐ธ First, it's essential to understand what an eventual cancellation of Trump's tariffs really means. What the court could strike down is not tariffs in general, but the legal basis used to impose them.
โก๏ธ Next, we must stop the idea that the Trump administration would be stuck if a legal path collapses. The United States has an extremely broad range of trade tools because, for decades, Congress has delegated significant power to the president on trade matters, especially when invoking emergency, national security, or external imbalances. In practice, even if one law falls, another door remains open.
1๏ธโฃ First, there are temporary tools, such as Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. While not very elegant from a legal standpoint, it's fast: up to 15% tariffs for up to 150 days to respond to external imbalances. Such mechanisms are ideal for maintaining political and economic pressure while preparing a more solid framework.
2๏ธโฃ Then there's Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which Trump has already used for steel and aluminum and threatened to apply to automobiles. Here, we enter the realm of national security: U.S. courts grant the executive substantial discretion in this area. It's legally much more robust and politically highly defensible, especially in an election context. This is clearly the most powerful and credible tool.
3๏ธโฃ Finally, there are older and more radical provisions, such as Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which allows tariffs as high as 50% in cases of trade discrimination against the United States. It's heavy-handed, conflict-prone, and risky in terms of retaliationโbut it exists.
LATEST NEWS: ๐บ๐ธ The criminal investigation targeting Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell could delay interest rate cuts, according to Bank of America.
Treasury Secretary Kevin Bessent also expressed concern, describing the situation as "chaos" potentially harmful to financial markets. โ Axios
๐น๐ญ UPDATE: Thailand strengthens its monitoring as the central bank signals activity of foreign-linked stablecoins as part of its 'grey money' surveillance.