45% probability: CPI will rise by consensus estimate of 0.2%. In this scenario, the S&P 500 would rise 0.25% to 0.5%.
25% probability: CPI will increase 0.1% to 0.2%. In this scenario, the S&P 500 would rise 1% to 1.5%.
22.5% probability: CPI will increase 0.2% to 0.4%. In this scenario, the S&P 500 would fall 1% to 1.5%.
5% probability: CPI will rise 0.4% or more. In this scenario, the S&P 500 would fall 1.75% to 2%.
2.5% probability: CPI will fall below 0.1%. In this scenario, the S&P 500 would rise 1.5% to 2%.
Overall, JPMorgan estimates that the S&P 500 will rise if the CPI rises as expected or falls below expectations. However, if the CPI rises higher than expected, the S&P 500 will fall
25% probability: CPI will increase 0.1% to 0.2%. In this scenario, the S&P 500 would rise 1% to 1.5%.
22.5% probability: CPI will increase 0.2% to 0.4%. In this scenario, the S&P 500 would fall 1% to 1.5%.
5% probability: CPI will rise 0.4% or more. In this scenario, the S&P 500 would fall 1.75% to 2%.
2.5% probability: CPI will fall below 0.1%. In this scenario, the S&P 500 would rise 1.5% to 2%.
Overall, JPMorgan estimates that the S&P 500 will rise if the CPI rises as expected or falls below expectations. However, if the CPI rises higher than expected, the S&P 500 will fall