This round of bear market from 2021 to 2023 has entered the second half. Now is undoubtedly a critical year. No matter how much the previous bull market has risen, we should now focus on the layout of the next bull market. No one likes a bear market, but likes the low prices brought by a bear market.
Only in a bear market can you find opportunities to gain excess wealth growth. Prices fluctuate around value, and the characteristic of a bear market is that the prices of many high-quality investment products are significantly lower than their values.
According to rough data research, at the peak of the last bull market, the total market value of cryptocurrencies was close to 2.9 trillion, and the total market value of the top 100 currencies accounted for about 95% of the total market value, or 2.75 trillion.
Among the top 100 currencies, excluding the top 20 by market capitalization (accounting for about 90% of the market capitalization), the remaining 21-100 account for about 2.75*0.1=275 billion. The average market capitalization is about 275 billion/80=3.4 billion. The market capitalization of the top 50 currencies is more than 4 billion, and the market capitalization of the 100th is close to 1 billion.
According to the analysis of previous Bitcoin price patterns, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will break 100,000 in the next bull market. At this time, the total market value of the crypto market will be no less than 4.25 trillion. The top 100 currencies will start at around 1.5 billion, and the market value of the top 50 currencies will be around 6 billion.
If the price of Bitcoin exceeds 150,000, the market value of the 100th largest company will be approximately 2.25 billion, and the market value of the 50th largest company will be approximately 9 billion.
Taking this as a reference, we can roughly judge the return rate of the coins currently chosen to be held for a long time in the bull market based on the token unlocking situation.
Criteria for Screening 100x Coins
1. Good fundamentals, belonging to the hot sector
ARB, ZK, L2, decentralized derivatives exchange, AI, Metaverse and game Gamifi, NFT, new public chain sector, etc...
2. Have good narrative skills and ecological sustainable development
Positive cycle, great potential for growth, good earning ability, preferably a leader in the sector.
If you are not a leader but have a comparable or even better ecology, financing amount, technology, team, investors, narrative, earnings and other capabilities than the leader.
3. Market value is less than 200 million U, preferably less than 100 million U
This can be combined with the last point. If the project is good but the market value exceeds the limit by a lot, you can wait for the price to fall back to meet the conditions before entering.
If it increases a hundred times, the market value will be 10-20 billion.
If the market value is already over 1 billion, and it increases 100 times, the possibility of the market value exceeding 100 billion is relatively low.
4. Preferably a new project from October 2021 to 2023
We have not experienced a bull market yet, there is no trapped shares above, there is no pressure to pull up the price, and there is no upper limit to the price.
5. Investment from well-known large institutions
Such as A16z, DCG, Pantera capital, Coinbase Ventures, Blockchain Capital, Binance Labs/Capital, Multicoin capital, etc., especially Binance’s investment in IEO.
6. The price should not exceed 5 times the cost price of the institution
The closer to the cost price of institutions or dealers, the better, and it is best to break even. You have to believe that dealers and institutions are not willing to only take 10 times in the bull market.
7. Strong moat and no strong competitors
Compared with peers, it has a clear leading advantage and is irreplaceable, and monopoly is the best. Otherwise, it may be replaced and surpassed by better projects at any time.
8. The circulation rate should be above 30%
If the circulation is too small, the selling pressure will be high in the later stage. It is better not to issue tokens indefinitely, and it is better if there is a deflation mechanism for destruction.
9. The daily and weekly levels have been trading sideways for a long time at the bottom, and the bottom has been trading sideways for a long time with shrinking volume and then continuously rising with huge volume.
There is no such requirement for newly launched projects
10. The bottom should not rise more than 2-3 times
If it exceeds, you can wait until it callbacks to the range that meets the conditions before getting on the train. If you can't wait, forget it.
If you get on board after the price has increased 10 times, when others have increased 100 times, you have only increased 10 times. Good coins must also have a good price.
This is the final entry condition. Make sure other conditions are met before discussing the better entry price.
Announcement of potential currencies
These coins are all in my hoarding list, and I only buy and never sell before the bull market bubble. (This is not an investment advice, please refer to it with caution)
RDNT
RDNT focuses on the full-chain currency market for lending. It is the native lending market project on Arb and is definitely the leader in arb lending. It is based on the underlying cross-chain protocol of LayerZero, and improves the efficiency of DeFi asset utilization through full-chain and cross-chain lending.
1. The benefits of Cancun upgrade.
2. With a strong backing, Rdnt is one of the biggest beneficiaries of ARB. Apart from Rdnt, no other money market has listed ARB yet, so a continuous inflow of funds is expected.
3. The benefits are obvious. From the 90-day revenue, Radiant has surpassed Aave, Comp and even Sol. It is one of the fastest growing protocols in the field.
4. The community is very active, and the average approval rate of DAO governance proposals is very high.
DYDX
Section: Dex Defi, the founder was originally a Coinbase software engineer.
Dydx is a decentralized perpetual contract exchange and a leading derivatives product. It has been deployed on the L2 network, uses L2 expansion technology, and provides L1 spot, leverage, and lending services.
1. Dydx utilizes a hybrid infrastructure model, primarily non-custodial, on-chain settlement and an off-chain low-latency matching engine with an order book.
2. Two major types of derivatives models: one is the order book model represented by DYDX, and the other is the liquidity pool model represented by GMX.
3. Derivatives trading agreements, including perpetual contract trading agreements, option trading agreements, synthetic asset trading agreements, etc. Perpetual contract trading agreements have the largest volume, and representative projects of perpetual contract trading agreements include dYdX and GMX.
4. The biggest feature of decentralized exchanges is security. The data is open and transparent. All transactions and data can be queried on the chain, avoiding the black box operations of centralized exchanges.
GAL
Web3 track has been listed on three major exchanges, including Binance, Coinbase, and OKEx.
1.Multicoin Capital and Dragonfly Capital jointly led the investment, and Coinbase and Binance participated in the investment.
2. It has a large user base, more than 60 million users, millions of Twitter followers, and updates project status every day, which shows that it is doing something.
3. The market value is low and the chips are concentrated, with 68% still in the market. The main players will make the market only when they have enough chips. So we are talking about the market effect brought by the bull market.
The bull market will break out, and it must be those that have experienced the entire bear market and have extremely concentrated chips.
LIT
Lit is a multi-network decentralized identity aggregation protocol with a decentralized identity (DID) indexing mechanism and a Substrate-based credit calculation network to help decentralized identity aggregation, verification and credit calculation.
Sections: web3, Metaverse, Polkadot Ecosystem
Binance and Coinbase will be launched in 2021
LINA
Lina is a decentralized lending platform based on blockchain technology. Lina's goal is to provide users with fast, convenient and low-cost lending services by leveraging the transparency and security of blockchain.
1. Binance IEO
2. Launched in March 2021, it has experienced a long bear market
3. Low market value: Ranked 213, down 95% from the highest price of 0.23u on the first day of listing
That’s all for today’s sharing. Follow me, I will continue to output value and look for coins with 10-100 times the potential to be launched in the past and in the future!