Most Wall Street banks expect the Fed to adopt a "hawkish pause" policy | Binance Morning News (June 13)

● Most Wall Street banks expect the Fed to adopt a "hawkish pause" policy
Most of Wall Street's big banks expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this week while maintaining a hawkish stance due to a strong job market and rising inflation. Several economists said the meeting will swing between "skipping" and "raising interest rates", and most banks expect the Fed to prepare the market for a rate hike in July. Money markets currently expect a more than 70% chance of a pause in rate hikes this month, while expectations of a rate cut have been postponed until next year. (Jinshi)
● JPMorgan Chase: The SEC’s enforcement actions make it more urgent for lawmakers to propose a crypto regulatory framework this year
JPMorgan said in a research report that the U.S. SEC's lawsuit against Binance and Coinbase highlights the need for U.S. lawmakers to come up with a comprehensive framework on how to regulate the cryptocurrency industry and the corresponding responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC.
JPMorgan said the moves "make it more urgent for U.S. lawmakers to come up with a comprehensive regulatory framework this year." Until then, crypto activity is likely to continue to shift outside the U.S. and to decentralized entities.
The report states that the U.S. SEC believes that most cryptocurrencies should be classified as securities, and therefore, most cryptocurrency companies and transactions should fall within its regulatory scope and comply with the regulatory framework currently applicable to other securities. If the U.S. SEC’s position is confirmed by lawmakers, Coinbase, Binance.US and other U.S. exchanges will have to register as brokers and most cryptocurrencies will be considered securities.
The report says that while this may be more "burdensome and costly" for the industry, it will have some positive effects as crypto markets will be properly regulated and provide more transparency and investor protection. (CoinDesk)
● US lawmakers submit SEC restructuring bill, calling for dismissal of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler
U.S. House of Representatives member Warren Davidson tweeted that he and U.S. House Majority Representative Tom Emmer have submitted a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Reorganization Act to reorganize the SEC, and called for the dismissal of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler. "U.S. capital markets must be protected from influence, including from the current chairman. It's time for real reform and the dismissal of Gary Gensler."
● Currently, 67 cryptocurrencies have been listed as securities by the US SEC, with a total market value of over US$100 billion
According to statistics, after the lawsuit against Binance and Coinbase, the total number of cryptocurrencies marked as securities by the US SEC has now reached 67.
Specifically, in the case against Binance, the SEC classified 10 cryptocurrencies as securities, while in the lawsuit against Coinbase, it classified 13 cryptocurrencies as securities. The total market value of the cryptocurrency projects involved exceeds $100 billion, accounting for about 10% of the total cryptocurrency market value of $1.09 trillion. (Cointelegraph)
● CFTC: Precedent-setting legal victory in Ooki DAO lawsuit
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) says it has achieved a precedent-setting legal victory in the Ooki DAO lawsuit. According to the CFTC, the decentralized autonomous organization has received a default judgment with the court holding that Ooki DAO was a "person" under the Commodity Exchange Act. The announcement has been described as precedent-setting as it is the first time a court has held The DAO liable for violations of law as a person.
Ooki DAO must pay a civil penalty of $643,542 and be permanently banned from trading and any third-party hosting and domain services. The site must be shut down.
Ian McGinley, director of the CFTC’s Division of Enforcement, said the decision “should serve as a wake-up call to anyone who thinks they can circumvent the law by adopting a DAO structure, intending to insulate themselves from enforcement and ultimately put the public at risk.”
● Chan Ho-lim: The Hong Kong government actively participates in the virtual asset value chain and aims to launch a stablecoin regulatory framework by the end of next year
Chan Ho-lim, deputy secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury of the Hong Kong government, said that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has conducted public consultation on the launch of stablecoins and will gradually establish a regulatory framework in the future, with the goal of launching it before the end of next year. He also said that the Hong Kong government actively participates in the virtual asset value chain and successfully issued tokenized green bonds earlier this year. It will continue to support the development of the industry in the future and welcomes the industry and talents to come to Hong Kong.
When delivering a speech at an event, Chan Ho-lim said that the government is focusing on the development of Internet 3.0 and had earlier issued a policy declaration on the development of virtual assets, adopting the principle of "same business, same risks, same rules" for supervision. He believed that this would allow the industry to develop steadily in Hong Kong while also protecting investors and ensuring that anti-money laundering and other rules meet international standards.
Chen Haolian also mentioned that in the past five years, the number of Hong Kong financial technology companies has increased exponentially, and now has accumulated more than 800 companies, providing diversified services, including virtual banking, virtual insurance, virtual asset trading, etc. (Zhitong Finance)
● CoinShares: Last week, digital asset investment products had a net outflow of $88 million, marking the eighth consecutive week of capital outflow
According to CoinShares weekly data, digital asset investment products had a net outflow of $88 million last week, marking the eighth consecutive week of capital outflows, with a total outflow of $417 million in the past eight weeks. Among them, the total outflow of Bitcoin was $51.6 million, and the total outflow in these eight weeks was $254 million, accounting for 1.2% of the total assets under management (AuM). Ethereum had an outflow of $35.6 million, which was the largest single-week outflow since the merger in September last year.
● Bloomberg survey: Most respondents believe inflation will return to 2% within two years
According to a Bloomberg Market Live Pulse survey of professional and retail investors, 90% of 288 respondents believe that companies in the United States and Europe have been continuously raising the prices of physical products since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020. As potential causes of inflation, a surge in corporate price tags and high profit margins have raised concerns. Most survey participants agreed that tight monetary policy is an appropriate response to profit-driven price increases. While some have proposed alternative solutions, such as using corporate tax rates to crack down on price gouging and strengthening antitrust regulations, most respondents expect profit margins to fall back to pre-epidemic levels. Most also believe that so-called "greed inflation," in which companies raise their own prices more than necessary, is unlikely to lead to lasting sticky inflation, and expect inflation to return to 2% within the next two years. (Bloomberg)
● Multiple Reddit communities were set to private or read-only mode between June 12 and 14
Multiple Reddit communities, including the cryptocurrency community, have unanimously decided to move to private or read-only mode between June 12 and June 14 in protest of Reddit's upcoming new policy blocking the use of third-party applications. In April, Reddit announced plans to modify the way users interact with the Reddit Data API. The Reddit Data API, which has been available for seven years, enables developers to create tools and utilities for moderation and other activities.
Most subreddits oppose Reddit's new policy because Reddit's intention to build local moderator tools directly affects the community's ability to create and use third-party tools, which are mainly used to moderate content and interactions. (Cointelegraph)
● OpenAI CEO said that "China has the best AI talent in the world" and called on China and the United States to cooperate in addressing AI risks
Last Saturday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman participated in a virtual speech at a well-attended AI conference held in Beijing, in which he emphasized the importance of American and Chinese researchers collaborating to reduce the risks of AI systems.
"China has some of the best AI talent in the world, so I really hope that Chinese AI researchers can make great contributions in this area," Altman said. (Wall Street Journal)
● Meta internal survey: Only 26% of employees have confidence in Mark Zuckerberg and company leadership
An internal Meta survey conducted between April 26 and May 10 showed that only 26% of employees had confidence in CEO Mark Zuckerberg and the company's leadership, according to people familiar with the matter. The figure was down 5 percentage points from October last year, indicating low morale among Meta employees.
In the past few months, Meta has gone through multiple rounds of layoffs, spending cuts and strategic adjustments, which Zuckerberg called a plan for the "year of efficiency." In addition, only 43% of employees who participated in the internal survey said they felt valued, compared with 58% in October last year. Since November last year, Meta announced the elimination of 11,000 jobs, about 13% of the total number of employees, and froze hiring and cut spending. In March of this year, another 10,000 employees were affected by the second round of layoffs. These changes have made many employees feel uneasy and dissatisfied. After the second round of layoffs, an employee posted on the internal forum, "You have shattered the morale and confidence of many high performers in the leadership. Why should we stay at Meta?" Despite the low internal sentiment, Wall Street remains optimistic about Meta, and the company's stock price has risen 112% this year. Some analysts believe that Meta's investment in artificial intelligence is beginning to pay off, attracting more advertisers to use its artificial intelligence marketing tools.
However, according to the New York Times, the company has also slowed its investment in the Metaverse, which has caused some employees to question Zuckerberg's leadership. A Meta spokesperson denied this and quoted Zuckerberg on a recent earnings call: "In addition to artificial intelligence, the other major technology wave we are focusing on is the Metaverse. There is a saying that we are giving up the vision of focusing on the Metaverse, so I want to make it clear that this is inaccurate. We have invested many years in artificial intelligence and the Metaverse, and will continue to do so." (Washington Post)
● a16z to open office in London
a16z announced that it will open an a16z office in London. The new office is scheduled to open later this year and will be led by general partner Sriram Krishnan, who is committed to developing the cryptocurrency and entrepreneurial ecosystem in the UK and Europe. At the same time, a16z also plans to hold the next Crypto Starup School in London in the spring of 2024. The opening of the office in London was supported by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who expressed his "determination to unlock opportunities for this technology and turn the UK into the world's Web3 center." At the same time, a16z will continue to make significant investments in the United States and remain committed to working with U.S. policymakers and regulators to make their regulation of cryptocurrency startups clearer. (Foresight News)