Whether good or bad, the non-agricultural data is bad data. Today is still a weekend, so the real fermentation of emotions is likely to be next Monday. However, the CPI data for March will be released on Tuesday. I think even if the market is emotional, it is likely to explode on Tuesday. This will extend the price trend of BTC and ETH, especially the Shanghai upgrade sentiment of ETH. However, it is still easy to see sharp rises and falls on weekends.

Bitcoin fundamentals strengthen

Bitcoin closes above 200-week moving average

Bitcoin has gained despite bank runs and a regulatory crackdown, closing above its 200-week moving average ($25,400) for two consecutive weeks, the first time since August 2022.

This marks the longest period in history when Bitcoin has fallen below a key support line

Bitcoin holdings hit new high in one year

Since the beginning of the bear market in 2022, the number of one-year holders has reached a new high. The number of holdings that have only seen action 1 year or more ago reached an all-time high in March, approaching 70% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin

The supply held since the end of March coincides with the period during which market participants have held Bitcoin since the 2022 bear market. This suggests that there is a long-term investment group focused on holding Bitcoin.

Short-term holders realize profits, and a sustained bull market may come

The ratio of profitable short-term holders (STH) to losing short-term holders has remained above 1, and during March, the ratio exceeded 300 to 1 twice. According to our research, a sustained ratio above 1 usually indicates the arrival of a bull market.

Short-term holders are holders who have bought or sold tokens in the past 155 days. Based on 155 days, the longer the holding period, the greater the probability that these tokens will be sold.

The year has just begun and there is still uncertainty about where the market will go - a lot can change. However, now is the time to start paying attention to these areas, and cryptocurrencies are about to become interesting again.

The Hong Kong web3 carnival is approaching, let’s just chat and don’t take it too seriously

I was talking to a friend about Hong Kong before, and he said it was just speculation by hot money in the market. We all know that virtual currency transactions are prohibited in China. Hong Kong is a special administrative region that returned to China in 1997.

It is also planned to implement a licensing system for virtual asset service providers on June 1 this year, as well as a series of operations by local Hong Kong projects. So is it possible that Hong Kong will take action only after authorization? If it cannot be blocked, then it will be unblocked. I don’t understand politics, but I know that those who make money by speculating in stocks are all speculating in policy stocks. If the above conjecture is true, the narrative of the Hong Kong sector may be more sustainable, and it also gives people the opportunity to make money by speculating in policy coins.

Let’s talk about the public chain sector in detail

The story of the public chain is endless. After all, it is the underlying logic of the circle, and there is a lot of room for imagination. The following are worthy of attention:

Ethereum: Needless to say, the king

Rising star in the cryptocurrency circle: APT, the recent darling of the public chain and the eldest son of Binance, has a relatively complete story. It has risen 6 times from the bottom price. If APT can create the myth of a ten-fold coin, that is, rise to more than 30u, it will be like blowing the charge for our entire circle, and each of us will benefit from it.

Matic: A relatively stable public chain with relatively stable prices. I personally think it can keep up with the market rhythm.

ATOM: Astro Boy's climax has passed. Due to model limitations, he can't keep up with the rhythm. Capital doesn't seem to like him very much. We can only look forward to his return as a king.

SUI: I heard that it will be listed on Coinlist for public offering in May, and the mainnet will be launched in the second quarter, which is still a major narrative!

Halving Currency Section:

Everyone knows this, so I won’t go into details. My suggestion is to run ahead one month before the halving. The currencies include ltc, zec, dash, etc.

Thank you for reading, see you next time!