An $8.8 billion unrealized loss on 850,364 bitcoins: Saylor’s position has fallen below its cost basis—can you still hold on to your MSTR?

850,364 bitcoins, a cost basis of $75,456, and an unrealized loss of $8.8 billion: in just seven days, Saylor’s position went from barely above water to deep underwater.
#Crypto and U.S. stocks are both falling—what will drive the next rebound?
Today, let’s skip the price moves and look at the books: just how much is the world’s largest publicly listed Bitcoin treasury losing, and what happens if those losses keep growing?
I. Holdings ledger: 850,000 coins, with a cost basis of $64.16 billion
The latest 8-K from Saylor’s Strategy was filed on November 9 (SEC filing): from November 2 to 8, it bought another 1,036 coins for $81.9 million, at an average price of $79,012.
With this purchase, total holdings now stand at 850,364 bitcoins, at a total cost of $64.16 billion and an average price of $75,456 per bitcoin—more than 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply of 21 million.
Last week, he also did two other things: sold about 2.05 million MSTR shares to raise $283.8 million, using $81.9 million to buy Bitcoin and $188.3 million to repurchase STRC preferred shares; he also has $4.9 billion in dollar assets, including $146.2 million in cash available for immediate use.
In other words, Saylor was still buying last week, and he funded those Bitcoin purchases by selling shares—that’s the flywheel behind his “issue shares to buy Bitcoin” strategy.
2. The unrealized loss tally: from $550 million to $8.8 billion in just one week
On November 9, the day the filing was submitted, Bitcoin was still around $74,800. The holdings were only slightly below their cost basis, with unrealized losses of about $550 million.
By 11:28 this morning (BTC/USDT at $65,048 on Binance), the 850,364 bitcoins were worth about $55.3 billion, with unrealized losses of about $8.85 billion.
When Bitcoin briefly plunged to a low of $62,006 early this morning, the holdings were worth just $52.7 billion, and unrealized losses had briefly widened to about $11.4 billion.
In seven days, unrealized losses multiplied 16-fold. The $75,456 cost basis has now become a ceiling overhead, and Bitcoin needs to rise 16% to break even.
3. The stock price tally: MSTR fell 13.4% in a week, leaving it with a market cap of just $48.3 billion
MSTR closed at $111.62 last Friday, down 2.44% for the day, 13.43% for the week, 26.22% for the month, 26.54% year to date, and 50.30% over the past year.
Its 52-week high was $226; it’s now worth half that. Its market cap is about $48.3 billion.
A rough comparison of Friday’s closing market cap with the value of its Bitcoin holdings this morning puts mNAV at about 0.87—in other words, the market is valuing the company at 13% less than the Bitcoin it holds.
This is the line we wrote about on November 12: when mNAV falls below 1, the flywheel can no longer turn—issuing shares to buy Bitcoin becomes increasingly costly, and the more it costs, the fewer buyers there are.
4. The comparison: peers and ETFs are also underwater
Saylor isn’t the only one taking losses this cycle.
ETH treasury peer Bitmine holds 6.07 million ETH, with a cost basis of about $3,380 and a current price of about $1,770—an unrealized loss of nearly half (we ran the numbers on November 13).
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $185 million on November 13, marking a seventh consecutive trading day of outflows and bringing the seven-day total to $1.907 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $144 million flow out.
Saylor’s holdings are simply the largest and most visible position among institutions’ unrealized losses this cycle.
5. My take
Saylor won’t sell at this level. His strategy has never depended on Bitcoin’s price rising on its own; it relies on the cycle of “Bitcoin price rises → stock price rises → issue shares → buy more Bitcoin.” The problem now is that the stock is cheaper than the Bitcoin, making it more expensive to issue shares.
I’d only change my view based on two things: First, can Bitcoin reclaim its $75,456 cost basis? If it does, the unrealized losses disappear and the flywheel’s numbers start working again. Second, does the next 8-K on Monday show more purchases, and how much? If buying doesn’t slow, it means the financing channel is still open.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin falls below today’s low of $62,000 again, or if $2.8 billion in passive selling hits after MSCI’s exclusion takes effect on November 30, MSTR’s stock will have to search for a lower bottom, and the flywheel will have to stop for a breather.
My position is simple: Saylor’s strategy isn’t a bet on whether Bitcoin will rise; it’s a bet on whether the market is still willing to pay a premium for his Bitcoin. Right now, the answer is: it isn’t.
Keep an eye on three things next:
1. Monday, November 16—Strategy’s weekly 8-K: how many bitcoins it bought last week, whether it’s still buying, and whether the amount is shrinking;
2. November 30—MSCI’s exclusion takes effect: how much of the $2.8 billion in passive selling estimated by JPMorgan will actually materialize;
3. The $75,456 cost basis and the $62,000 low: getting back above the cost basis wipes out the unrealized losses; if it falls below $62,000, watch for the $60,000 psychological level.
Whichever of these three things happens first, I’ll follow up right away and update the numbers. Follow me so you don’t miss the next chapter of this story.
Saylor’s “issue shares to buy Bitcoin” strategy: do you see it as a conviction to keep buying as the price falls, or a vicious cycle that gets harder to sustain the further it falls?
—Baobao