#金价年内暴跌
The gold price’s sharp drop this year is fundamentally a case of interest-rate logic crushing the safe-haven narrative. At the start of the year, gold surged to $5,598; now it has plunged as low as $3,852, a pullback of over 30%. Gold jewelry prices have fallen by more than 500 yuan per gram. There’s one core reason: the Fed isn’t cutting rates anymore and may even raise them. U.S. inflation just won’t come down, and rising oil prices have reinforced expectations that inflation will remain stubborn. The market has switched straight from “betting on rate cuts” to “bracing for rate hikes.” Gold pays no interest, so as Treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold starts to sting. And with the dollar strengthening too, gold is getting hit from both sides.
In the past, gold would jump whenever fighting broke out in the Middle East. The old saying that “when the cannons roar, gold is worth its weight in gold” no longer holds. Now, war pushes up oil prices, oil prices fuel inflation, inflation forces central banks to tighten, and tightening hammers gold. A safe-haven asset has somehow turned into a risk asset. On top of that, gold ETFs have continued to see outflows, while AI tech stocks have pulled away some investment money. Investors who bought near the highs at the start of the year are also taking profits. If you’re looking to buy the dip in the short term, trade according to the buy and sell signals in Chan Theory’s market structure. The main thing is that interest rates still haven’t let up.
$XAUT
The gold price’s sharp drop this year is fundamentally a case of interest-rate logic crushing the safe-haven narrative. At the start of the year, gold surged to $5,598; now it has plunged as low as $3,852, a pullback of over 30%. Gold jewelry prices have fallen by more than 500 yuan per gram. There’s one core reason: the Fed isn’t cutting rates anymore and may even raise them. U.S. inflation just won’t come down, and rising oil prices have reinforced expectations that inflation will remain stubborn. The market has switched straight from “betting on rate cuts” to “bracing for rate hikes.” Gold pays no interest, so as Treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold starts to sting. And with the dollar strengthening too, gold is getting hit from both sides.
In the past, gold would jump whenever fighting broke out in the Middle East. The old saying that “when the cannons roar, gold is worth its weight in gold” no longer holds. Now, war pushes up oil prices, oil prices fuel inflation, inflation forces central banks to tighten, and tightening hammers gold. A safe-haven asset has somehow turned into a risk asset. On top of that, gold ETFs have continued to see outflows, while AI tech stocks have pulled away some investment money. Investors who bought near the highs at the start of the year are also taking profits. If you’re looking to buy the dip in the short term, trade according to the buy and sell signals in Chan Theory’s market structure. The main thing is that interest rates still haven’t let up.
$XAUT