Since starting Chat Room Group 3 in October, I’ve publicly shared dozens of trading strategies over time. Only two of them actually hit their stop losses. One was Ethereum: the market reversed immediately after the stop loss, so I adjusted my outlook and stayed bearish all the way down from around 2,500. The other was a bottom-fishing trade on Intel, where I lost 10% of the position. After the stop loss, I didn’t keep fighting the trade. I immediately switched gears and went short on Bitcoin near 79,400 and Ethereum near 2,388. The market continued in the expected direction afterward. My point is that all the strategies are public: you can see the ones that worked, and I don’t hide the ones that didn’t.

But lately, I really haven't felt like livestreaming. Maybe I'm going through a period of burnout. Spending so much time every day explaining market movements and analyzing the logic behind them, while constantly trying to correct ingrained trading habits, can wear you down over time. I've noticed that many of the guys have developed a habitual bullish mindset because of the market. When prices rise, they think they'll keep rising; when prices fall, they think they've fallen enough and must rebound. It’s as if going long is the only normal thing to do, while shorting has become almost impossible to accept. But the market has never said you can only go long. I've always believed that when you trade, you should make money only within the limits of your knowledge. Don't try to trade every market move, and don't assume you can figure out every market.

To put it bluntly, you haven't even figured out Bitcoin yet, and you're already thinking about becoming a genius U.S. stock trader. 😂 How many crypto influencers can actually make sense of the U.S. stock market? I know I don't have that ability. There’s so much to research when trading U.S. stocks: fundamentals, earnings reports, news, policy, industry developments, market demand—even the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy can affect stock prices. You can’t understand all of that just by reading a couple of news articles. Do you really have enough time and energy to study it? Can you really get to grips with all those variables? Without your own research framework, what people call buying the dip or chasing a rally is often just gambling on a fifty-fifty outcome. By comparison, I think Bitcoin’s trading logic is relatively straightforward. Over the long term, supply and demand remain important factors affecting its price. The key things to watch are ETF fund flows, changes in large institutions’ holdings, movements of funds on exchanges, and shifts in market leverage and liquidity. Of course, that doesn't mean Bitcoin is simple. It just has a relatively clear analytical framework that you can keep tracking. Getting the overall direction right, managing your position size, and setting reasonable stop-losses are far more important than trying to guess the top and bottom every day.

Why have I been leaning bearish lately?

I've already explained my reasoning repeatedly in previous articles and livestreams:

1. The impact of the tech stock sell-off on risk assets.

2. Potential selling pressure resulting from the crypto theft.

3. Fund flows on exchanges and changes in institutional investment.

4. The impact on liquidity of changes in monetary policy and interest rates in Japan and the United States.

5. There isn't enough new money coming into the market overall, and competition for existing funds is becoming increasingly obvious. Taken together, these factors mean I don't currently see clear conditions that would support a sustained rally. The latest volatility in tech stocks has put considerable pressure on many crypto market participants in particular. If no new money enters the market and existing funds keep getting depleted, it will be difficult to sustain a healthy rally simply through trading among existing participants.

Of course, I'm not saying the market absolutely can't rise. The market can always surprise us. The biggest mistake in trading is treating your own opinion as the market's answer. You can be bullish or bearish, or even bet on a rebound at a certain level, but you need to think in advance: what will you do if you're wrong? Trading isn't about who can predict the market more accurately; it's about who loses less when their judgment is wrong.

Lastly, a word about ZEC.

ZEC has now posted eight consecutive daily candlesticks in the red. I've chosen to try for a short-term rebound near 900, based on the TD Sequential 9 signal.

But this is just a short-term trade attempt; it doesn't mean I think the bottom is in. If I enter around 900 and a rebound occurs, I'll manage the position in stages according to my short-term trading plan. If it keeps falling and breaks below 800 decisively, I'll cut my losses and exit as planned rather than fight the market.

I won't assume it's bound to rebound just because it's fallen several days in a row, and I won't force myself to believe my judgment is right just because I've entered a position. First, thoroughly study the markets you know; build a trading system of your own; and manage your risk. Make money within the limits of your knowledge, and trade markets you understand. Leave the rest to the market.