《PPI Sends Mixed Signals, ETF Outflows Show the Bleeding Hasn't Stopped》
$BTC At noon, around $67,100, down about 3.1% in 24 hours. The $70,000 level has been lost for a second day. The Fear & Greed Index is at 20: extreme fear.
Of the three questions I left in last night's post, two have answers this morning.
First, PPI: October rose 0.3% month over month, slightly below the expected 0.4%, which looks somewhat cool. But it was up 6.5% year over year, the highest since November 2022 and above September's 6.3%. Monthly cooling, yearly high—mixed signals. The probability of a December rate hike is still close to 99%, so this downturn is still about repricing, not panic.
Second, ETFs: Full data for November 12 is in—net outflows of $284 million, with IBIT alone accounting for $204 million. That's ten straight days of outflows. The “preliminary, modest net inflow of about $3.3 million” I mentioned yesterday was based on incomplete figures, before IBIT and Fidelity had reported. The bleeding hasn't stopped. I was wrong, and I own that.
The third question is still open: Can the weekly candle close back above the 200-week moving average, around $69,555? We'll see this weekend.
The broader market is down, but not every coin: $INJ +9.5% (lingering momentum after the launch of a collateralized ETF), $PEARL +8.6% (Coinbase listing roadmap). The top of the gainers list has climbed out of negative territory since yesterday. Money hasn't all left; it's just picking its spots.
My view still follows the same framework: price vs. flows. Price has broken down, but flows haven't stabilized. Anyone looking to buy the dip should wait for tomorrow's ETF data.
Risk warning: Liquidity is thinner over the weekend, so volatility may increase. This is not investment advice.
Where do you think the weekly candle will close—above or below $69,555?
No calls, just the numbers.
#比特币 #ETF #PPI
$BTC At noon, around $67,100, down about 3.1% in 24 hours. The $70,000 level has been lost for a second day. The Fear & Greed Index is at 20: extreme fear.
Of the three questions I left in last night's post, two have answers this morning.
First, PPI: October rose 0.3% month over month, slightly below the expected 0.4%, which looks somewhat cool. But it was up 6.5% year over year, the highest since November 2022 and above September's 6.3%. Monthly cooling, yearly high—mixed signals. The probability of a December rate hike is still close to 99%, so this downturn is still about repricing, not panic.
Second, ETFs: Full data for November 12 is in—net outflows of $284 million, with IBIT alone accounting for $204 million. That's ten straight days of outflows. The “preliminary, modest net inflow of about $3.3 million” I mentioned yesterday was based on incomplete figures, before IBIT and Fidelity had reported. The bleeding hasn't stopped. I was wrong, and I own that.
The third question is still open: Can the weekly candle close back above the 200-week moving average, around $69,555? We'll see this weekend.
The broader market is down, but not every coin: $INJ +9.5% (lingering momentum after the launch of a collateralized ETF), $PEARL +8.6% (Coinbase listing roadmap). The top of the gainers list has climbed out of negative territory since yesterday. Money hasn't all left; it's just picking its spots.
My view still follows the same framework: price vs. flows. Price has broken down, but flows haven't stabilized. Anyone looking to buy the dip should wait for tomorrow's ETF data.
Risk warning: Liquidity is thinner over the weekend, so volatility may increase. This is not investment advice.
Where do you think the weekly candle will close—above or below $69,555?
No calls, just the numbers.
#比特币 #ETF #PPI