$BTC 200 The 200-week moving average was lost intraday. I need to walk back what I said this morning
In my post at 01:14 this morning, I said the 200-week moving average had held.
I have to admit it now: price has broken below it intraday.
The low was 66,915, and the current price is 67,662. The line is around 67,900, and price is still below it.
This is the first time price has tested this line since August 19—11 weeks.
Since 2015, every bear-market bottom has formed around here. Whether we can afford to lose it will be decided by the weekly close on Sunday.
An intraday break doesn’t count; only a close below does.
If price can’t reclaim it, 65,000 is the next level to watch.
Below that, Keith Alan of Material Indicators made one point: if the weekly RSI falls below 41.5, we’ll have to start thinking about 57,700.
That’s not my call—I’m just putting it out there.
My approach hasn’t changed: no dip-buying, no chasing shorts.
Wait for Sunday’s close. If price reclaims 67,900, then we’ll see. If not, keep waiting to see how it reacts at 65,000.
The difficulty adjustment hasn’t happened yet. It’s estimated at -8.8%, and blocks are coming in slowly. It’ll probably happen around noon, so anyone hoping it’ll save the market can stop holding their breath.
$856 million was liquidated in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 90%. Dip-buyers were the first to get carried out.
If you’re tempted to jump in here, first ask yourself whether you can handle one more wick down.
Personal analysis, not investment advice.
#BTC
In my post at 01:14 this morning, I said the 200-week moving average had held.
I have to admit it now: price has broken below it intraday.
The low was 66,915, and the current price is 67,662. The line is around 67,900, and price is still below it.
This is the first time price has tested this line since August 19—11 weeks.
Since 2015, every bear-market bottom has formed around here. Whether we can afford to lose it will be decided by the weekly close on Sunday.
An intraday break doesn’t count; only a close below does.
If price can’t reclaim it, 65,000 is the next level to watch.
Below that, Keith Alan of Material Indicators made one point: if the weekly RSI falls below 41.5, we’ll have to start thinking about 57,700.
That’s not my call—I’m just putting it out there.
My approach hasn’t changed: no dip-buying, no chasing shorts.
Wait for Sunday’s close. If price reclaims 67,900, then we’ll see. If not, keep waiting to see how it reacts at 65,000.
The difficulty adjustment hasn’t happened yet. It’s estimated at -8.8%, and blocks are coming in slowly. It’ll probably happen around noon, so anyone hoping it’ll save the market can stop holding their breath.
$856 million was liquidated in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 90%. Dip-buyers were the first to get carried out.
If you’re tempted to jump in here, first ask yourself whether you can handle one more wick down.
Personal analysis, not investment advice.
#BTC
