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INFLATION NEWS WAS A LITTLE BETTER. SO WHY DID BITCOIN FALL?
On Friday the US reported how fast business prices are rising. The yearly number was 6.5%. Experts expected 6.6%, so it was a tiny bit better. But 6.5% is still the highest in almost four years.
Bitcoin jumped to about $70,000 after the news. Then it fell back to about $68,100 within two hours.
Why did it fall? Here is the chain in simple steps:
Inflation is still high. So the US central bank (the Fed) will probably raise interest rates in December. The market thinks the chance is about 89%. Higher interest rates make safe investments more attractive, so people sell risky ones like Bitcoin. Not enough new buyers are coming in. Bitcoin funds are losing money (about $300 million went out on 11 Nov), and fewer stablecoins are entering the market.
Many traders who used borrowed money were forced out. More than $900 million of Bitcoin trades were closed in one day.
What I am watching:
About $67,750. Bitcoin is just above this line. If it breaks, the next buying zone is $62,000 to $66,000. Above, $69,900 and then $73,100 are the lines to beat. 17 Nov: Nvidia results. 9 Dec: the Fed meeting.
My view right now: Bitcoin is Bearish. Gold is Neutral (near $3,890). Silver is Neutral (near $50).
I don’t claim to predict every candle. I want to understand WHY.
To the 90% of retail traders: “better than expected” does not always mean “good”. Ask: better than what? Don’t rush into a quick jump, and don’t use borrowed money when big news comes out.
Question: will Bitcoin hold $67,750, or go lower first?
Experience, not financial advice.
$BTC
#USPPIMissMayEaseBTCPressure
INFLATION NEWS WAS A LITTLE BETTER. SO WHY DID BITCOIN FALL?
On Friday the US reported how fast business prices are rising. The yearly number was 6.5%. Experts expected 6.6%, so it was a tiny bit better. But 6.5% is still the highest in almost four years.
Bitcoin jumped to about $70,000 after the news. Then it fell back to about $68,100 within two hours.
Why did it fall? Here is the chain in simple steps:
Inflation is still high. So the US central bank (the Fed) will probably raise interest rates in December. The market thinks the chance is about 89%. Higher interest rates make safe investments more attractive, so people sell risky ones like Bitcoin. Not enough new buyers are coming in. Bitcoin funds are losing money (about $300 million went out on 11 Nov), and fewer stablecoins are entering the market.
Many traders who used borrowed money were forced out. More than $900 million of Bitcoin trades were closed in one day.
What I am watching:
About $67,750. Bitcoin is just above this line. If it breaks, the next buying zone is $62,000 to $66,000. Above, $69,900 and then $73,100 are the lines to beat. 17 Nov: Nvidia results. 9 Dec: the Fed meeting.
My view right now: Bitcoin is Bearish. Gold is Neutral (near $3,890). Silver is Neutral (near $50).
I don’t claim to predict every candle. I want to understand WHY.
To the 90% of retail traders: “better than expected” does not always mean “good”. Ask: better than what? Don’t rush into a quick jump, and don’t use borrowed money when big news comes out.
Question: will Bitcoin hold $67,750, or go lower first?
Experience, not financial advice.
$BTC
#USPPIMissMayEaseBTCPressure
