Opportunity Screening | Morning Session (Saturday)
No new positions opened.
BTC around 68380 (evening session around 69170). After last night’s PPI release, it briefly surged to a spot high of around 70214 (perpetuals around 70188), but failed to hold above 70k. The 20:00 four-hour candle closed near the August 20 low of around 68902 (spot close around 68899, perpetuals around 68873); the 00:00 four-hour candle only closed around 69060 / 69034, which does not count as holding above that level. The 04:00 four-hour candle subsequently closed below 68902 (spot close around 68310, low around 67865; perpetuals close around 68274, low around 67824). The near-term invalidation level (hold above 68902, then look to 70k) has been invalidated.
Bearish confirmation is still incomplete: the overnight lows were around 67865 / 67824, not yet a clean break below Friday’s spot low around 67568 / perpetuals low around 67449 (and the March weekly low around 67360) followed by continuation. Confirmation = after a failed weak rebound (failure to hold above 70k and loss of 68902, both of which have happened), a clean break below around 67568 / 67360 followed by continuation. First look below to 67k, then the March 23 weekly low around 65000, and further down to the July–August bottom around 62275–62535. Near-term invalidation = reclaim and hold above 68902, then look to 70k; the original invalidation remains a reclaim and hold above 78210, then look to 80k. The Five Elements remain deep in Water and have not yet emerged into Wood; do not chase the already-printed mid-range short, and do not try to catch the knife before around 67568 / 67360.
ETH around 1935 and SOL around 78.3 are moving almost in sync with BTC; there is no hedge wall. INJ / NEAR / TAO / HYPE are relatively stronger, but are in the middle of a rebound; do not chase. Do not chase ARB (unlock around 11/15).
U.S. equities’ Friday cash session has closed: S&P 7561.67, around −0.4%; Nasdaq 25136.27, around −0.9%; Dow 52347.55, around +0.1%. The weekly session is still one of the better weeks since August (S&P around +2.5%, Nasdaq around +2.3%, Dow around +2.1%); these are already printed, so do not chase. NVDA closed at 162.85, around −2.0% (HSBC downgraded it to Hold); tokenized shares around 161 (low around 158.5). AMD closed at 534.06, around −8.8%; AVGO closed at 347.01, around −4.8%. The “relatively stronger side versus NVDA” previously added to the hedge watchlist reversed during Friday’s cash session, so the hedge watch is canceled. Earnings remain scheduled for 11/17. Hong Kong equities closed Friday: Hang Seng Index 23637.60, around −1.55%; Hang Seng Tech Index 3813.19, around −3.0%. U.S. and Hong Kong cash markets are closed until Monday; index futures are closed for the weekend.
The main tension remains liquidity / interest rates. PPI: October headline around +0.3% (consensus +0.4%), core around +0.3% (in line with consensus), year-over-year headline around +6.5%, the highest since November 2022. A December rate hike is still priced at nearly 100% (around 91% for 25bp, around 9% for 50bp; the 50bp tail was revised down from around 13% in the later session). The U.S. Dollar Index closed Friday around 103.41, reaching a new high in nearly 19 months; the 10-year yield was around 5.135%. Spot ETFs had recorded 6 consecutive days of outflows through 11/12 (around −284 million dollars that day, with cumulative outflows of around 1.7 billion dollars over 11/5–12); official Friday flows have not yet been reported. Jensen Huang’s departure and AI sentiment remain sources of risk contagion; the risk of quantum computing breaking encryption remains secondary.
Discipline: Keep single-trade exposure within tolerable limits (reference: ≤5%); take profits promptly when planned levels are reached. This screening is for opportunity scans and risk monitoring, not trade calls.
$BTC $ETH
No new positions opened.
BTC around 68380 (evening session around 69170). After last night’s PPI release, it briefly surged to a spot high of around 70214 (perpetuals around 70188), but failed to hold above 70k. The 20:00 four-hour candle closed near the August 20 low of around 68902 (spot close around 68899, perpetuals around 68873); the 00:00 four-hour candle only closed around 69060 / 69034, which does not count as holding above that level. The 04:00 four-hour candle subsequently closed below 68902 (spot close around 68310, low around 67865; perpetuals close around 68274, low around 67824). The near-term invalidation level (hold above 68902, then look to 70k) has been invalidated.
Bearish confirmation is still incomplete: the overnight lows were around 67865 / 67824, not yet a clean break below Friday’s spot low around 67568 / perpetuals low around 67449 (and the March weekly low around 67360) followed by continuation. Confirmation = after a failed weak rebound (failure to hold above 70k and loss of 68902, both of which have happened), a clean break below around 67568 / 67360 followed by continuation. First look below to 67k, then the March 23 weekly low around 65000, and further down to the July–August bottom around 62275–62535. Near-term invalidation = reclaim and hold above 68902, then look to 70k; the original invalidation remains a reclaim and hold above 78210, then look to 80k. The Five Elements remain deep in Water and have not yet emerged into Wood; do not chase the already-printed mid-range short, and do not try to catch the knife before around 67568 / 67360.
ETH around 1935 and SOL around 78.3 are moving almost in sync with BTC; there is no hedge wall. INJ / NEAR / TAO / HYPE are relatively stronger, but are in the middle of a rebound; do not chase. Do not chase ARB (unlock around 11/15).
U.S. equities’ Friday cash session has closed: S&P 7561.67, around −0.4%; Nasdaq 25136.27, around −0.9%; Dow 52347.55, around +0.1%. The weekly session is still one of the better weeks since August (S&P around +2.5%, Nasdaq around +2.3%, Dow around +2.1%); these are already printed, so do not chase. NVDA closed at 162.85, around −2.0% (HSBC downgraded it to Hold); tokenized shares around 161 (low around 158.5). AMD closed at 534.06, around −8.8%; AVGO closed at 347.01, around −4.8%. The “relatively stronger side versus NVDA” previously added to the hedge watchlist reversed during Friday’s cash session, so the hedge watch is canceled. Earnings remain scheduled for 11/17. Hong Kong equities closed Friday: Hang Seng Index 23637.60, around −1.55%; Hang Seng Tech Index 3813.19, around −3.0%. U.S. and Hong Kong cash markets are closed until Monday; index futures are closed for the weekend.
The main tension remains liquidity / interest rates. PPI: October headline around +0.3% (consensus +0.4%), core around +0.3% (in line with consensus), year-over-year headline around +6.5%, the highest since November 2022. A December rate hike is still priced at nearly 100% (around 91% for 25bp, around 9% for 50bp; the 50bp tail was revised down from around 13% in the later session). The U.S. Dollar Index closed Friday around 103.41, reaching a new high in nearly 19 months; the 10-year yield was around 5.135%. Spot ETFs had recorded 6 consecutive days of outflows through 11/12 (around −284 million dollars that day, with cumulative outflows of around 1.7 billion dollars over 11/5–12); official Friday flows have not yet been reported. Jensen Huang’s departure and AI sentiment remain sources of risk contagion; the risk of quantum computing breaking encryption remains secondary.
Discipline: Keep single-trade exposure within tolerable limits (reference: ≤5%); take profits promptly when planned levels are reached. This screening is for opportunity scans and risk monitoring, not trade calls.
$BTC $ETH