October PPI is about 20 minutes away, and $SOXL has given back today’s high of 69.02, falling to 64.4.
The U.S. October PPI will be released at 21:30 Beijing time (08:30 U.S. Eastern time). Dow Jones consensus: headline month over month +0.4% (September actual +1.3%), core +0.3% (September +0.7%); headline year over year 6.6% (previous 6.3%), core unchanged at 5.0%. Tuesday’s CPI already came in hotter than expected (headline +0.4% vs. +0.3%, core +0.3% vs. +0.2%). Waller said this week that core CPI around 0.3% or higher could put a 50 bp hike in December on the table—and that threshold has been hit. Rate futures are pricing in a December hike at nearly 100%, with about an 84%–87% chance of 25 bp and about a 13%–16% chance of 50 bp.
Binance $SOXL perpetuals are trading around 64.41, with a 24-hour range of 58.42–69.02, up about 8.6%, and roughly 4.71 billion U in volume, ranking third by U-margined trading volume. It touched 69.02 during the 09:00 hour this morning, dropped to 62.52 at 14:00, then bounced to 66.39 at 20:00 before sliding back. Open interest fell from about 4.11 million contracts at 08:00 (notional value around 279 million U) to about 3.8 million now (around 245 million U); about 70% of accounts are long, and the funding rate has been zero for several consecutive periods.
Those who chased the morning spike at 68–69 as a tech-sector recovery have already given back nearly 7%; those who bought the dip at 62.5 saw it rise to 66, only to get knocked back down. Neither side has had an easy ride ahead of the data.
Possible scenarios (inferences, not guarantees): At least a 25 bp hike in December is already priced in, so even soft data is unlikely to bring a pause back into play. If core is ≤0.2%, the tail risk of a 50 bp hike recedes; if 62.52–63.7 holds, there may be room to retest 66.4 over the next 12–48 hours, then challenge 69.02 again. If core is ≥0.4%, adding to the hot CPI reading, a break below 62.52 that fails to recover could open the way to 59.3–58.42. If the data meets expectations, consolidation between 62.5 and 66 is more likely at first. The outlook is invalidated if the price breaks below yesterday’s low of 58.42, even if core comes in cooler.
Futures trading involves risk. Make your own independent assessment. PPI is not CPI; only the actual figures will provide confirmation.
#合约 #币安 #美股 #SOXL #PPI
The U.S. October PPI will be released at 21:30 Beijing time (08:30 U.S. Eastern time). Dow Jones consensus: headline month over month +0.4% (September actual +1.3%), core +0.3% (September +0.7%); headline year over year 6.6% (previous 6.3%), core unchanged at 5.0%. Tuesday’s CPI already came in hotter than expected (headline +0.4% vs. +0.3%, core +0.3% vs. +0.2%). Waller said this week that core CPI around 0.3% or higher could put a 50 bp hike in December on the table—and that threshold has been hit. Rate futures are pricing in a December hike at nearly 100%, with about an 84%–87% chance of 25 bp and about a 13%–16% chance of 50 bp.
Binance $SOXL perpetuals are trading around 64.41, with a 24-hour range of 58.42–69.02, up about 8.6%, and roughly 4.71 billion U in volume, ranking third by U-margined trading volume. It touched 69.02 during the 09:00 hour this morning, dropped to 62.52 at 14:00, then bounced to 66.39 at 20:00 before sliding back. Open interest fell from about 4.11 million contracts at 08:00 (notional value around 279 million U) to about 3.8 million now (around 245 million U); about 70% of accounts are long, and the funding rate has been zero for several consecutive periods.
Those who chased the morning spike at 68–69 as a tech-sector recovery have already given back nearly 7%; those who bought the dip at 62.5 saw it rise to 66, only to get knocked back down. Neither side has had an easy ride ahead of the data.
Possible scenarios (inferences, not guarantees): At least a 25 bp hike in December is already priced in, so even soft data is unlikely to bring a pause back into play. If core is ≤0.2%, the tail risk of a 50 bp hike recedes; if 62.52–63.7 holds, there may be room to retest 66.4 over the next 12–48 hours, then challenge 69.02 again. If core is ≥0.4%, adding to the hot CPI reading, a break below 62.52 that fails to recover could open the way to 59.3–58.42. If the data meets expectations, consolidation between 62.5 and 66 is more likely at first. The outlook is invalidated if the price breaks below yesterday’s low of 58.42, even if core comes in cooler.
Futures trading involves risk. Make your own independent assessment. PPI is not CPI; only the actual figures will provide confirmation.
#合约 #币安 #美股 #SOXL #PPI