Tonight, mining difficulty is expected to drop by about 7.7%. Miners can catch their breath, but don’t take it as a signal that prices are reversing.
Let’s start with the data: this difficulty adjustment is expected tonight at around 23:20 UTC (block 975,744). mempool.space estimates a 7.67% decrease, while the October 29 adjustment was +5.54%—so this round will erase the previous increase and then some. The average block time this round has been 650 seconds, well above the 600-second target, showing that hashrate has fallen faster than expected.
Hashrate has actually started to recover: the daily average rose from 825 EH/s on November 9 to about 982 EH/s. But Luxor’s hashprice was only around $31.89/PH/day on November 9, barely at breakeven—with the coin price around $71,300, miners are really feeling the pain.
Here’s the breakeven math: if the coin price stays unchanged, a 7.7% difficulty drop means roughly 8% more revenue per unit of hashrate, which could keep some rigs on the verge of shutting down alive. But don’t mistake this for bullish news: MARA and Bit Digital are still selling coins in their earnings reports and shifting toward AI hosting, so miners’ holdings remain a source of selling pressure.
My take: a difficulty drop gives miners some breathing room; it’s not a price bottom. The current price is around $71,300, and the 200-day moving average at $73,163 has been decisively broken. Unless the price climbs back above $73,163, treat any rebound as a relief rally. If $70,000 breaks, watch for $68,000. PPI is also due tonight at 21:30 (forecast: +0.4%, core +0.3%), so don’t make a large directional bet ahead of the data.
Let’s start with the data: this difficulty adjustment is expected tonight at around 23:20 UTC (block 975,744). mempool.space estimates a 7.67% decrease, while the October 29 adjustment was +5.54%—so this round will erase the previous increase and then some. The average block time this round has been 650 seconds, well above the 600-second target, showing that hashrate has fallen faster than expected.
Hashrate has actually started to recover: the daily average rose from 825 EH/s on November 9 to about 982 EH/s. But Luxor’s hashprice was only around $31.89/PH/day on November 9, barely at breakeven—with the coin price around $71,300, miners are really feeling the pain.
Here’s the breakeven math: if the coin price stays unchanged, a 7.7% difficulty drop means roughly 8% more revenue per unit of hashrate, which could keep some rigs on the verge of shutting down alive. But don’t mistake this for bullish news: MARA and Bit Digital are still selling coins in their earnings reports and shifting toward AI hosting, so miners’ holdings remain a source of selling pressure.
My take: a difficulty drop gives miners some breathing room; it’s not a price bottom. The current price is around $71,300, and the 200-day moving average at $73,163 has been decisively broken. Unless the price climbs back above $73,163, treat any rebound as a relief rally. If $70,000 breaks, watch for $68,000. PPI is also due tonight at 21:30 (forecast: +0.4%, core +0.3%), so don’t make a large directional bet ahead of the data.