The price of $ZEC is in a firm downtrend, displaying the classic structure of a bear market. After a powerful downward impulse from the $1,297 level, the price tried to find support around $948 and is now consolidating near $966. On the four-hour chart, all the key moving averages are aligned in perfect bearish order, creating a dense ceiling and applying constant pressure on the price. Any attempts by buyers to lift the asset still look like feeble efforts to turn a heavy ship around single-handedly.
The hourly timeframe reveals some interesting market psychology. The RSI is in oversold territory, which often traps inexperienced traders who rush to buy an asset in anticipation of an imminent reversal. However, in a strong trend, oversold conditions can persist for a very long time. The current lull is more likely to be large players accumulating liquidity ahead of their next move. Sellers are allowing the price to bounce slightly so they can build short positions at a better price, so any rise toward the moving averages will most likely be firmly rejected.
In the current situation, the clear priority remains the continuation of the decline. Trying to catch a bottom in a falling market means swimming against the current. It makes more sense to wait for a corrective bounce to the resistance zone and join the dominant selling pressure.
Short. Entry: Consider entering in the $975–$985 zone. This is where the price may test the hourly moving averages and encounter resistance.
Targets: First (TP1) at $948 (a retest of the recent low). Second (TP2) at $920 (the next psychological level). Third (TP3) at $880 (an extended target if momentum is strong).
Stop-loss: $1010. Placing the stop above the recent local high and the 4-hour EMA(7) will protect your account, since a break above this level would invalidate the bearish scenario and signal a shift in sentiment.
In a strong downtrend, bounces aren't for buying—they're opportunities to sell at a better price. A trend is like a heavyweight train, and jumping in front of it in the hope of stopping it is the worst idea in the market.
Question for the audience: Which signal is stronger confirmation that the decline is resuming: a break below the recent low on higher volume, or the price's failure to break through the hourly moving averages?