As soon as CPI was released on Tuesday night, the market lost steam. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus the market’s forecast of just 0.3%, while core CPI also came in a notch hotter than expected. Bitcoin slid to $72,853, Ethereum to $2,022, and the Fear and Greed Index sat at 26, still firmly in fear territory.

But this may just be the appetizer. The really tough stretch lies ahead: PPI tomorrow night, Nvidia’s earnings next Tuesday, followed by Anthropic’s IPO pricing and the minutes from the Fed’s October meeting. Then, on December 8, comes the year’s final rate decision. Seven days, four hurdles, one after another.

First, what’s already in the books. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, down from September’s 0.6%, but not as much as the market had hoped. Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month for the third consecutive month, showing more persistence than expected. Even more striking was September’s PPI: up 1.3% month over month and 6.3% year over year. Upstream price pressures haven’t eased at all. That’s why tomorrow night’s October PPI report matters so much—it will determine whether the Fed raises rates by 25 or 50 basis points in December. CME rate futures are now pricing in roughly a 91% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and about a 9% chance of a 50-basis-point hike. The numbers look settled, but last week nobody was even talking about 50 basis points; now it’s on the table.

Tomorrow night at 21:30 Beijing time, October PPI will be released. The market expects a month-over-month increase of +0.4%, with core PPI up +0.3%; year over year, due to the base effect, it may rise from 6.3% to 6.6%. There are three possible scenarios, and the market reaction would be completely different in each. If the figures meet expectations, the market will likely breathe a sigh of relief at first, but don’t count on a major rebound—the rate-hike expectations are already priced in, and relief doesn’t mean a trend reversal. If the figures come in below expectations, especially if core month-over-month growth falls below 0.2%, discussion of a 50-basis-point move will quickly cool, giving risk assets the most room to catch their breath. If the figures come in above expectations, with core month-over-month growth jumping above 0.4%, the probability of a 50-basis-point move will rise, the dollar and Treasury yields will climb together, and crypto will likely take another hit. Of the three scenarios, the middle one is most likely, but the third is the one we need to guard against most.

After the U.S. market closes next Tuesday, Nvidia will report its third-quarter earnings; that’s early morning on November 18, Beijing time. The market expects revenue of around $109 billion, nearly double year over year. Nvidia’s own guidance is around $108 billion, plus or minus 2%. The numbers themselves will likely be solid. The real focus will be the earnings call: whether AI demand can sustain such a high growth rate, and how rising memory prices will squeeze gross margins in the fourth quarter. Anthropic’s IPO roadshow is also underway that same week, with a price range of $70 to $78. It plans to price the offering on November 18 and list on the 19th. Taken together, these two events pose the question: Is AI still making money, and is it still worth assigning a high valuation to? Crypto has been closely tied to the AI narrative in this cycle, so both Nvidia’s earnings and Anthropic’s pricing will directly affect risk appetite.

Turning to crypto, let’s look at $BNB. Today $BNB fell 2.82% to $660.94, a steeper drop than Bitcoin or Ethereum. In this kind of market, exchange tokens often fall first—when investors seek safety, they first pull out of high-beta assets. Looking ahead, if PPI comes in above expectations, $BNB will likely continue to underperform the broader market; if PPI is moderate and Nvidia’s earnings also beat expectations, $BNB has greater upside potential in a rebound. The logic is simple: it falls more when prices drop, and rises more when they climb. As for $XRP, it’s at $1.035, down 1.81%. $XRP has had few catalysts of its own this cycle, and the ETF narrative has also cooled. It’s basically just following the broader market. When macro conditions are unfavorable, there’s no independent story to drive it; it mostly moves passively with the market.

Here are a few things to watch next: tomorrow night at 21:30, PPI—see whether core month-over-month growth is 0.3% or moves toward 0.4%; early morning on November 18, Nvidia’s earnings report and conference call—listen to what management says about fourth-quarter gross margins; the Fed’s October meeting minutes, released the same day—see how much officials disagree about the size of a December rate hike; and the policy meeting itself on December 8–9. Volatility will be high over the next few days. If you’re heavily positioned, don’t try to call the bottom before the news comes out; there’s no harm in waiting for the data before acting. Volatility is extreme, so participate with caution.