Wednesday, November 11, 2026, morning Mexico time
Bitcoin is trading around $73,730, down between 0.2% and 0.4% in the session, and remains below $74,000. The 24-hour low is $72,691, the same level it touched after Tuesday’s inflation data, while the high is $74,843.82.
The market is still digesting the hotter-than-expected U.S. October CPI: headline inflation rose 0.4% month over month versus 0.3% expected, while core inflation rose 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. It was the third consecutive monthly reading to come in above expectations.
## The Fed at the center of the story
The direct consequence is that the market is now pricing in a rate hike in December. The probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the December 9 meeting is close to 90%, according to CME FedWatch, and the probability of a 50-basis-point increase has risen to between 11% and 15%.
Goldman Sachs added a third rate hike to its forecast on Wednesday: in addition to December, it now expects another 25-basis-point increase in March 2027, and has pushed back the first rate cut to December 2027.
Today is Veterans Day in the United States, with no economic data releases and the bond market closed, so the rate driver is on pause for a day. The next data release is the PPI, on Friday, November 13 at 07:30 Mexico time, forecast at +0.4% month over month.
## ETFs and liquidations: selling continues, but is slowing
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $95 million on Tuesday, November 10, their fourth consecutive day of outflows. In 2026, net outflows have already exceeded $1,100 million.
The pace, however, is slowing: outflows were $201 million on Monday, $412 million on Friday, and $430 million on Thursday. BlackRock's IBIT fund has recorded about $1,660 million in outflows over seven sessions.
Liquidations following the CPI release reached about $723 million over 24 hours, mostly from long positions. The fear and greed index is at 29, in fear territory.
Another factor to watch today: MSCI will publish its list of companies affected by its new rules this afternoon, around 16:00 Mexico time. Strategy is at risk of being removed from the index, with estimated forced selling of about $2,800 million, although this would not require it to sell its bitcoin.
## The most important indicators to watch
- Price and range: $73,730, between $72,691 and $74,843.82 over 24 hours. A close below $73,000 would open the way toward $70,000.
- 200-day moving average: around $73,150-$73,191. This is the line separating a shallow correction from a deeper one.
- Immediate support: $72,691-$73,200. Nearby resistance: $74,005-$74,470.
- Lost support: $74,810.8. Recovering it and holding above it would be the first step toward a recovery.
- Major resistance: $75,200-$75,500, the 50-week moving average, followed by $76,100-$76,378. The 4-hour EMA 8 is at $76,482.
- 12-hour KDJ: K 30.0 above D 27.6 by 2.4 points, with J at 34.8. The gap between them has widened since Tuesday morning, but J remains below 50.
- 8-hour and 6-hour KDJ: still trending downward. On the 8-hour chart, K is 35.1, below D at 38.2, and J is 28.9. On the 6-hour chart, K is 39.0, below D at 40.9, and J is 35.3.
- 2-hour KDJ: the strongest of the day. K is 63.4, above D at 54.9 by 8.5 points, and J is 80.6; MACD is positive at 55.6. It is a strong rebound on this time frame, but the price remains below its EMA 8 at $73,838.5.
- 1-hour, 30-minute, and 15-minute KDJ: turning downward again. On the 1-hour chart, K is 55.9, below D at 64.3, and J is 39.2. On the 30-minute chart, K is 50.7, below D at 58.8, and J is 34.6. On the 15-minute chart, K is 31.4, below D at 44.3, and J is 5.5.
- RSI: 33.1 over 12 hours, 37.4 over 8 hours, 35.0 over 6 hours, 39.3 over 4 hours, and 43.1 over 2 hours. None are above 50.
- MACD: still negative over 12 hours (-150.8), 8 hours (-85.9), and 6 hours (-25.0). Only on the 2-hour and 1-hour charts is DIF already above DEA.
The reading is the same across almost all time frames: the 2-hour rebound has strength, but neither the longer nor shorter time frames are confirming it. To talk about a recovery lasting at least 24 hours, the price would first need to hold above $73,951-$74,470, then above the 12-hour EMA 8 at $74,556.4 and above $74,810.8, and then above $75,200-$75,500.
Sources: BLS via CoinDesk and CNBC, CME FedWatch, SoSoValue via Bitcoin.com News and CoinDesk, CoinGlass, Finnhub/Binance.
This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.
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