#Bitcoin price action: Last week, I mentioned that the rebound couldn’t hold above 82,000. If the price drops again, we’ll need to look for solid support.
So far, since breaking below the MA120 support, the price has shown no convincing signs of a bottom on either the hourly or daily timeframe. Clearly, there’s no consensus on support yet. Next, we’ll watch how the price tests the area around 73,000 and the MA200.
If the price falls below 73,000, first watch whether it can quickly close back above that level on the hourly timeframe. Then see whether the rebound can stay strong and produce signs of a bottom on the hourly timeframe, eventually extending to the daily timeframe. If bottoming signals remain unclear, be alert to further downside.
In the latest price action, the initial test of support sparked a rebound, but it was weak on the hourly timeframe. Watch whether the next few hourly candles can close higher quickly. If the rebound fails, expect a further pullback.
On the data front, watch for inflows into #BTC ETFs. In the crypto market, keep an eye on whether major stablecoins USDT and USDC are seeing inflows.
At this stage, influenced by U.S. equities, risk markets are pricing in a 50-basis-point rate hike in December. This sentiment will take time to digest. There’s no need to panic, but it will weigh on risk appetite. If the price breaks convincingly below 73,000 and then the round-number level of 70,000, be alert: the daily pullback could extend toward the 65,000 range. Adjust your outlook and strategy accordingly!
As for the trend, I’m still not bearish. Between this week and the December rate decision, if U.S. equities and BTC continue to price in a 50-basis-point hike and undergo a deeper pullback, I think that would be a good buying opportunity. Once expectations of a rate hike are fully priced in and Brent breaks decisively below $90, risk markets should rebound. Even if a 50-basis-point hike is confirmed in December, once the decision is out of the way, the removal of this macroeconomic headwind could actually make the rebound more sustained!#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压
So far, since breaking below the MA120 support, the price has shown no convincing signs of a bottom on either the hourly or daily timeframe. Clearly, there’s no consensus on support yet. Next, we’ll watch how the price tests the area around 73,000 and the MA200.
If the price falls below 73,000, first watch whether it can quickly close back above that level on the hourly timeframe. Then see whether the rebound can stay strong and produce signs of a bottom on the hourly timeframe, eventually extending to the daily timeframe. If bottoming signals remain unclear, be alert to further downside.
In the latest price action, the initial test of support sparked a rebound, but it was weak on the hourly timeframe. Watch whether the next few hourly candles can close higher quickly. If the rebound fails, expect a further pullback.
On the data front, watch for inflows into #BTC ETFs. In the crypto market, keep an eye on whether major stablecoins USDT and USDC are seeing inflows.
At this stage, influenced by U.S. equities, risk markets are pricing in a 50-basis-point rate hike in December. This sentiment will take time to digest. There’s no need to panic, but it will weigh on risk appetite. If the price breaks convincingly below 73,000 and then the round-number level of 70,000, be alert: the daily pullback could extend toward the 65,000 range. Adjust your outlook and strategy accordingly!
As for the trend, I’m still not bearish. Between this week and the December rate decision, if U.S. equities and BTC continue to price in a 50-basis-point hike and undergo a deeper pullback, I think that would be a good buying opportunity. Once expectations of a rate hike are fully priced in and Brent breaks decisively below $90, risk markets should rebound. Even if a 50-basis-point hike is confirmed in December, once the decision is out of the way, the removal of this macroeconomic headwind could actually make the rebound more sustained!#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压
