Here’s the conclusion upfront: the calendar date has arrived, but that doesn’t mean the unlock has taken place. Tonight’s drop in JCT was a reversal of the short squeeze from the day before yesterday, not locked tokens entering the market.

Key data: Gate perpetuals are currently around 0.00588, down about 47% in 24 hours, with a high of 0.0117 and a low of 0.005333; trading volume is about 52.93 million U. The main sell-off ran from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. The 10 p.m. candle saw about 8.45 million U in volume, surged to 0.008193, then fell back to around 0.006.

The data is from around 23:19 tonight, Shanghai time. Market data is from Gate perpetuals; locked balance was checked before publication.

First, why did it fall?

The night before last, JCT surged from around 0.0025 to 0.014795, gaining more than threefold in a day. The account long-short ratio was only around 0.47, which looked more like a short squeeze. Third-party calendars listed around 1.2 billion tokens set to be released today, about 2.4% to 2.5% of the total supply. The official tokenomics table says tokens are released linearly each month after a one-year lockup; the first release date could also be read literally as December 10. Today, the market sold first based on the calendar, but I checked five locked-token addresses whose balances matched the amounts in the tokenomics table, and their balances are unchanged—not a single token has been transferred out. So for now, I’d treat this move as a calendar-driven trade, not as unlocked tokens already hitting the market.

Next, let’s look at who’s buying the dip, using three sets of data.

First, price and volume. At 3 a.m. this morning, JCT hit a daily high of 0.0117. The 9 a.m. candle fell from 0.0106 to 0.0096 on about 3.94 million U in volume. It then slid to a daily low of 0.005333 around 6 p.m., with roughly 29 million U in volume over nine hours. At 9 p.m., it bounced to 0.007424. Volume peaked at 10 p.m. at about 8.45 million U; after reaching 0.008193, the price fell back to around 0.006. The short squeeze unwound during the day, then buyers stepped in to chase the rebound at night.

Second, open interest and long-short positioning. At 5 a.m. this morning, notional open interest was around 4.54 million U, still below the high of about 6.17 million U from the day before yesterday. The 9 a.m. sell-off took it down to around 3.79 million U; near the evening low it was about 2.33 million U, and now it’s around 2.6 million U. The account long-short ratio rose from about 0.53 in the morning to around 1.11 now, meaning more accounts are net long. For large traders, the ratio by position size fell from around 1.20 in the morning to about 0.94 now; by account count, it’s around 0.58, indicating a net short bias. Retail accounts bought the dip; large traders didn’t turn net long with them.

Third, liquidations and a comparison with Bitcoin. Based on today’s hourly data, long liquidations totaled around 152,000 U, while short liquidations were about 71,000 U. Short liquidations were concentrated in the 9 p.m. and 10 p.m. rebound, at around 19,000 U and 17,000 U, respectively. BTC is now around 74,300, down about 1.0% over 24 hours, with a daily high of 75,536 and a low of 73,231. Volume is around 5.24 billion U, and notional open interest is about 4.56 billion U. Around 9 p.m., U.S. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, while core CPI rose 0.3%; both were higher than expected. BTC briefly plunged to 73,231 before recovering. JCT’s main sell-off began at 9 a.m., so it wasn’t moving in step with BTC.

My take: this was a calendar-date short-squeeze unwind, not an actual token unlock. The locked wallets haven’t moved; accounts bought at the lows, while large traders remain net short by position size. In the short term, I’d treat this as a spike being digested: I wouldn’t assume 0.005333 marks a complete flush-out, or that the overnight rebound signals a new trend.

What would prove me wrong: if these locked-token addresses transfer out an amount comparable to the calendar’s estimate, accompanied by a high-volume continuation lower, I’d have to acknowledge that supply is coming onto the market. Conversely, if JCT closes and holds above 0.0117 on strong volume, while notional open interest climbs back to around 4.54 million U and holds there, this view is invalidated too.

Next, I’m watching three things. First, whether these five locked-token addresses transfer anything out; if they remain inactive, I’ll check again on December 10. Second, whether 0.005333 holds on volume, and whether open interest keeps falling from 2.6 million or starts climbing back toward 4.54 million. Third, whether the account long-short ratio of around 1.11 leads to another washout of retail longs during a rebound, and whether the large-trader ratio by position size, around 0.94, moves back above 1.

Let’s check the numbers against my previous call. On November 8, I said this was a short squeeze, not an actual unlock, and that my view would be invalidated if JCT closed and held above 0.014795 on strong volume while notional open interest returned to around 6.17 million U. Today’s high was only 0.0117, and open interest peaked at about 4.54 million U, so the invalidation conditions weren’t met. The funding rate has also fallen from around 0.0981% per 4 hours then to about 0.024% now.

One last question: the calendar marked today as the release date, but not a single token has moved from the locked-token addresses. Do you think the longs buying at these lows are picking up a bargain—or taking on someone else’s supply overhang?

This is only an observation of market activity and is not investment advice.

$JCT $BTC