Waller said one thing in London today that crushed the crypto market’s last hopes for a rate cut.
A 25-basis-point hike in December is his baseline expectation; even if CPI cools tonight, he’ll still vote for a hike. If core CPI rises by ≥0.3% month over month, a 50-basis-point hike should be on the table.
The probability of a December hike on CME FedWatch jumped straight from 76.3% to 96.3%. Bitcoin plunged from 74,700 to 74,100, while Nasdaq futures also tumbled.
The question now isn’t “whether to hike,” but “by how much.” A rate cut? That’s no longer possible in 2026.
A 25-basis-point hike in December is his baseline expectation; even if CPI cools tonight, he’ll still vote for a hike. If core CPI rises by ≥0.3% month over month, a 50-basis-point hike should be on the table.
The probability of a December hike on CME FedWatch jumped straight from 76.3% to 96.3%. Bitcoin plunged from 74,700 to 74,100, while Nasdaq futures also tumbled.
The question now isn’t “whether to hike,” but “by how much.” A rate cut? That’s no longer possible in 2026.