Regardless of tonight’s CPI data, it is unlikely to change the Fed’s overall direction toward raising interest rates.
If there’s no hike in December, there will still be one in 2027; it’s only a matter of timing.
October’s nonfarm payrolls came in well above expectations, signaling continued economic resilience. Officials such as Barkin have made clear that inflation remains the main risk, and the Fed has limited patience with inflation following strong employment data. Markets have priced in a greater than 80% chance of a rate hike in December. Even if the data comes in soft, subsequent employment and inflation data could still support a tightening path.
My view is that tonight’s CPI data is more likely than not to come in slightly above expectations, further reinforcing rate-hike expectations.
$BTC is currently consolidating around 74.5k. Key levels to watch are support at 73.5k–74k and resistance at 75.5k–76k. If support gives way, watch 73k; a breakout above resistance needs volume confirmation.
The data won’t change the medium-term structure, but its release is bound to trigger high volatility. Watch out for wicks in either direction; leveraged positions are vulnerable to being stopped out. #CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
If there’s no hike in December, there will still be one in 2027; it’s only a matter of timing.
October’s nonfarm payrolls came in well above expectations, signaling continued economic resilience. Officials such as Barkin have made clear that inflation remains the main risk, and the Fed has limited patience with inflation following strong employment data. Markets have priced in a greater than 80% chance of a rate hike in December. Even if the data comes in soft, subsequent employment and inflation data could still support a tightening path.
My view is that tonight’s CPI data is more likely than not to come in slightly above expectations, further reinforcing rate-hike expectations.
$BTC is currently consolidating around 74.5k. Key levels to watch are support at 73.5k–74k and resistance at 75.5k–76k. If support gives way, watch 73k; a breakout above resistance needs volume confirmation.
The data won’t change the medium-term structure, but its release is bound to trigger high volatility. Watch out for wicks in either direction; leveraged positions are vulnerable to being stopped out. #CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验