CPI data is about to be released, and it will determine sentiment around a December rate hike!!
The data is out again, and it’s killing people. If you haven’t prepared for what’s coming, take a look. In this post, I’ll share my own forecast and trading strategy. This time, there won’t be a year-on-year CPI comparison, which many people may not know. The U.S. government shut down last October, so there were no staff available to collect price data. That means they can’t calculate the year-on-year figure this time; only the month-on-month figure will be released.
I predict tonight’s CPI data will be positive for the market. Don’t be fooled by the nonfarm payrolls increase to 165,000. A bill is very likely to pass soon, and negotiations in the Middle East could lead to the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Crude oil prices have plunged. If oil prices continue to fall, they’ll drag down overall CPI and inflation will ease. The market will then lower its rate-hike expectations and may even start pricing in rate cuts early. The dollar will keep weakening, which would benefit risk assets like gold and crypto. So after tonight’s CPI data is released, I expect the market to rise first and then fall.
Those are my thoughts on the CPI data. Please take them for reference only!!
#CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验 #Anthropic拒绝延期IPO，本周路演估值几何？ $BTC $ETH
The data is out again, and it’s killing people. If you haven’t prepared for what’s coming, take a look. In this post, I’ll share my own forecast and trading strategy. This time, there won’t be a year-on-year CPI comparison, which many people may not know. The U.S. government shut down last October, so there were no staff available to collect price data. That means they can’t calculate the year-on-year figure this time; only the month-on-month figure will be released.
I predict tonight’s CPI data will be positive for the market. Don’t be fooled by the nonfarm payrolls increase to 165,000. A bill is very likely to pass soon, and negotiations in the Middle East could lead to the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Crude oil prices have plunged. If oil prices continue to fall, they’ll drag down overall CPI and inflation will ease. The market will then lower its rate-hike expectations and may even start pricing in rate cuts early. The dollar will keep weakening, which would benefit risk assets like gold and crypto. So after tonight’s CPI data is released, I expect the market to rise first and then fall.
Those are my thoughts on the CPI data. Please take them for reference only!!
#CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验 #Anthropic拒绝延期IPO，本周路演估值几何？ $BTC $ETH
