In early October, Ethena turned off the money printer. Since September 30, USDe stakers have no longer received ENA rewards. The subsidies used to drive growth had totaled more than $800 million. In theory, stopping new issuance should be bullish. But ENA fell 31% in a month and is now at $0.152, down 90% from its peak. Turning off the money printer didn’t save the token price.
USDe is a synthetic dollar pegged to $1. It isn’t backed by bank deposits; instead, it earns funding rates by hedging spot positions with futures shorts. Its supply surged to $14.7 billion in October 2025, but after the liquidation cascade on October 10, it had shrunk by 56% by the end of December. Today, it’s down to just $4.93 billion—$10 billion below its peak.
On September 2, token holders voted to approve the fee switch. It will only activate once USDe’s 14-day average supply returns to $7.5 billion, with 95% of the foundation’s net revenue used to buy back ENA. The biggest thing about this switch is that it’s still turned off. USDe is at $4.93 billion, still $2.57 billion short of $7.5 billion—it needs to grow another 52% to get there. The ENA bought back won’t be burned; all 15 billion tokens will remain in circulation.
The supply-side numbers are more straightforward. On October 5, the final batch of investor allocations was released all at once. ENA fell 11.6% that week, and the protocol saw net outflows of $104 million. On November 1, another 275 million tokens were unlocked, equal to 1.83% of the total supply. On November 2 and 5, foundation and team wallets received another 40.6 million and 93.8 million tokens, respectively. On October 30, the attacker behind the Binance hack dumped 217.5 million ENA. ENA fell 7.26% that day, and USDe briefly slipped to $0.9974.
The fundamentals don’t look too bad on paper. In its third-quarter report, the reserve ratio for USDe was 101.43%, and the reserve fund held $62.57 million. But none of that has translated into growth in USDe’s supply yet. The reserve ratio sounds reassuring, but estimates suggest that more than half of the collateral is deployed in lending.
For retail investors, it’s important to look at these separately. USDe hasn’t had any major problems maintaining its peg; the brief depeg was resolved within a few hours. ENA is a different story: its value depends entirely on whether USDe can grow from $4.9 billion back to $7.5 billion. The buyback switch is real, but it won’t spend a cent until the threshold is reached. ENA holders are really waiting for USDe’s supply to grow again. The next unlock is on December 2. It’s smaller, but that won’t lower the $7.5 billion threshold.
My take is simple: Ethena is on the right track. The money printer is off, the buyback rules are in place, and reserves are sufficient. But demand for ENA has to wait for USDe to grow back to $7.5 billion. Until that threshold is reached, the bullish news is only on paper.
Do you hold ENA or USDe? How long do you think it’ll take USDe to grow back to $7.5 billion?
— Xiao Kai, Web3 retail investor
This article shares personal opinions only and does not constitute investment advice. Data sources: CoinGecko, CoinStats, CryptoBriefing, and public reports. Figures reflect estimates at the time of publication. Market conditions can change at any time; please assess the risks for yourself.