The logic behind this short position is straightforward: after a rise of nearly $70, plenty of people are chasing longs, but the price keeps running into the previous-high resistance zone. Upper wicks are getting longer and volume is shrinking—at a point of fading momentum, betting on mean reversion is more reliable than guessing the direction. I wait for a pullback candle to confirm, enter, and immediately move my stop to breakeven. I don’t predict CPI; I just manage my own risk. Even if tonight’s data proves me wrong, this trade will only be back where it started.

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