The probability of a December rate hike jumped from about 67% to about 77% in a week. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.28 billion in net outflows over the week, wiping out all their net inflows for the year. Wintermute’s November 9 review pointed to the backdrop: Friday’s nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, versus expectations of about 60,000.
$BTC touched $81,000 on Wednesday, then gave it all back on Friday. Sunday’s low was around $73,500, and the weekly close fell below the 50-week moving average at $75,500, ending a seven-week streak above it. More than $1 billion in positions were liquidated on Monday, with $ETH liquidations exceeding Bitcoin’s; Bitcoin’s were almost entirely long positions.
Wintermute’s conditions are straightforward: it will turn positive only if the daily close is above $80,000 and ETFs record a week of net inflows. A break below $73,000 and the 200-day moving average would put $68,000 in view. Neither of these thresholds is an indicator of the crypto market itself.
#比特币 #ETF资金流向 #Macro
$BTC touched $81,000 on Wednesday, then gave it all back on Friday. Sunday’s low was around $73,500, and the weekly close fell below the 50-week moving average at $75,500, ending a seven-week streak above it. More than $1 billion in positions were liquidated on Monday, with $ETH liquidations exceeding Bitcoin’s; Bitcoin’s were almost entirely long positions.
Wintermute’s conditions are straightforward: it will turn positive only if the daily close is above $80,000 and ETFs record a week of net inflows. A break below $73,000 and the 200-day moving average would put $68,000 in view. Neither of these thresholds is an indicator of the crypto market itself.
#比特币 #ETF资金流向 #Macro