Today’s market in a nutshell: it hasn’t collapsed, but it hasn’t recovered either. The real test isn’t tonight—it’s tomorrow night.
Those 10 minutes on Sunday night set the tone for the whole day. BTC plunged from $75,600 to $73,500 in 10 minutes. ETH took an even harder hit, dropping nearly 7% in 10 minutes to $2,060. Liquidations across the market topped $1 billion in 24 hours, with ETH alone accounting for $448 million. The trigger was that Nvidia story—Jensen Huang admitted to an extramarital affair; the board was investigating foreign intelligence targeting him over that matter. Those are two separate things, so don’t conflate them.
By tonight, BTC had reclaimed the $74,000 level, trading around $74,682, down 1.7% over 24 hours. It has fallen 8% in five days and 10.4% over the past month. Its overnight low was $73,510, while the 200-day moving average sits around $73,200. In other words, that drop landed right on the 200-day line without breaking below it. ETH hasn’t been so lucky: at $2,121, it’s down 5.3%. Sunday’s close was its first close below the 200-day line since August 18.
Sentiment and money are both heading in the wrong direction. The Fear & Greed Index is at 29, marking a fourth straight day in the fear zone. Spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $1.282 billion last week, their biggest weekly outflow since late June, with $412 million flowing out on Friday alone. Prices are still hovering around the 200-day moving average, but money and sentiment have already headed for the exits. That’s the biggest contradiction today.
It’s just as contradictory in U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 rose 0.31% and the Nasdaq gained 1.09% on Friday, making it look like a rebound. But over the full week, the S&P 500 fell 2.7% and the Nasdaq dropped 3.4%, marking the Nasdaq’s fourth consecutive weekly decline. Futures turned positive in premarket trading tonight, led by the Dow, up 0.73%. The Nasdaq was up just 0.21%, held back once again by Nvidia, which fell more than 6% premarket to $175.23. Cloudflare’s earnings surprise sent its stock up 13% on Friday—the only bright spot last week—but one tree can’t make a forest.
Binance withdrawals have taken another step toward resuming: APT and HYPE withdrawals are back, and Alpha withdrawals have also resumed on BSC, Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum. They’re still being restored in stages, so it’s not a full resumption yet. Binance has also changed CFOs: Kaiser Ng has stepped down, and Justin Yek has taken over.
Three things to watch tomorrow. The biggest one: October CPI is due Tuesday at 21:30. The month-over-month forecast is +0.3%, with core CPI at +0.2%; year-over-year figures won’t be released this time. Markets are now pricing in nearly an 80% chance of a rate hike in December. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, we’ll have to watch this drama unfold all over again. After that, keep an eye on Nvidia’s earnings on November 17 and the House’s closed-door briefing on November 18.
The market opens at 22:30 tonight. First, see how Nvidia opens, then whether BTC can hold 73,500. Before CPI, don’t rush to conclusions—or to buy the dip.
Put simply, the storm isn’t today. It’s tomorrow night.