The Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates again on October 28. Since the beginning of the year, the price of WTI crude oil has risen by nearly 73%, and household inflation expectations have increased by half a percentage point. Core inflation remains at the same levels as at the beginning of the year; however, September’s CPI—which we analyzed here last week—exceeded forecasts, both in its headline and core rates.

Yields have also risen. The yield on two-year Treasury bonds, which reflects market expectations about the path of official interest rates, has increased by more than one percentage point this year, reaching 4.8%. This figure is well above the upper limit of the Federal Reserve’s target range (4%), even after the rate hike implemented on September 16.

Since that hike, bitcoin has risen by approximately 10%. If oil prices continue to push inflation expectations higher, it will become increasingly difficult to rule out a second rate hike.
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