Bitcoin is at 75931 now, down 0.33% in 24 hours. The momentum from that huge-volume surge just now has already faded; it didn’t even come close to 76251, and instead has been sliding lower.
The clearest signal is volume: the previous hour saw nearly 300 in volume as it pushed higher, but this hour it’s down to just over 70, while the price is lower than before. A high-volume move that fails to break through, followed by a decline on lower volume, is common during a rebound and suggests fewer buyers are stepping in.
My view is simple: scale into short positions on a rebound to the 76150–76251 range, with a stop at 76380. If it breaks below 75569, then look for 75200. If it really does break above 76300 on strong volume, then I’m wrong—I’ll admit it and exit rather than stubbornly hold on.
The clearest signal is volume: the previous hour saw nearly 300 in volume as it pushed higher, but this hour it’s down to just over 70, while the price is lower than before. A high-volume move that fails to break through, followed by a decline on lower volume, is common during a rebound and suggests fewer buyers are stepping in.
My view is simple: scale into short positions on a rebound to the 76150–76251 range, with a stop at 76380. If it breaks below 75569, then look for 75200. If it really does break above 76300 on strong volume, then I’m wrong—I’ll admit it and exit rather than stubbornly hold on.