The same $70K, and the two betting markets are already arguing.
On Polymarket, the odds of hitting $70K before the end of $BTC are now 57%, up from 52% yesterday—a 5-point jump overnight. The odds of hitting $70K in November are 43%, while the odds of hitting $72,500 are 61%.
But Kalshi refuses to agree: for closing the year in the $70K–$75K range, Kalshi is at 17.5%, while Polymarket’s U.S. market is only at 13%—a 4.5-point gap. For the $65K–$70K range, it’s 11.2% versus 8%, a further 3.2-point gap.
One side is betting real money that things will keep sliding, while the other side’s pricing doesn’t line up at all. The current price is $75,766, just $5,766 above $70K, with 22 days left in November.
A. Trust Polymarket: $70K is bound to get tested sooner or later; the bears are making their move first.
B. Trust Kalshi: both sides have the pricing wrong; $75K is the real floor.
Which side are you on?
$ETH $SOL
#比特币 #预测市场 #Polymarket
On Polymarket, the odds of hitting $70K before the end of $BTC are now 57%, up from 52% yesterday—a 5-point jump overnight. The odds of hitting $70K in November are 43%, while the odds of hitting $72,500 are 61%.
But Kalshi refuses to agree: for closing the year in the $70K–$75K range, Kalshi is at 17.5%, while Polymarket’s U.S. market is only at 13%—a 4.5-point gap. For the $65K–$70K range, it’s 11.2% versus 8%, a further 3.2-point gap.
One side is betting real money that things will keep sliding, while the other side’s pricing doesn’t line up at all. The current price is $75,766, just $5,766 above $70K, with 22 days left in November.
A. Trust Polymarket: $70K is bound to get tested sooner or later; the bears are making their move first.
B. Trust Kalshi: both sides have the pricing wrong; $75K is the real floor.
Which side are you on?
$ETH $SOL
#比特币 #预测市场 #Polymarket
