With nonfarm payrolls this strong, the senior analyst thinks whether the Fed hikes in December may not depend entirely on them.
“New Fed news agency” Timiraos pointed out a contradiction: Chair Warsh has said he’d rather look at market signals that reflect the future than lagging economic data. And nonfarm payrolls are precisely the kind of lagging data he means.
In other words, when making the call, Warsh may care more about stock prices and financing conditions. If the AI stock sell-off from a few days ago keeps going, tightening financial conditions could actually give the Fed reason to hold off on a hike. So next week, besides CPI, keep an especially close eye on how U.S. stocks open.
First, a recap of SOL: on the 5th, the call was bullish, but don’t touch it if it breaks below 91.44. In the early hours of the 6th, it plunged straight to 89, so that trade lost money. Now it’s swinging between 89 and 90.9. The senior analyst has switched to a wait-and-see stance; it’ll only look promising again if it gets back above 90.9.
Will Warsh watch the data or the market?
$BTC#非农就业数据推升加息预期 $SOL
“New Fed news agency” Timiraos pointed out a contradiction: Chair Warsh has said he’d rather look at market signals that reflect the future than lagging economic data. And nonfarm payrolls are precisely the kind of lagging data he means.
In other words, when making the call, Warsh may care more about stock prices and financing conditions. If the AI stock sell-off from a few days ago keeps going, tightening financial conditions could actually give the Fed reason to hold off on a hike. So next week, besides CPI, keep an especially close eye on how U.S. stocks open.
First, a recap of SOL: on the 5th, the call was bullish, but don’t touch it if it breaks below 91.44. In the early hours of the 6th, it plunged straight to 89, so that trade lost money. Now it’s swinging between 89 and 90.9. The senior analyst has switched to a wait-and-see stance; it’ll only look promising again if it gets back above 90.9.
Will Warsh watch the data or the market?
$BTC#非农就业数据推升加息预期 $SOL
