After listening to a series of discussions on the fundamentals yesterday, considering my own views, and taking another peek at the market, I wrote down this note: ox die, run fast.
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币毒
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This year’s Binance Learning Camp investment research report on Phu Quoc was packed with useful insights.
It covered everything from macroeconomics to fundamentals, rate cuts to rate hikes, AI to storage, regional conflicts to the U.S. dollar and oil—and even yesterday’s U.S. midterm elections.
After listening, I felt that my knowledge of macroeconomics and fundamentals had become much more solid.
The key issue right now—and what’s making the market feel the most uneasy—is that the economy is weakening, but not enough yet to bring about an immediate shift toward easing.
What the BTC market fears most is pricing in rate cuts too early, only to find that rates have to stay high for a while longer—as happened in May and June. Back then, rate expectations shifted from leaning toward cuts to leaning toward hikes, and BTC’s maximum drawdown within its trading range came close to 29%.
Yesterday, Trump’s Republican Party lost control of both chambers of Congress. After the results came in, the crypto market staged a nice rebound. But whether the rally can continue depends not on someone calling for rate cuts again, but on inflation actually coming down.
It covered everything from macroeconomics to fundamentals, rate cuts to rate hikes, AI to storage, regional conflicts to the U.S. dollar and oil—and even yesterday’s U.S. midterm elections.
After listening, I felt that my knowledge of macroeconomics and fundamentals had become much more solid.
The key issue right now—and what’s making the market feel the most uneasy—is that the economy is weakening, but not enough yet to bring about an immediate shift toward easing.
What the BTC market fears most is pricing in rate cuts too early, only to find that rates have to stay high for a while longer—as happened in May and June. Back then, rate expectations shifted from leaning toward cuts to leaning toward hikes, and BTC’s maximum drawdown within its trading range came close to 29%.
Yesterday, Trump’s Republican Party lost control of both chambers of Congress. After the results came in, the crypto market staged a nice rebound. But whether the rally can continue depends not on someone calling for rate cuts again, but on inflation actually coming down.