The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October nonfarm payrolls tonight. The market expects about 65,000 jobs added, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and average hourly earnings up 0.3% month over month. If hourly earnings hit 0.4%, even an in-line jobs figure won’t be enough to save Bitcoin.
Why hourly earnings?
The Fed’s dual mandate is price stability and maximum employment. It held rates steady at its October meeting but struck a hawkish tone (upgrading its description of economic activity from “solid” to “strong” and emphasizing that inflation remains elevated). CME interest rate futures show the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December ranging from 68.7% to 82%, with about 80% already priced in. In September 2026, nonfarm payrolls and hourly earnings both came in above expectations, sending Bitcoin down 2.32% in 30 minutes.
Neither outcome is favorable.
Strong employment (100,000+) → stronger rate-hike expectations, bearish; weak employment (below 40,000) → recession fears, also bearish; overheated wages (0.4%+) → sticky inflation, most bearish.
How do overheated wages affect Bitcoin?
Prolonged high interest rates → higher Treasury yields and rising opportunity costs of holding crypto → capital shifts to yield-bearing assets → ETF outflows accelerate (BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC recently saw daily net outflows exceeding $100 million) → highly leveraged longs get liquidated, creating a “liquidation–decline–more liquidations” cycle.
Pricing saturation means an amplified effect.
With 80% already priced in, there is limited room at the margin: data in line with expectations may prompt a muted reaction, while a significant deviation could trigger a sharp repricing. November 5 was a case in point: all three major U.S. stock indexes plunged (Dow -3.44%, S&P 500 -4.36%, Nasdaq -5.52%), Bitcoin briefly fell below $76,000, and roughly $1.254 billion in positions across the crypto market were liquidated in 24 hours. Long positions accounted for $1.11 billion, or over 88%, and more than 210,000 traders were liquidated.
Technical and fund-flow picture
$76,000 has been tested four times without breaking, making it a critical line. Above it, around 1.05 million BTC held by long-term holders are concentrated in the $80,000–$85,000 range. ETFs saw cumulative outflows of about $1.16 billion from October 30 to November 3, followed by $530 million in net outflows on November 5 alone.
Two possible outcomes
Hourly earnings ≤0.3%: Bitcoin could rebound and test around $80,000, but sustained buying may be lacking. Hourly earnings ≥0.4%: Bitcoin could break below $76,000, falling to $75,000 or even $68,000.
For the medium to long term, watch three things: whether ETFs see net inflows for two consecutive weeks; whether short-term holders collectively stop out within a month (which will determine whether $75,000 support holds); and whether expectations for the terminal rate are revised upward due to overheated wages.
One easily overlooked factor: around 20% of miners are operating at a loss. Bitcoin's price is already below JPMorgan's estimated production cost of $77,000, and has remained there for five months. Miners can't prop up the price by cutting production, so the traditional “cost floor” thesis may no longer hold.
Tonight, don't focus on the number of jobs—watch month-over-month hourly earnings. This data will determine whether Bitcoin continues to trade around $76,000 or begins another leg down.#非农今晚揭晓，美股能否绝地反击？ $BTC
